Wednesday brings a massive 14-game main slate at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Game of the Day: Los Angeles Lakers at Phoenix Suns
This game boasts the highest Vegas total of the day at 225 points and also has a close four-point spread in favor of the home Suns.
These two teams have played each other twice already this season, and there have been several high-scoring fantasy players in these contests. The Lakers and Suns both play at top-10 paces, averaging 100.5 and 101.9 possessions per 48 minutes, and they also defend at bottom-three rates, allowing 110.0 and 109.4 points per 100 possessions. A higher number of possessions plus poor defense equals fantasy gold.
Here’s how the main Phoenix guys performed in their first two meetings:
Four Suns have averaged at least 33 DraftKings points, headlined by Eric Bledsoe, who bounced back on Monday with 52.0 DK points in 39.2 minutes on 37 real points after playing poorly in the previous couple of games. The Lakers have been very poor against all positions, including PGs, who have exceeded salary-based expectations 62 percent of the time.
Centers have played well against the Lakers this season, mostly due to the awful rim protection numbers from everyone in the frontcourt.
Tyson Chandler has been a volatile daily fantasy asset of late due to a nagging sprained ankle, but he did get back up 28.2 minutes on Monday and certainly has double-double upside at an affordable price: He’s $5,200 on FD, where he has an 86 percent Bargain Rating and a massive +6.21 Opponent Plus/Minus.
That leaves us with the three wings: P.J. Tucker, T.J. Warren, and Devin Booker, the latter two of whom have performed very well against the Lakers in the past. Tucker had the best game of the three on Monday, putting up 31.7 FanDuel points in 33.2 minutes, although his 16 rebounds as a SF are a little fluky. Warren put up an absolute dud, scoring only 2.6 FD points in 25.5 minutes. He has odd splits this year, as he’s done very poorly as a favorite . . .
. . . and quite a few of his best games have come against elite defenses:
He has a solid history against the Lakers and gets a dream matchup against Brandon Ingram, but he may have underappreciated risk.
Finally, Booker is a high-usage shooting guard who will be guarded by Nick Young, who could very well be day-dreaming about the 3-point contest instead of playing any semblance of defense in this one.
The minute totals for the Lakers last night against the Kings highlight why they’re so frustrating to own in DFS:
No player got 30 minutes, and only Lou Williams shot more than 11 times. He led the team with with 42.7 FD points in an impressive shooting game, but it was Larry Nance Jr. who was second with 24.7 FD points on only six shots. The Lakers continue to play in high-total games, but because of their volatile minute loads it’s impossible to trust any player in cash games.
Many of these guys have actually done well in back-to-backs this year . . .
. . . and the shooting wings have done well against the Suns this year:
They are certainly fine for guaranteed prize pools — Young, Lou, D’Angelo Russell, and Julius Randle have moderately-high ceilings — but beware of getting sucked into them in cash games.
Point Guards
Russell Westbrook had perhaps his worst game of the year on Monday, scoring only 29.8 FD points in 24.2 minutes on 5-of-19 shooting. He will look to go into the All-Star break on a better note against a Knicks team that ranks 25th in defensive efficiency on the year, allowing 108.6 points/100. He is easily the most expensive PG option at $12,400 FD, but he absolutely smashed the Knicks earlier this year:
Further, he gets them at home, where he has massive splits this year.
Westbrook: DFS Scouting Report
Speaking of home/away splits: Ricky Rubio‘s have been pronounced this season . . .
. . . and he’s on the road tonight, but he also faces the Nuggets, who rank fifth in pace (100.7 possessions/48), last in defensive efficiency (110.8 points/100), and last on the year in production allowed to opposing PGs.
Something’s got to give.
Kyrie Irving has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 games, averaging a +2.74 FD Plus/Minus over that time.
He’s averaged a +6.16 Plus/Minus in two games this year against the Pacers, and he’s remained a big beneficiary with Kevin Love out (per our NBA On/Off tool):
He’s led the Cavs with a 33.9 usage rate in five games sans Love and J.R. Smith this year, and he needs only 34.7 FD points to hit value tonight at his $8,400 price tag.
And on the other side of that matchup, Jeff Teague will likely be low-owned because of his very poor play lately:
However, as you can see, last week Teague dropped 49.0 FD points against the Cavs, who have easily been the worst team against PGs since January 1st.
If you need a bargain guy, T.J. McConnell has gone for 30-plus DK points in each of his last three games and will be defended by Isaiah Thomas, who is 88th out of 88 eligible PGs on the year with a -4.38 Defensive Real Plus-Minus (DRPM).
Also, Emmanuel Mudiay is out again. You know what that means: Fire up Jameer Nelson.
Shooting Guards
James Harden and Giannis Antetokounmpo are the two highest-priced options as usual. Harden has a mediocre matchup against a Miami squad that has played excellent basketball of late and now ranks sixth in defensive efficiency on the year, allowing only 104.1 points/100.
Harden: DFS Scouting Report
Giannis, on the other hand, gets a Brooklyn team that ranks first in pace, averaging 103.7 possessions/48, and 27th on defense, allowing 109.1 points/100. He’s faced Brooklyn three times already and has averaged 52.3 DK points and a +6.10 Plus/Minus on perfect Consistency in those affairs.
His data sans Jabari Parker is brutal . . .
. . . but that includes last game against the Pistons, in which he scored only 24.8 FD points in 36.7 minutes and oddly took only nine shots. These Nets are not the Pistons.
Do we dare?
We probably do not dare.
Klay Thompson will return to the Warriors’ lineup after missing Monday’s loss to the Nuggets with a sore right heel. He’s been excellent of late, exceeding salary-based expectations in nine of his last 10 games and averaging a +6.65 DK Plus/Minus over that time:
Further, he gets a Sacramento team that ranks 23rd in defensive efficiency, allowing 108.5 points/100, and he’s likely to face a combination of Ben McLemore and Arron Afflalo, who have been probably the worst SG defensive tandem in the league this year.
Wesley Matthews has a brutal -3.39 FD Opponent Plus/Minus today against the Pistons, who average a slow 96.9 possessions/48 minutes. This game has the lowest Vegas total by five points at 200, so it will likely be a spot people fade. That said, it’s hard to get Consistency at the SG spot, and Wes has been nothing if not consistent lately:
At just $5,700 DK, he’s still worth rostering in GPPs.
I’m curious how people will handle Brandon Rush, who is second-to-last among all SGs in the slate with an embarrassing mark of 0.5 DK points per minute, yet he played 36.5 minutes last night against the Cavaliers and will likely have to play heavy minutes again with Zach LaVine out for the year and newly-signed Lance Stephenson out with an ankle sprain. Rush is thin for a 14-game slate, but I wonder if people will take a shot on him given his minimum $3,000 DK price tag.
Small Forwards
Kevin Durant has been disappointing of late, exceeding salary-based expectations in only five of his last 10 contests and averaging a -0.43 FD Plus/Minus over that time.
Even with Klay out last game, Durant scored only 38.3 FD points against the Nuggets, who own the worst defense in the league. He shot well, going 10-of-16 from the field, but his usage rate recently has trailed his season-long mark of 26.7 percent. Still, he has a very high ceiling today against this Kings defense and specifically against Afflalo, who ranks 95th out of 100 eligible SGs this year with a -2.57 DRPM.
If Durant decides to be aggressive, things could get ugly.
In the middle salary range for the position sits Andrew Wiggins . . .
. . . and Robert Covington, both of whom have been excellent lately.
Wiggins continues to play heavy minutes — he went 41.1 last night against the Cavs — and he has used an incredibly high number of possessions without LaVine on the court this year. Wiggins has averaged 41.5 FD points and a huge +12.1 Plus/Minus on 32.2 percent usage in nine games sans LaVine.
Likewise, Covington has averaged 26.8 FD points and a +5.7 Plus/Minus in a team-high 30.9 minutes in games without Joel Embiid. Both have nice matchups against the Nuggets and Celtics and remain affordable at $7,900 and $6,400 on FD.
As mentioned above, Giannis played poorly (from a box-score perspective) against the Pistons on Monday, yet the Bucks still won at home 102-89. A lot of that had to do with the excellent play of Michael Beasley, who scored 40.6 FD points in 31.8 minutes thanks to great 10-of-13 shooting. That’s certainly unsustainable, but it’s not ridiculous to think he’ll continue to play solid minutes without Parker in the rotation: In the two games since Jabari’s injury, Beasley has averaged 28.7 FD points in 28.8 minutes per game. At only $4,900 on FD, where he has a 97 percent Bargain Rating, he’s an enticing play against the Nets.
Power Forwards
Because of injuries to several key players, power forward is the position to seek value tonight.
The Nuggets will yet again be without Kenneth Faried, Wilson Chandler, Darrell Arthur, and Danilo Gallinari, which means that Juancho Hernangomez should see heavy minutes. He was a revelation on Monday, scoring 45.0 FD points in 43.2 minutes against the juggernaut Warriors. He made six of his nine 3-pointers in that game and finished with 27 real points and 10 rebounds. He has a much easier matchup tonight against a Minnesota team that continues to struggle defensively, ranking 23rd in efficiency and allowing 108.5 points/100 on the year. They are allowing a bottom-10 mark of 36.4 percent from the 3-point line, and the combination of Hernangomez, Nikola Jokic, and Will Barton will do its best to stretch out the Wolves’ frontcourt.
Frank Kaminsky has continued to play well in Cody Zeller‘s absence:
He’s averaged a +7.74 Plus/Minus over his last 10 games, and in the four games without Zeller and since Spencer Hawes and Roy Hibbert were traded Kaminsky has averaged 33.2 FD points and an impressive +14.9 Plus/Minus in 34.6 minutes per game. Both Zeller and Miles Plumlee have been ruled out tonight versus the Raptors, who have been terrible over the last month and will try to turn around their slump with the Serge Ibaka trade. He will upgrade both their offense and defense, but Kaminsky will likely not have to deal with him at the center spot. He’ll go up against Jonas Valanciunas, who has been poor defending the rim this year.
Offering value, Channing Frye will continue to start in Kevin Love‘s absence. He put up 38.5 FD points in 32.6 minutes last night in his first start since Love’s injury, and he’ll have a nice matchup tonight against Lavoy Allen, who will continue to start for the injured Thaddeus Young if he’s able to go with a sore right knee. The Pacers’ frontcourt is thin right now, and Frye can take advantage from the perimeter against the slower-footed backups.
In eight games this year without Love, Frye has averaged an +8.9 FD Plus/Minus and an impressive 64.1 percent true shooting rate.
As a quick bonus: Dario Saric remains only $5,300 on FD, where he owns a 95 percent Bargain Rating despite posting a massive +7.89 Plus/Minus on 80 percent Consistency over his last 10 games.
Centers
In the two games without Jabari Parker and Miles Plumlee (traded to Charlotte), Greg Monroe has averaged 42.6 FD points and a massive +19.2 Plus/Minus in 28.7 minutes per game off the bench. He put up 48.6 FD points in 31.3 minutes on Monday against a tough Pistons squad and gets a dream matchup tonight versus a Brooklyn team that ranks first in pace and 27th in defensive efficiency. Thon Maker will likely continue to start at center, but he played only 16.8 minutes on Monday. Brooklyn continues to struggle against centers . . .
. . . and just let Marc Gasol put up 45.3 DK points on Monday. Monroe is especially valuable on DK, where his low $5,400 price tag comes with a 98 percent Bargain Rating and a position-high +6.12 Opponent Plus/Minus.
Speaking of high Opponent Plus/Minus marks: Rudy Gobert has a +4.08 mark on DK, where his $7,400 comes with 10 Pro Trends (in our Player Models). He faces Portland, who ranks 10th in pace, averaging 99.6 possessions/48, and 26th in defensive efficiency, allowing 108.9 points/100. Further, the Blazers will be without their best defender in Al-Farouq Aminu (knee), and they also just traded perhaps their best interior defender in Mason Plumlee. Meyers Leonard will likely start opposite Gobert, who isn’t exactly used to defending a high-usage roll man like Rudy.
Portland already ranked 23rd in rebound rate, grabbing only 49.2 percent of the available boards on the year, and they will be without their best two rebounders in Aminu and Plumlee. Gobert has a lot of upside in this matchup.
Kelly Olynyk has been excellent of late despite seeing fewer than 30 minutes per game.
He probably won’t get to that mark tonight — he did get up to 29.3 on Monday versus the Mavericks — but he is only $4,300 DK and gets a Philly team without Embiid. Per nbawowy.com, the 76ers continue to struggle without their stud rim protector: They allow 111.9 points/100 with Embiid off the floor, which is easily worse than Denver’s league-worst rate. The Celtics are currently 10-point home favorites implied for 114.5 points against the 76ers.
Good luck!
News Updates
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