The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a two-game slate starting at 8:00 pm ET.
Golden State Warriors (-5.5) @ Houston Rockets – 227.5 total
This game should possess some offensive fireworks. These teams both rank in the top two in offensive efficiency, top six in 3-pointers made and top seven in pace so far this season. The result is a massive 227.5-point total, which is one of the higher marks we’ve seen this year. Historically, anyone projected to get at least 20 minutes of playing time in contests with a comparable total have been solid values:
Lets start with the Warriors. They’ve looked like their old selves after Steph Curry returned to the lineup, scoring 141 and 125 points over their last two games. Curry played 34.5 minutes in their last contest, which would seem to indicate that he’s no longer on any sort of minutes restriction. If that’s the case, he’s almost undoubtedly underpriced on DraftKings at $8,400. Curry has historically crushed with a comparable price tag:
Kevin Durant is also not going to play today with a calf injury, which moves Curry almost into must play territory. He’s posted a usage rate of 35.8 percent and averaged over 59 DraftKings points per 36 minutes in his four games without Durant this season:
Curry isn’t the only member of the Warriors with an appealing price tag on DraftKings. Virtually the entire starting lineup has a Bargain Rating of at least 90 percent:
Draymond Green is extremely appealing at just $6,600, especially considering his history against the Rockets over the past two seasons:
Considering his average price tag during those matchups was approximately $7,700, he can do a whole lot of damage at his current salary. That said, he’s actually been hurt by Durant’s absence this season, averaging 5.5 fewer fantasy points per 36 minutes. That could just be noise in a small sample size, but he did average 2.6 fewer fantasy points per 36 minutes in 18 games without Durant last season as well.
Klay Thompson has actually been a better value than Curry in games without Durant this season, owning a Plus/Minus of +8.2 on DraftKings. He also has the best individual matchup on the team, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.26. He shot the ball really well yesterday and is known for being a streaky player; maybe he can parlay that into another big outing today.
Omri Casspi has historically earned the start whenever Durant has been injured, however he’s questionable for today’s contest with a back injury. If he can’t go, Patrick McCaw or Nick Young could see more run than expected in an awesome game environment. Andre Iguodala should also see heavy run off the bench and should be fresh after not playing in yesterday’s contest.
Stacking up the Warriors seems like a really viable strategy, although it’s one that will likely be very popular for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
The Rockets didn’t skip a beat in their first game without James Harden. Their offensive rating of 113 points was right in line with their season average, while they actually played at a slightly faster pace. This isn’t entirely unexpected – check out Bryan Mears’ excellent piece on how to exploit Harden’s absence – but it’s a good sign that their offense will maintain value moving forward.
So far this season, Chris Paul has been nothing short of spectacular with Harden off the floor, averaging a ridiculous 58.85 DraftKings points per 36 minutes:
That said, he failed to return value in his first full game without Harden, posting a Plus/Minus of -5.81. His usage rate of 22.1 percent was actually lower than his season average, so he didn’t really see the kind of bump that most people expected. Still, there were some encouraging signs. His assist rate increased by 14.6 percent, allowing Paul to hand out 13 dimes in just 31.5 minutes. He also shot just 3 of 13 from the field, which leaves him plenty of room for positive regression. He’s not Harden, but Paul still has massive upside if he can use a few more possessions, shoot a little better, and play more minutes in a competitive game.
One guy who did dominate the ball for the Rockets in their last game was Eric Gordon. He posted a usage rate of 31 percent, which is inline with his average with Harden off the court this season:
He figures to be their number two option moving forward and is very appealing at just $6,900 on FanDuel.
Clint Capela also has some appeal given his past success against the Warriors. He averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.57 against the Warriors in four meetings last season, although that was at a significantly lower price tag. His current $7,500 salary on FanDuel makes him $1,500 more expensive than he was in any of his previous matchups, and there’s always a chance that this game downsizes and leaves Capela spending the majority of his time on the bench.
Gerald Green should be one of the chalkiest value options after a massive performance yesterday against the Magic. He commanded a 30.4 percent usage rate in roughly 28 minutes of playing time and converted that usage into 36.2 FanDuel points. That said, he looks like a prime candidate for some regression today. He shot a ridiculous 60 percent from the field and 70 percent from 3-point range and he’s not going to give you very much in the peripheral categories. He’s priced cheap enough that he can withstand some regression in his shooting numbers, but you’re not crazy to consider fading him given his likely ownership.
Trevor Ariza seems like the most likely candidate to lead the Rockets in minutes today, but he might be the most negatively affected by Harden’s absence. He’s averaged 2.4 fewer fantasy points per 36 minutes with Harden off the court this season and posted a Plus/Minus of -6.13 in yesterday’s contest with the Magic.
Oklahoma City (-1.5) @ Los Angeles Clippers – 213.5 total
This game doesn’t feature nearly the same appeal as the first game on today’s slate, but it does feature the top stud on the slate in Russell Westbrook. The only thing that can stop Westbrook from hitting value these days is a blowout, which is what happened yesterday when the Thunder dismantled the lowly Lakers. His $11,300 price tag on DraftKings is downright comical and is going to make it really hard to avoid Westbrook on today’s slate. Last season he averaged a Plus/Minus of +7.26 and a Consistency Rating of 85.7 percent with a comparable price tag:
The only concern for Westbrook is that this game is on the road for the second leg of a back-to-back, but this may be the last taxing road back-to-back that he’ll face all season. He only played 28 minutes yesterday, so he shouldn’t be too spent for today’s game, especially since there was no need to travel after yesterday’s contest. As long as he avoided the “L.A. flu,” he should be a full go.
While Westbrook’s recent style of play has been great for his fantasy numbers, it hasn’t exactly helped any of his teammates. Paul George could be the one exception. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last five games on DraftKings, thanks in part to a salary decrease of $1,400 over the past month. He’s yet another player with a Bargain Rating of 99 percent on DraftKings, although he probably lacks the same ceiling as the Golden State options.
Steven Adams has quite possibly the best matchup of the day regardless of position. The Clippers have been destroyed by opposing centers all season, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.52 for Adams on today’s slate. He’s likely the safest option on the Thunder outside of Westbrook.
Finally, Turd Terrance Ferguson is coming off a monster performance yesterday and is still priced at the minimum on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Don’t expect another performance of that caliber, but that should solidify his role as the primary fill in for Andre Roberson.
The Clippers probably have the least appeal of the four teams on today’s slate. They have the lowest implied team total of the day at 106 points and could be back at full strength if Austin Rivers makes his return after missing the past two games (currently questionable).
Blake Griffin has the best matchup of the day for the Clippers, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.65. He’s been solid since returning from injury, posting a usage rate of at least 27 percent in all three contests. He also played 36 minutes in his last game against the Grizzlies, which means that he’s likely no longer on a minutes limit. He’ll likely fly under the radar given all the other superstars available on today’s slate, but he has significant upside against the Thunder.
If Rivers doesn’t play, it will make Lou Williams a very strong option at $7,500 on FanDuel. He’s scored 56.4 and 39.4 FanDuel points in his last two games without Rivers and has seen the largest usage bump on the team with him off the court this season:
Outside of those two, it’s tough to trust anyone on the Clippers. DeAndre Jordan has been massively impacted by the return of Griffin, posting a negative Plus/Minus in five straight games. Wesley Johnson and Jawun Evans have started at SF and PG respectively the last two games, but neither has played enough minutes to make an impact for fantasy purposes. One player who could be intriguing is Milos Teodosic. He played a season-high 34 minutes in his last game and has averaged 0.88 fantasy points per minute over the past month. At just $5,100 on DraftKings, he could definitely exceed value if given a similar workload today.
Good luck!
Photo via Kelley L. Cox-USA TODAY Sports
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