The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a seven-game main slate starting at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
PG is thin at the top today, with only three players owning salaries of at least $7,000 on FanDuel. All three – Dennis Schroder, Lonzo Ball, and Spencer Dinwiddie – have negative Plus/Minus projections on FanDuel, and only Schroder has a Bargain Rating of more than nine percent. So it makes sense to pay down at the position.
The top PGs are much more appealing on DraftKings, especially Dinwiddie, who has averaged a stout 1.14 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He’s seen a major bump in value since the injury to D’Angelo Russell, averaging just under 33 DraftKings points per game in 13 games without Russell this season:
He has a mediocre matchup against the Washington Wizards, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +1.71, but his current $6,100 salary on DraftKings is just too cheap given his recent workload and production.
Value
The PG situation in Phoenix is very fluid at the moment, with Tyler Ulis and Mike James seemingly alternating games as the PG of choice for the Suns. James got the nod in the Suns’ most recent game and is probably the better option of the two for DFS purposes: He has averaged a usage rate of 36 percent and 41.59 DraftKings points per 36 minutes with Devin Booker off the court this season:
There’s always a chance James could return to more of a bench role in today’s contest against the Kings – he failed to eclipse 16 minutes in any of his three games prior to playing the Spurs – but he offers a lot of upside at his current salary across the industry.
Fast Break
No team on today’s slate has a better matchup at the PG position than the Kings, with Phoenix allowing the second-highest Plus/Minus to the position on DraftKings this season:
Frank Mason III has been a solid source of value recently, averaging a Plus/Minus of +5.09 over his past 10 games. He remains affordable at just $3,900 on DraftKings.
The Timberwolves have played a tough schedule recently, with matchups against the slow-paced Mavericks and Grizzlies in two of their past three contests. Jeff Teague really suffered in those games, posting an average Plus/Minus of -14.77 on FanDuel, but he’ll have no such concerns today against the 76ers. Philly is playing at the fourth-fastest pace in the league this season, resulting in a pace differential (paceD) of +3.8 for T’Wolves players. Teague has historically smashed in comparable pace up situations:
Shooting Guard
Studs
Jimmy Butler continues to be massively underpriced on DraftKings, owning a Bargain Rating of 98 percent for today’s matchup with the 76ers. It’s not like he’s been playing poorly either, averaging a Plus/Minus of +7.26 over his past 10 games:
No one on today’s slate is projected to play more than Butler’s 41 minutes, and the fast-paced matchup with the 76ers results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.09. If Joel Embiid were to sit, the matchup would become even juicier: They 76ers were the worst defensive team in the league last season without their star center in the lineup.
Bradley Beal has an outstanding matchup against the Brooklyn Nets, who rank third in pace and 20th in defensive efficiency this season. Beal hasn’t exactly dominated in John Wall’s absence like most thought he would, but he has seen a sizable increase in usage rate in the 10 games without him this season:
Overall, those extra possessions should eventually result in increased production, and today’s game against the Nets could definitely be a spot where he blows up.
Value
Gary Harris has a Bargain Rating of 98 percent today on FanDuel and remains one of the safest options at the position, owning a Consistency Rating of 91 percent over the past month. He routinely plays a minimum of 36 minutes, and he leads the position with 9 Pro Trends on FanDuel.
Fast Break
While Harris has been a strong option recently, his production has been dwarfed by that of teammate Will Barton. Barton has long been a big producer on a per-minute basis, but minutes have always been the big question. That said, he’s seen at least 41 minutes in three of his past four games and has posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.27 on DraftKings over his past 10. He’s priced at a season-high on both FanDuel and DraftKings, but offers as much upside at the position as anyone, given the amount of playing time he’s received recently.
Sticking with the teammate theme, Andrew Wiggins has been priced down to $5,900 on FanDuel after an absolutely dreadful four-game stretch. However, he’s shot a paltry 33 percent from the field over that time frame, which makes him a prime candidate for some positive regression moving forward. He has some appeal as a buy-low option for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) at what will likely be minimal ownership.
Small Forward
Stud
LeBron James stands in his own tier on today’s slate, with his $12,600 salary on FanDuel making him $1,800 more than the second-most expensive player on the slate (Embiid). It’s hard to argue against the price tag: LeBron has gone for at least 52.4 FanDuel points in eight of his past night games. That kind of production makes him invaluable in cash games, where he’s posted a ridiculous Consistency Rating of 91 percent over the past year.
There’s also a chance that Kevin Love could miss today’s contest, which would likely result in a massive workload for LeBron. So far this season, he’s averaged a usage rate of 33.5 percent with Love off the court:
He has a solid Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.11 today against the Atlanta Hawks, and while there’s currently no spread on today’s game, the Cavs are a solid bet to own the highest implied team total on the slate.
Value
The Nuggets appear to be playing a super tight rotation at the moment, with only nine players seeing action in their most recent game against the Pacers. One of those players was Wilson Chandler, who played 37 minutes and scored 33.10 FanDuel points. He has a solid Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.03, and his minutes should be secure, given all the injuries in the Nuggets frontcourt.
Fast Break
Allen Crabbe has played 32 minutes in back-to-back games and has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.89 against the Washington Wizards. His salary has fallen all the way to $4,500 on FanDuel and $4,400 on DraftKings, making him an appealing value option on both sites.
Wesley Matthews has SF eligibility on DraftKings in addition to SG eligibility across the DFS industry and has been possibly the biggest benefactor of the Dennis Smith Jr. injury in Dallas. He’s seen 37 minutes in back-to-back games, scoring at least 28 DraftKings points in both.
Power Forward
Studs
Ben Simmons has been a bit of a disappointment recently, positing a positive Plus/Minus in just two of his last six games. That’s resulted in him being priced down to $10,000 on FanDuel, where he leads the position with 10 Pro Trends. He also leads the position in projected minutes (36.6), fantasy points per minute over the past month (1.24), and blocks + steals per game (2.92).
Kristaps Porzingis features one of the largest pricing discrepancies of the day, owning a Bargain Rating of 99 percent on DraftKings. He has an elite matchup against the Los Angeles Lakers (Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.28), and the Knicks’ implied team total of 108.25 is 4.25 points greater than their season average. His usage rate of 33.8 percent ranks fourth this season, and it could see a boost tonight with Tim Hardaway Jr. sidelined: He’s posted a usage rate of 35.8 percent with THJ off the court:
Value
With Trevor Booker now in Philadelphia, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson should assume the majority of the PF minutes for the Brooklyn Nets. He’s played 35 in both games since the trade, scoring at least 30.5 DraftKings points in both. He’s been priced way up on FanDuel but remains affordable at $5,900 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99 percent. Jahlil Okafor is expected to make his debut tonight, which could effect Hollis-Jefferson’s minutes a bit, but his playing time is more likely to come at the expense of Tyler Zeller and Jarrett Allen.
Fast Break
Taj Gibson had a poor showing in his last outing against the Dallas Mavericks, but that seems like an outlier given his recent production. Over the past month, he’s posted a Consistency Rating of 86 percent and Upside Rating of 60 percent on FanDuel, where his current $5,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98 percent. He has a good matchup against the 76ers, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.54.
Julius Randle has been a solid contributor this season, averaging 1.09 fantasy points per minute on FanDuel, but his minutes have been up-and-down. He does appear to be in the good graces of the coaching staff at the moment, playing 26 and 30 minutes in his last two contests, and he’s likely underpriced across the industry if he’s going to continue playing that much. He’s a risky option for cash games, but offers plenty of upside for GPPs.
Center
Studs
Joel Embiid is the top priced center on both sites, but it’s going to be tough to trust him even if he’s active. Saying he’s struggled with injuries throughout his career is a massive understatement, and the 76ers could potentially look to limit his minutes as he returns from a back injury. With that said, Embiid has a fantastic matchup against Karl-Anthony Towns, who has been one of the worst defensive centers in the league this season per Defensive Real Plus/Minus (DRPM). This is a situation you’ll likely want to keep your eye on throughout the day.
Towns could make some sense in his own right, especially on DraftKings where he has a Bargain Rating of 98 percent. He’s coming off one of his best games of the season, posting a usage rate of 31.1 percent while scoring 54 fantasy points against the Dallas Mavericks. Hopefully that’s a sign of things to come from Towns, who is way too gifted offensively to be priced at $8,700 on DraftKings.
Andre Drummond is probably your best bet if paying up on FanDuel, where his $9,200 salary makes him one of the few centers with a better Bargain Rating there than on DraftKings. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +0.61 against the Denver Nuggets, but they’ve been drastically worse against centers since the injury to Nikola Jokic. Only the Atlanta Hawks have allowed more fantasy points to opposing centers over their past five games, and their struggles on the glass in particular play right into Drummond’s biggest strength.
Value
Ian Mahinmi is questionable for today’s contest with a knee injury, and his absence would likely result in a huge workload for Marcin Gortat. Gortat’s price has plummeted as Mahinmi has earned more playing time, and his current $4,700 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 95 percent. He has a very exploitable matchup today against the Brooklyn Nets, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.56.
Fast Break
Enes Kanter has seen his production fall off a cliff recently, but he’s in a strong bounce-back spot against the Los Angeles Lakers. His Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.54 is one of the top marks at the position, and his Ceiling Projection trails only the big three centers and Love on today’s slate.
Good luck!
News Updates
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