The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a six-game slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Stephen Curry has struggled recently, failing to exceed salary-based expectations in five straight games. He’s been plagued by some tough matchups — at Utah, at Sacramento, at Denver – and has also seen reduced run in a couple of blowouts. On the surface, today’s matchup against the Spurs doesn’t seem like a great spot for him to get right. They’re playing at the second-slowest pace in the league this season and also rank second in defensive efficiency.
Still, the Spurs haven’t been as good defensively without Kawhi Leonard on the court this season, allowing 106 points per 100 possessions. That’s approximately five points worse than their overall mark and would rank just 17th in the league. As a result, the Warriors’ implied team total of 114.5 points is still the top mark on the slate and only represents a slight decrease when compared to their seasonal average (115.5). Curry has also had a ton of success in this matchup over the past two seasons, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.72 and a Consistency Rating of 71.4 percent on DraftKings.
This is a much better matchup than it appears on paper.
Value
The PG position is absolutely loaded with value plays on today’s slate.
The Spurs will be without both Tony Parker and Dejounte Murray for today’s contest with the Warriors, which will likely result in Patty Mills handling the majority of the PG minutes. Mills has averaged 0.78 fantasy points per minute with both players and Leonard off the floor this season, and he’s currently projected for 28.5 minutes in our NBA Models. That kind of production would make him a solid value at $3,800 on DraftKings and $4,300 on FanDuel.
Jerian Grant has played at least 36 minutes in each of his last three games, but he remains really affordable on DraftKings at just $5,000 with a Bargain Rating of 95 percent, and he has a solid Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.81 against the Washington Wizards. The Bulls will also be without Zach LaVine (rest) in today’s contest, and he’s been easily their highest usage player since returning from injury last month. Kris Dunn also remains out for Chicago, and Grant has averaged 0.83 fantasy points per minute with both players off the floor this season.
Finally, DJ Augustin features a massive pricing discrepancy between the two sites today, and his $4,700 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 99 percent. He played 35 minutes in his last game and figures to continue playing big minutes after the Magic shipped Elfrid Payton to the Phoenix Suns. He’s averaged an impressive 0.97 fantasy points per minute over the past month and offers substantial upside even in a tough matchup with the Milwaukee Bucks.
Fast Break
Isaiah Thomas was officially a disaster for the Cavaliers, but he’ll have a chance to rebuild his stock with the Los Angeles Lakers. He could potentially increase upon his 29 percent usage rate with the Cavs and could get closer to his 34 percent mark in his last year with Boston. If he can return to his pre-injury form with the Lakers – which is obviously a huge “if” – he has substantial upside at just $5,600 on DraftKings.
I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention Jamal Murray. He has an awesome matchup against the Phoenix Suns, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.71. He was a major disappointment in his most recent game, which makes this an excellent opportunity to buy low on him.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Bradley Beal continues to crush without John Wall, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.30 on FanDuel over his past 10 games.
He has a solid matchup today with the Bulls, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.45. The one caveat with Beal today is his salary. It’s been increased to a season-high $9,300 on FanDuel, so he’s going to need to do more than usual to return value on today’s slate.
Value
Justin Holiday is another member of the Bulls who could see a nice boost in value today without LaVine. He’s seen a usage increase of 2.2 percent with LaVine and Dunn off the court this season, resulting in an average of 0.79 fantasy points per minute.
He’s played at least 35.5 minutes in each of his past three games, and he could see a couple of additional minutes today. His $4,800 salary on DraftKings is accompanied by a Bargain Rating of 98 percent.
Fast Break
Danny Green has seen a solid bump in playing time recently, playing at least 28 minutes in each of the Spurs’ last two competitive games. He’s also seen a bump in his per-minute productivity, averaging 0.91 fantasy points per minute over the past month. The Spurs are in the top pace-up spot of the day against the Warriors, so Green could be in a nice spot as long as San Antonio avoids a blowout.
Lou Williams looks like a major value on FanDuel at just $6,800. He’s averaged 1.15 fantasy points per minute over the past month and has dominated the basketball for the Clippers with Blake Griffin off the court this season.
Small Forward
Studs
Today’s slate features a pair of studs at SF in Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant. Both options are better values on DraftKings, where each has a Bargain Rating of at least 93 percent.
Let’s start with Giannis. He’s failed to exceed value in four of his past five games, but his average of 1.46 fantasy points per minute over the past month does represent a slight increase when compared to his season long average. Today’s matchup with the Magic seems like an excellent spot for him to bounce back. The Magic rank just 27th in defensive efficiency this season, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.29 for Giannis. The Magic are also playing at the seventh-fastest pace, resulting in a pace differential (paceD) of +3.2. Giannis has historically been a nice value with a comparable paceD and salary on DraftKings ($10,800).
Given his matchup, he’s likely the safer of the two stud SFs today.
Durant has an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +1.24 against the Spurs, but that likely oversells the difficulty of this matchup. He’s also priced very fairly at just $9,600 on DraftKings, where he leads all SFs with 10 Pro Trends. Durant has historically been a solid value with a comparable salary and number of Pro Trends as a member of the Warriors.
He will likely come at an ownership discount when compared to Giannis, which makes him intriguing for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Value
Devin Booker did not practice on Friday and seems unlikely to play today for the Phoenix Suns. That will likely lead to TJ Warren carrying the offensive load once again against the Denver Nuggets. Warren has led the team with a usage rate of 28.8 percent with Booker off the court this season, resulting in an average of 0.97 fantasy points per minute on DraftKings.
Josh Jackson also has some appeal for the Suns. He’s averaged 0.98 fantasy points per minute over the past month and has played at least 33 minutes in back-to-back games. The one caveat for the Suns players is the addition of Elfrid Payton. He should make his debut today and could potentially cut into both of their workloads.
Fast Break
Another position, another potential Bulls’ value option. Denzel Valentine has been a solid per-minute producer over the past month, averaging 0.89 fantasy points per minute, and there’s a chance he could approach 30 minutes in today’s contest. He’s a slightly better value today at $4,900 on FanDuel.
Will Barton has one of the best matchups at the position, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.02 on DraftKings. He’s been playing more minutes since moving into the starting lineup, seeing at least 34 minutes in eight straight games prior to yesterday’s blowout loss to the Rockets. He’s appealing on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
Power Forward
Stud
LaMarcus Aldridge is in an interesting spot today against the Warriors. On one hand, he figures to be a usage machine with Leonard, Murray, Parker, and Gay all out for the Spurs. So far this season, he’s led the team with a usage rate of 30.8 percent and averaged 1.15 fantasy points per minute with all four players off the court.
He also leads all PFs with 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel and has a solid Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.67.
On the other hand, Matt Moore points out in our Spurs/Warriors betting guide that Aldridge has really struggled with the Warriors over the past two seasons. He shot just 41 percent against them in the playoffs last season and has shot only 36 percent against them this season, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of -0.65 in eight matchups:
Ultimately, his fantasy value likely hinges on whether or not the Spurs can cover the 11-point spread.
Value
One thing that increases Aldridge’s appeal on today’s slate is the lack of viable value plays. No one in the low end of the salary range really stands out, but two options that could make some sense are Dragan Bender and Marquese Chriss for the Phoenix Suns. Bender is the stronger bet to play more minutes – he’s played at least 31.5 in back-to-back games – but he’s averaged a paltry 0.57 fantasy points per minute over the past month. Still, at just $3,800 on FanDuel he has a clear path to value. Chriss has been much better on a per-minute basis, averaging 0.95 fantasy points per minute over the past month, but his playing time has been much more volatile and he’s significantly more expensive at $5,000 on FanDuel, but he’s clearly the preferred option of the two on DraftKings, where both options cost $4,400.
Fast Break
Joel Embiid was able to play through an ankle injury on Friday but is currently questionable today on the second leg of a back-to-back. If he were to miss, Dario Saric stands to be the biggest beneficiary. So far this season he’s averaged roughly 37 DraftKings points per game with Embiid out of the lineup, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +11.1.
He has been priced up quite a bit over the past month, but he would still be one of the safest options at a weak position on today’s slate.
Trey Lyles is another guy whose playing time has been all over the place recently, playing as many as 27 minutes or as few as 14.5 over his past four games. If he does play toward the high end of his minute range today, he could be a nice value against the Phoenix Suns. The matchup results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.76, and Lyles has averaged 1.08 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He’s a much stronger value today on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 95 percent.
Center
Stud
Nikola Jokic has been a nice value of late, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.56 over his past 10 games. Despite the solid production, his salary has actually decreased by $600 on DraftKings over that time frame, and his current price tag of $9,300 comes with a Bargain Rating of 90 percent. He has a strong matchup today against the Phoenix Suns, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.92. The Nuggets’ implied team total of 113 points trails only the Warriors’ on today’s slate and represents a massive increase when compared to their seasonal average (106.9).
Value
Bismack Biyombo has lost some playing time recently but still figures to play around 28 minutes today against the Milwaukee Bucks. It’s one of the best matchups possible for centers, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.25 on FanDuel. The Bucks have been the second-worst rebounding team in the league this season, and Biyombo currently ranks in the top 20 in rebounding percentage.
Fast Break
Julius Randle did not see a huge bump in playing time in his first game without Larry Nance Jr., but that game was a blowout loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder. It’s possible he could play more today if the Lakers can keep the game close, which definitely seems feasible against the Dallas Mavericks. The Mavs are also a strong matchup for centers thanks in part to the worst rebound rate in the league. Randle has been one of the best per-minute producers at the position recently, averaging 1.15 fantasy points per minute on FanDuel.
DeAndre Jordan could be in a really nice spot today against the 76ers if Embiid is inactive. They’ve allowed 115 points per 100 possessions with Embiid off the court this season, which is a far cry from their overall mark of 103.0. They were also the worst team in the league against centers last season, allowing an average Plus/Minus of +5.72 on DraftKings. Like most centers, Jordan is a better value on DraftKings, where his $6,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
