The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a five-game main slate starting at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook has been an absolute monster over his past 10 games:
After briefly experimenting with the concept of team basketball, Westbrook has reverted to his old ball-dominant ways. He’s posted an average usage rate of 37 percent over his past 10 games, and OKC has gone 8-2 over that time frame. Westbrook was killed in the media at times for his “selfish” play last season, but it seems like that style of play may actually give the Thunder the best chance of winning on a night-to-night basis.
His usage rate could jump to another level in tonight’s game given the potential absence of Paul George. He’s currently questionable with a knee injury, and Westbrook has posted a ridiculous usage rate of 42.4 percent with George off the court this season:
Westbrook is the most expensive player on today’s slate, but he still seems like a bargain given his recently style of play. He averaged a Plus/Minus of +7.64 on FanDuel last season with a comparable price tag.
Value
The Kings PG situation is a bit murky at the moment, but both George Hill and Frank Mason have the potential to return value at their current salaries. Hill is probably the safer option of the two. He’s coming off a poor game against the Phoenix Suns, but has still recorded an average Plus/Minus of +5.34 on DraftKings over his past 10 games. Mason, meanwhile, has the potential for a lot of different outcomes. He’s coming off a game with 34 minutes against the Phoenix Suns, but didn’t crack the 22-minute barrier in any of his previous seven games. With that said, Mason is dirt-cheap across the industry on today’s slate, and he’s been a better fantasy asset on a per-minute basis than Hill this season.
Fast Break
Jordan Clarkson’s price tag has risen rapidly, but it’s been warranted given his production in relief of the injured Lonzo Ball. Over his past three games, Clarkson has averaged 36.67 DraftKings points:
This game between the Lakers and Rockets should be the fastest of the night: Both teams rank in the top eight in pace this season, and the 227-point over/under is the largest total of the night.
Shooting Guard
Stud
While it’s hard to argue against the safety of Westbrook, James Harden could actually have a higher ceiling today with his matchup against the Lakers. He’s torched the Lakers over the past two seasons, averaging a Plus/Minus of +5.75 on FanDuel over five matchups:
Harden’s current $11,000 price tag is significantly cheaper than in some of his previous matchups and results in a Bargain Rating of 98 percent on FanDuel. The Rockets’ implied team total of 121 points is also the top mark on the slate by a wide margin. He should come at a significant ownership discount from Westbrook, which makes him an appealing pivot for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). Of course, he has to actually play for any of this to matter: He’s currently listed as questionable with foot contusion.
Value
The Lakers will not be playing in the state of California for today’s matchup, which means that Kentavious Caldwell-Pope won’t be able to travel with the team. That will likely result in big minutes for Josh Hart, who is priced at just $3,900 on FanDuel. He’s seen a team-high usage increase of 5.8 percent in games without KCP this season and has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.25 against the Rockets.
Fast Break
Devin Booker has dominated the ball for the Suns since returning from injury, posting a Westbrook-like usage rate of 41.5 percent in both games. He hasn’t returned to his pre-injury workload yet, averaging ‘just’ 33 minutes per game, but that hasn’t stopped him from exceeded salary-based expectations in each of those games. His matchup with the 76ers results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.18 on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 98 percent.
Milos Teodosic has SG-eligibility on DraftKings, where he looks like a solid value at just $5,100 against the Phoenix Suns. He played 33 minutes in the Clippers last game, and Austin Rivers is currently questionable for today’s contest with an Achilles injury. Teodosic has averaged 0.92 fantasy points per minute over the past month, so any additional minutes in today’s contest could result in a big performance.
Small Forward
Stud
SF is pretty thin at the top today, especially if George doesn’t end up playing. With that said, Brandon Ingram has had some stud-like performances recently, going for at least 37.5 DraftKings points in three of his past six games. He’ll likely see a few additional minutes today given the absence of KCP: He played over 40 minutes the last time the Lakers were without him. Ingram looks like a really nice value on DraftKings, where his $6,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Value
Corey Brewer could be another intriguing value option for the shorthanded Lakers on today’s slate. He played 25 minutes in the Lakers last game without KCP and turned those minutes into 35.75 DraftKings points. Brewer loves to gamble for steals and try to get out in transition, which is a friendly style of play for fantasy purposes.
Fast Break
TJ Warren has quietly been putting up big numbers for the Suns recently, scoring at least 38.75 DraftKings points in four of his past five games. He has a decent matchup today with the Los Angeles Clippers (+2.71 Opponent Plus/Minus). The Suns’ implied team total of 109 points is the third-highest mark on today’s slate.
Robert Covington was questionable heading into yesterday’s game with the Nuggets, but he ended up playing 35 minutes and scoring 36.5 FanDuel points. His salary has decreased by $1,300 on FanDuel over the past two weeks, which makes him an intriguing buy-low option today against the Phoenix Suns. It should be noted that Joel Embiid is expected to play today, but his presence shouldn’t have a major effect on Covington: He’s averaged just 1.4 fewer fantasy points per 36 minutes this season when sharing the court with Embiid.
Power Forward
Stud
Blake Griffin returned from an extended absence Friday, playing 32 minutes and scoring 41 DraftKings points against the Los Angeles Lakers. He shouldn’t be expected to play much more than that today against the Charlotte Hornets, but Griffin has proven that he can do some damage at his current $7,600 salary in just 32 minutes of playing time. He leads all players on the slate with 13 Pro Trends and has a solid +2.87 Opponent Plus/Minus.
Value
Carmelo Anthony was a massive bust in his last outing, going for just 17.2 FanDuel points despite the absence of George. With that said, Carmelo still figures to be one of the biggest beneficiaries if George were to sit out again today. Overall, he’s seen a usage increase of 5.2 percent and averaged more than 35 FanDuel points per 36 minutes with George off the court this season:
This could be an interesting spot to buy-low on Melo, especially against a Mavericks team that has the third-worst rebound rate in the league this season.
Fast Break
Kyle Kuzma has seen a pretty large salary decrease on FanDuel after back-to-back subpar games, but he should still be one of the Lakers’ primary scoring options. The Lakers have shown a willingness to play him for 40+ minutes, and they might need that kind of workload from him today given all their injuries/legal troubles. He scored more than 55 fantasy points against the Rockets 11 days ago, so we know the kind of upside this guy possesses.
Marquese Chriss lives! After serving as one of the biggest fantasy disappointments to start the season, Chriss has crawled out of the doghouse and managed to play at least 25 minutes in four of his past five games. He showed the ability to average close to a fantasy point per minute as a rookie, although he hasn’t quite hit that threshold yet this season. He’s definitely someone to keep on your radar moving forward.
Center
Stud
Joel Embiid should be good to go for today’s matchup with the Suns. He has been an absolute force of late, going for at least 51.4 FanDuel points in five of his past seven games. We know about what Embiid can do on the offense end – he ranks fourth in the league in usage and has averaged 1.46 fantasy points per minute this season – but this matchup against the Suns could present some additional rebounding opportunities, as well. Phoenix currently ranks third in pace and 25th in offensive efficiency, which is a formula that can lead to a lot of missed shots.
Value
Sticking with the shorthanded Lakers theme, Julius Randle moved into the starting lineup in their last game and responded with 33.25 DraftKings points in 28.5 minutes. It’s almost always foolish to trust Randle, but if he’s going to continue to play that much, he’s a bargain at his current salary. He’s averaged 1.12 fantasy points per minute over the past month, which puts him in the same class as guys like Marc Gasol, DeAndre Jordan, and Dwight Howard.
Fast Break
Speaking of Howard, he’s been especially impressive over his past three games, posting an average Plus/Minus of +15.43 on DraftKings. His salary over that time frame hasn’t budged despite his dominant performances, and now he gets to take on a Clippers team that has been destroyed by opposing centers all season. His Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.90 is one of the top marks regardless of position on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 98 percent.
Clint Capela is another center who’s underpriced on DraftKings in an elite spot, owning a Bargain Rating of 99 percent and Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.03. The only concern with Capela is how many minutes he’ll play given that this will be his first game back from injury.
Good luck!
Photo via Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
News Updates
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