The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Logan Gilbert (R) $9,300 Seattle Mariners (-154) vs. Baltimore Orioles
Usually when I discuss Mariners pitchers at home, one of the first points to come up is the park factors at T-Mobile Park. It remains the best pitcher-friendly park in baseball, with a 92 park factor over the past three seasons that translates to 8% fewer runs than a league-average stadium. The interesting thing for Logan Gilbert is that his splits this season are showing the opposite effect.
Gilbert improbably has a 5.60 ERA at home and just a 1.04 mark on the road this season. A quick glance at his game logs suggests he’s faced slightly tougher matchups at home, but the likeliest explanation is that it’s just small-sample variance. In each of the past two seasons, his ERA was much lower at home than on the road. It’s probably a safe bet that he eventually gets there, or close to it, this season.
All of which makes tonight’s matchup for Gilbert especially appealing. This is his second straight start against the Orioles, with the last one coming in Baltimore. He allowed just one run over six innings, striking out five. That worked out to 18.5 DraftKings points, at a park 11% better for hitters than T-Mobile.
Bumping up Gilbert’s performance by the roughly 10% park factor gets him north of 20, which would be an excellent score at his price tag. He has the best Vegas data on the slate and leads in median and ceiling projections while checking in at No. 2 in Pts/Sal. He’s a pretty clear top option tonight.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Robert Gasser (L) $5,500 Milwaukee Brewers (-154) vs. Cleveland Guardians
The only pitcher with a better Pts/Sal projection than Gilbert is Robert Gasser, a 27-year-old southpaw making his 12th career MLB appearance and fifth of the season. Gasser has a fairly wide discrepancy between his actual ERA and his expected ERA, with the former mark at 6.38 and the latter at 3.68 this season.
At a certain point, the factors that contribute to ERA (but not xERA) are sticky. Things like park factors and the defense behind a pitcher – while not reflective of their ability – typically don’t change much in season. However, given the 18.1-inning sample size for Gasser, there’s a solid chance that his ERA works its way down toward his xERA in the very near future.
At the very least, betting markets seem to think so, with Cleveland implied for just four runs and moderate underdogs against the Brewers. They’re a roughly league-average lineup against lefties overall this season but will be without Jose Ramirez, who is their best hitter in general and does his best work against lefties. I buried the lede a bit by not noting the absence of Ramirez earlier, as that’s obviously a big factor in Gasser’s projection.
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MLB DFS Tournament Picks
Hunter Brown ($10,000) Houston Astros (-160) at Detroit Tigers
Hunter Brown is making his first MLB appearance since March as he recovers from the shoulder injury that’s had him on the shelf. It couldn’t come in a better location, as Brown is pitching just a few minutes away from where he played in college at Wayne State University in Detroit. In his limited action this year, Brown had continued the dominant run he was on in 2025, with 17 strikeouts and just one run allowed in 10.2 innings this season. I was hoping he’d be cheaper as he returned from injury, but the price means we should have reasonably low ownership despite the Tigers having a slate-low implied total.
Gerrit Cole (R) $9,500 New York Yankees (-149) vs. Chicago White Sox
Gerrit Cole was dominant in his own return from injury but has since struggled in consecutive starts against the Guardians, totaling just 12 DraftKings points in the two appearances combined. However, he now faces a White Sox team that strikes out at the third-highest rate against righties, with an ownership discount based on his poor recent starts. I prefer Brown as a tournament option if you have the salary, but if you need the $500 – or want to save on ownership – Cole is a fine pivot.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Chicago Cubs:
The Cubs were the top stack on yesterday’s slate and were relatively quiet – outside of Pete Crow-Armstrong, who hit for 2026’s first cycle and finished at 32 DraftKings points. The five total runs the Cubs put up were fine, but not quite enough to dominate tournaments.
Tonight, they’re implied for 5.7 runs against the Rockies, with another solid matchup against Ryan Feltner ($6,300), who has a 5.20 ERA and, surprisingly, a worse mark (7.71) on the road. That’s always relevant for Rockies pitchers, as it’s easy to dismiss poor results as a product of their home ballpark.
Yet again, the real story is the weather. We’re forecasting winds blowing out to right field approaching 20 miles per hour, resulting in a 48% boost to home runs and a 35% boost to total scoring. In theory, it’s an even bigger boost to lefties – since the wind carries better to their pull side – of which there are three in this Cubs stack, counting the switch-hitting Happ.
Plus, with fairly reasonable salaries, we can stack the Cubs and still afford a pair of top pitchers or some other high-upside bats. That separates them from some of the other strong stacks on the slate.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Juan Soto OF ($5,800) New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds (Brady Singer)
One strong stack that’s even cheaper than the Cubs is that of the Mets, whose first five bats can be had for less than $4,000 per player, even with the heavy price tag on Juan Soto. He has the strongest median projection on the slate, as the Mets travel to one of the best home run parks in baseball.
Some of that is due to the matchup. Cincinnati is starting Brady Singer ($6,000), who comes into the contest with both an ERA and underlying numbers in the mid-fives. He’s also been much worse against lefties, as we can see in PlateIQ:
That’s a big boost to Soto but also to Mets stacks in general, with four of their first five hitters batting lefty.
Jacob Wilson SS ($3,800) Athletics vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (Mitch Keller)
The Athletics’ first game back in Sacramento was another example of the excellent park factors there, as they picked up 11 runs in a win over the Pirates. We’ve got another massive total tonight, with the A’s implied for 5.7 runs and Pittsburgh for 5.1.
Unfortunately, the pricing algorithm has more than caught on to that, with salaries on A’s hitters rising massively throughout the year. One exception to that is Wilson, who is projecting for the cleanup spot in the A’s lineup. He’s too cheap for that role on a team with such a strong total, especially since he’s hitting a solid .283 this year.
Spencer Horwitz 1B ($3,800) Pittsburgh Pirates at Athletics (Jack Perkins)
As noted above, the Pirates also have an excellent total tonight against the A’s, thanks to the park factors and a very winnable matchup against the A’s Jack Perkins ($5,000). Perkins has primarily been a reliever this season but has a 6.25 ERA over 36 total innings.
Horwitz is hitting .281 with nine home runs and a .369 wOBA and also gets to bat leadoff for one of the highest-total teams on the slate. He’s also too cheap, though unfortunately he shares a position with the Mets’ first baseman Jared Young. Both are among the best Pts/Sal options on the board today, so I’ll let ownership and salary needs dictate which I roster.
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Pictured: Logan Gilbert
Photo Credit: Imagn
