Saturday brings a five-game main slate at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Milwaukee Bucks at Chicago Bulls
Vegas: 202 over/under, Bulls -2.5
Giannis Antetokounmpo has put up lines of 25-7-5 and 23-5-8 in the last two games and missed salary-based expectations on DraftKings. Such is the life of a superstar. Still, he’s been on lately, scoring at least 43 DK points in each of his last 10 games and averaging a +5.99 Plus/Minus during that time. He has a poor Opponent Plus/Minus of -1.15, but that may not be representative of the actual matchup. The Bulls have only one good wing defender in Jimmy Butler and they somehow have to deal with both Giannis and Jabari Parker. Our NBA Matchups tool currently has Jimmy taking Jabari at least to start, which means that Giannis will face either the much smaller Rajon Rondo or Dwayne Wade or the much slower Taj Gibson. Of the 10 players priced at $8,000 or higher on DK, Giannis is the only player with a Bargain Rating above 40 percent (his is at 93).
If Butler does indeed guard Parker, that would certainly be negative for the latter, even if Butler has allowed an above-average shooting mark from the mid-range this season:
Butler currently ranks 16th among SFs in Defensive Real Plus/Minus (+1.08), but Kawhi Leonard ranks 17th, so these numbers might say more about DRPM than about Butler. Jabari is fine for tournaments, but $7,200 is a high price for this projected matchup.
On the other side of the ball, Butler’s night largely depends on who will guard him as well. If Giannis takes the role, Butler could have a tough time: Giannis ranks first among SFs with a +3.87 DRPM, and the Bucks have held opponents to a 101 Offensive Rating with him on the floor. That would be the second-stingiest mark in the league over a full game. Things would be easier for Butler if he gets Parker, and he’s certainly worth rostering in GPPs for that chance. He’s flashed a high ceiling lately — he had 64.2 FD points just three games ago — and he’s certainly reasonable at $8,600 on FD, where he comes with 11 Pro Trends, a 75 percent Bargain Rating, and a +2.12 Opponent Plus/Minus.
The rest of the Bulls are in the GPP category because of their low minute projections, but there are some fine punt plays. Notably, Nikola Mirotic and Michael Carter-Williams are $4,100 and $3,000 DK and projected to play 20-plus minutes off the bench. Mirotic has exceeded salary-based expectations by 4.47 DK points over his last nine games, and MCW had 12 points and eight assists in a season-high 27.4 minutes last game.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Charlotte Hornets
Vegas: 212.5 over/under, Cavs -2.5
Kemba Walker is $100 less than his teammate, Nicolas Batum, and he has a much easier matchup today, assuming he’ll draw Kyrie Irving and DeAndre Liggins will take Batum. Liggins has actually been a stellar defender so far this season, posting a +1.11 DRPM and holding opponents to below-average shooting marks from all over the floor:
Batum really struggled in this matchup the last time they faced on 12/10, scoring only 21.1 FD points in 32.6 minutes. Kemba was a little better, scoring 32.7 FD points in 29.7 minutes and putting up 24 real points. They’re both reasonably priced on FD, where they own Bargain Ratings of 68 and 75 percent and are projected for fairly chalky 21-25 percent ownership. Kemba is preferable in tournaments because of the matchup, but there’s no denying that Batum has been one of the hottest DFS assets lately:
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist has a tough matchup against LeBron James, but it’s hard to deny his +4.7 DK Plus/Minus in games without Marco Belinelli, who is listed as doubtful yet again. MKG profiles more as a cash-game play, although the matchup against LeBron may take him out of that category. Cody Zeller is a similar play and remains much too cheap on DK, where his $4,700 salary comes with a high +5.25 Projected Plus/Minus and seven Pro Trends. He owns a brutal -2.01 Opponent Plus/Minus, but he’s projected for 30-plus minutes. He posted 32.8 DK points in 22.8 minutes last game versus the Cavs.
Kyrie Irving is a game-time decision today, and the low 2.5-point spread in favor of the Cavs perhaps hints that he’s unlikely to suit up. In a recent NBA Daily Fantasy Flex podcast, fellow host Jay Persson gave a useful heuristic when it comes to the Cavs’ ‘Big 3’: If one is out, lock in the other two. Over the last two seasons, LeBron and Kevin Love have averaged +2.7 and +2.4 DK Plus/Minus values and 47.1 and 37.5 fantasy points without Kyrie. LeBron has posted a massive 34.2 percent usage rate in those games, and Love has posted back-to-back games of 30-15 and 17-14 against tough Boston and Detroit defenses. Don’t overthink this.
If Kyrie does end up playing, he’s a fine option on DK, where he owns a 93 percent Bargain Rating and +1.66 Opponent Plus/Minus. LeBron and Love remain solid options in all contest formats, especially on FD.
New York Knicks at Houston Rockets
Vegas: 222 over/under, Rockets -10.5
This is definitely the juiciest game of the night: The Rockets’ implied Vegas total of 116.25 points sits 7.75 points higher than that of any other team.
Let’s start with the Knicks. Derrick Rose faces Patrick Beverley, who has probably been the best PG defender in the league this year, posting an elite +1.30 DRPM. Fade. Carmelo Anthony and Kristaps Porzingis are much more interesting, especially on DK, where their salaries of $7,100 and $7,200 come with high Bargain Ratings of 93 and 86 percent. Carmelo faces a perceived tough matchup against Trevor Ariza, who is much better defensively in reputation than in reality:
Melo is currently the No. 1 overall player in the Phan Model for DK, where he comes with a massive +5.55 Projected Plus/Minus and 15 Pro Trends.
Porzingis gets an even better matchup against Ryan Anderson, who . . . is not a rim protector:
Porzingis just dropped 50 DK points last night against the Pelicans on a 21-12 line with two steals and two blocks, and he has the chance to create havoc yet again in an even better matchup. He’s the No. 1 DK PF in the Phan Model and comes with a +4.55 Projected Plus/Minus and 12 Pro Trends.
I recently did a study about stacking teammates in daily fantasy NBA, and I found that often starting teammates are positively correlated. My theory is that projecting game flow is more important than the potential cannibalization of fantasy points, and the Rockets are a case in point. They’re implied for 7.75 points more than the next highest-implied team, and James Harden, Montrezl Harrell, Eric Gordon, and even Trevor Ariza are solid options on FD. The latter three typically profile more as cash-game options, but they could all be used together based on the data in the stacking study. The Knicks own the 24th-ranked defense in the league, allowing a poor 107.2 points per 100 possessions. Load up on the Rox.
Phoenix Suns at Utah Jazz
Vegas: 205.5 over/under, Jazz -11.5
The Suns own a bottom-10 offense, scoring 102.1 points per 100 possessions, and the Jazz own the third-best defense, allowing only 101.3 points per 100 possessions. This is not a good spot for Phoenix at all. It’s fine to have low exposure to someone like Eric Bledsoe, who has scored 41.5 FD points or more in three of his last four games — he dropped 51.3 against the Raps last game — but don’t go overboard with exposure against this elite defense. Rudy Gobert is currently in line for Defensive Player of the Year and has absolutely shut down opposing offenses:
On the other side of the ball are plays galore. Phoenix plays at the second-fastest pace in the league, averaging 103.5 possessions per game, and it also owns the 25th-ranked defense, allowing a poor 107.6 points per 100 possessions. The Jazz are finally getting healthy and have been excellent this year with their starters, especially new PG George Hill. The guards, Hill and Rodney Hood, are excellent values on FD, where their salaries of $6,600 and $4,300 come with Bargain Ratings of 68 and 93 percent. Hood is especially an elite option: He’s currently the No. 1 overall player in the Phan Model for FD, where he owns a high +5.86 Projected Plus/Minus and a +1.69 Opponent Plus/Minus. He got back up above 30 minutes last game following illnesses in December, and he’s projected for 31.3 minutes tonight.
Gordon Hayward and Gobert are probably a bit overpriced with Hill and Derrick Favors back in the lineup, but they’re certainly worth rostering in GPPs. Gobert has an elite matchup against the 34-year-old Tyson Chandler, who has allowed above-average shooting marks pretty much everywhere in basketball gyms:
Favors is perhaps the most intriguing of the Jazz: He’s working his way back up to a larger minute load — he’s projected for 26.3 today after playing 24.7 and 21.9 in his last two games — and he’s only $4,300 on DK. He has a nice +4.25 Projected Plus/Minus there and is absolutely worth rostering as a contrarian move in GPPs.
Los Angeles Clippers at Oklahoma City Thunder
Vegas: 208 over/under, Thunder -5
Russell Westbrook will face off against Chris Paul, who owns the best DRPM (+2.96) among all PGs this year. Still, that probably doesn’t matter much for this current iteration of Westbrook: He’s exceeded salary-based expectations by an average of 0.17 DK points over his last nine games despite being above $12,000 in salary and missing expectations by 31.9 points last game due to an ejection. He’s currently the No. 2 option in the Phan Model for FD, where his $12,000 salary comes with a slate-high +8.36 Projected Plus/Minus, 13 Pro Trends, and a 95 percent Bargain Rating.
The Mustache Bros of Steven Adams and Enes Kanter have been excellent for the Thunder lately, posting FD Plus/Minus values of +4.98 and +4.17 over the last nine games. Adams has hit value in all of those outings and is somehow only $100 more expensive than he was at the beginning of that hot stretch. They’re both $5,400 today on FD and own high Projected Plus/Minus values of +7.23 and +4.93.
According to our NBA News feed, CP3 was ruled out Friday after experiencing “fatigue,” and coach Doc Rivers said that he would have played if it had been a playoff game. Still, Paul’s health has to be a concern in a tough matchup with Westbrook, who isn’t a great one-on-one defender but demands so much of the opposing PG because of his offensive prowess. Paul has played once since 12/22 and posted 42.5 DK points against the Pelicans, but it’s hard to get excited about his high $9,400 price tag with guys like Westbrook, Harden, and LeBron in the slate. He owns a low projected ownership of 13-16 percent for good reason.
DeAndre Jordan has been playing well lately, scoring 40.75 and 49.25 DK points in his last two games on lines of 20-13 and 13-25. That said, the Thunder own a top-10 defense, allowing 103.7 points per 100 possessions, and that’s been almost entirely due to the elite play and rim protection of Adams:
The Clippers are currently five-point dogs implied to score only 101.5 points — the third-lowest mark in the slate. They’re all in GPP-only territory.
Good luck!
News Updates
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