The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a five-game slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Studs
Damian Lillard has been up-and-down this season, resulting in a salary of just $8,400 on DraftKings for today’s matchup with the Philadelphia 76ers that represents his third lowest price tag of the season. Unlike the previous two matchups against the Jazz and Grizzlies, this matchup with the 76ers looks like a good one for DFS purposes. Philly has struggled with opposing PGs all season, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.19 for Lillard, and they’re currently playing at the second fastest pace in the league.
The Celtics have the potential to be shorthanded today against the Houston Rockets, with Marcus Morris and Jaylen Brown both considered questionable. Kyrie Irving posted a usage rate of over 32 percent with both players out of the lineup yesterday against Hornets, but played only 31 minutes on the front end of a back-to-back. If he can see a few more minutes in a pace-up situation against the Rockets, he has the potential for a big game today.
Value
It’s going to be very hard to avoid Ish Smith today, especially on DraftKings at just $4,900. Reggie Jackson is set to miss at least the next six weeks, which means that Smith should move into the starting lineup and see the majority of the PG minutes during that time frame. Smith is currently projected for 30.3 minutes in our Player Models and has historically averaged over 31 DraftKings points with a comparable minute projection:
If that wasn’t enough, he also has possibly the top possible matchup at the position against the Orlando Magic, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.78.
Fast Break
The Magic have been hit really hard by injuries recently, with the most recent casualty being Nikola Vucevic. He’s been ruled out for at least six weeks after getting surgery on his hand, and there’s a chance that Evan Fournier and Aaron Gordon could miss today’s contest as well. That would likely result in a huge role offensively for Elfrid Payton, who has commanded a usage rate of at least 28 percent in three straight games. He’s typically a strong contributor in the peripheral categories, so the idea of getting Payton with some additional scoring upside is intriguing to say the least.
Terry Rozier is coming off back-to-back big games and remains dirt cheap at just $3,800 on FanDuel. Rozier’s minutes should be safe if Brown misses today’s contest and he has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.48 against the Rockets.
Shooting Guard
Studs
Chris Paul is not expected to play today, which means that James Harden should have the green light to dominate the basketball for the Houston Rockets. So far this season, he’s averaging a usage rate of 37.1 percent and over 55 DraftKings points per game with Paul out of the lineup:
In addition to his elite shooting and playmaking skills, Harden has gotten to the line at will recently, making at least 10 free throws in six straight games. He does have a tough matchup today with the Boston Celtics, who currently rank second in the league in defensive efficiency. That said, Boston’s defense has shown some signs of slippage recently and the Rockets’ implied team total of 109.25 ranks first on today’s slate. He’s going to be tough to avoid regardless of matchup on DraftKings, where his $11,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98 percent.
Harden isn’t the only stud SG who’s underpriced on DraftKings. Jimmy Butler has absolutely crushed since the start of December, posting an average Plus/Minus of +7.64 over 13 games. Despite his dominance, his salary has only increased by $400 over that time frame, thanks in part to the fact that his ownership is never quite as high as it should be. He has a Bargain Rating of 99 percent on DraftKings today in a great matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.14. His 12 Pro Trends are the most at the position and tied for the most on the slate overall.
Value
Marcus Smart played close to 35 minutes yesterday, but only managed to convert those minutes into 14 FanDuel points. That definitely seems like an outlier though, with Smart historically providing solid value with a comparable minute projection:
He’s projected for 34.7 minutes again today and has the top Opponent Plus/Minus at the SG position on FanDuel (+4.59). This seems like a prime buy-low opportunity.
Fast Break
Khris Middleton has been playing all the minutes he can handle for the Bucks recently, which has made him one of the safer options at the position on FanDuel. He’s posted a Consistency Rating of 92 percent over the past month, and he should be in an exploitable spot today against the Minnesota Timberwolves. Butler will likely be matched up with Giannis Antetokounmpo, which would leave Middleton a matchup with one of the worst wing defenders in the league in Andrew Wiggins.
Small Forward
Stud
The Bucks have gotten a bit healthier recently, which has had a bit of an impact on Giannis Antetokounmpo from a fantasy perspective. While he’s still played around 36.5 minutes in each of his last two games, that’s a far cry from the 41.2 minutes per game he averaged with Tony Snell out of the lineup. The potential matchup with Butler should also be a difficult one for him: He ranks seventh among all SGs in Defensive Real Plus/Minus (DRPM) this season. That said, he’s seen a nice price decrease for today’s matchup, and his salary does represent a slight savings when compared to Harden’s across the industry. The ownership dynamic between those two studs will be an interesting factor on today’s slate.
Value
Courtney Lee continues to return consistent value on DraftKings, posting a Plus/Minus of at least +5.69 in five of his last seven games. He’s been one of the biggest beneficiaries of the injury to Tim Hardaway Jr, seeing a usage increase of 3.5 percent with him out of the lineup this season. He has a tough matchup today against the San Antonio Spurs, but he’s just too cheap on DraftKings at $4,900.
Fast Break
For the first time all season, Kawhi Leonard could be an option for guarantee prize pools (GPPs). He’s coming off a season-high 26 minutes in his last game and it’s possible he takes another step forward today given that this is an island game for San Antonio. Given his average of 1.25 fantasy points per minute, he could do some real damage at only $6,000 if he can approach the 30 minute mark in today’s contest.
Jonathon Simmons has seen his production decline as the Magic have gotten healthier, but today could be a day where they need him to fill a larger role once again. Jonathan Isaac has already been ruled out, and they’ll be incredibly thin on the wing if Fournier is ruled out as well. So far this season, he’s averaged over 31 FanDuel points per game in the six games without Isaac and Fournier:
Power Forward
Stud
Kristaps Porzingis has seen his salary reduced to just $7,900 on DraftKings, giving him a Bargain Rating of 99 percent. He’s been dreadful from a fantasy perspective recently, averaging a Plus/Minus of -6.59 over his last 10 games, but there is some reason for optimism moving forward. He’s back to playing heavy minutes after returning from an ankle injury and his usage rate of 33.4 percent ranks fourth in the league. The main reason for his poor fantasy numbers has been some abominable shooting numbers over the past week, averaging a paltry 33.5 percent field goal percentage and 25 percent 3-point percentage over that time frame. He looks like a prime candidate for some positive regression, although today’s matchup with the Spurs isn’t exactly a prime spot.
Value
Jayson Tatum has played at least 35 minutes in back-to-back games given the injury to Morris and should be clear for a similar workload again today. The Rockets have been a decent matchup for PFs this season, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.66 for Tatum on today’s slate.
Fast Break
Ryan Anderson’s bizarre home/road shooting splits haven’t been nearly as drastic this season, but he’s still averaging roughly three additional fantasy points when playing outside of Houston this season:
He’s one of the few PFs who presents a better value on FanDuel than DraftKings on today’s slate, with his $4,200 salary resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98 percent, and he could see a few additional minutes with Clint Capela ruled out.
Taj Gibson has been a staple of the Timberwolves lineup all season, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +4.29 on FanDuel over his first 35 games. His salary has come down a bit from its peak and today’s matchup against the Bucks could be a good one for him: They’ve been the worst rebounding team in the league this season.
Center
Studs
Both Joel Embiid and Karl-Anthony Towns have been killing it recently and each has another potentially exploitable matchup today. Both options also seem underpriced on DraftKings, where each has a Bargain Rating of 98 percent.
Lets start with Embiid. He’s a strong bet to lead the position in usage today, with his season-long average of 33.0 percent ranking fifth in the league this season. He has a matchup with the Portland Trailblazers, and while Portland has been strong defensively this season, they have shown some vulnerability at the center position. Embiid’s resulting Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.42 is the fifth highest mark at the position while his 11 Pro Trends rank second.
While those numbers are impressive, it’s hard to look past what Towns brings to the table today. He ranks first in both Opponent Plus/Minus (+7.41) and Pro Trends (12) among today’s centers and has averaged a ridiculous Plus/Minus of +8.38 over his last 10 games. This is the second leg of a back-to-back for the Timberwolves, but Towns played just 30 minutes yesterday and should be one of the more rested options on the team. Only Harden is projected for more ownership on today’s slate.
Value
Bismack Biyombo will start while Vucevic is out for the Magic, which makes him a major value at his current salary on DraftKings. He scored 27.5 DraftKings points in 30 minutes in his first outing as a starter, and he’ll need to play at least that many minutes today to try and combat the size of Andre Drummond for the Pistons.
Fast Break
Most of the top center options are better values today on DraftKings, which could make a guy like Al Horford intriguing on FanDuel. He’s reasonably priced at $7,100 and has posted a Consistency Rating of 86 percent over his last 15 games.
Nene has not exactly taken advantage of the injury to Capela recently, but the potential is there for him to see a few additional minutes today against the Boston Celtics. At just $3,500, he’s the dead minimum on FanDuel.
Good luck!
Photo via Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports
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