The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a 10-game slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Even though today’s slate is very large, it lacks virtually all of the superstars that have defined this season. At the PG position, that means no Russell Westbrook, no Steph Curry, and no Chris Paul. There’s also no James Harden at SG, no LeBron James or Kevin Durant at SF, and no Anthony Davis or DeMarcus Cousins at PF and C. That’s going to make lineup construction very interesting.
One player who could be intriguing at the top of the position is Kris Dunn. He’s played well of late, posting a Consistency Rating of 86 percent on DraftKings over the past month, and has an excellent matchup with the Dallas Mavericks. So far this season, only the Orlando Magic have allowed a higher average Plus/Minus to the PG position:
He’s a stronger value today on DraftKings, where his $7,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95 percent.
Value
Ish Smith is another PG with an awesome matchup today, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.33 against the Philadelphia 76ers. Philly has played at the second fastest pace this season, resulting in a pace differential (paceD) of +3.8 for the Detroit players. Smith has historically thrived in games with a comparable paceD when projected for at least 28 minutes of playing time:
He looks like one of the safer options at the position.
Fast Break
Goran Dragic seems to be officially off of his minute limit, which makes him really intriguing today at $6,600 on DraftKings and $6,800 on FanDuel. He’s played at least 37 minutes in each of his last two games and has turned those minutes into an average of 49.6 DraftKings points.
Damian Lillard returned from an extended absence in Portland’s last game, playing 33 minutes against the Cleveland Cavaliers. He likely could’ve played more if the game stayed close, which is encouraging for his prospects in an elite matchup today against the Atlanta Hawks. The Blazers’ implied team total of 107 points is 4.5 points higher than their season average and Lillard has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.20 on DraftKings.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Andrew Harrison is unlikely to play today for the Memphis Grizzlies, which could potentially result in an even larger role than normal for Tyreke Evans. Evans has seen a 1.8 percent bump to his usage rate and assist rate with Harrison and Mike Conley both off the court this season, resulting in an average of 42.01 DraftKings points per 36 minutes:
Evans has also been excellent recently, exceeding salary-based expectations in six of his last seven games.
Value
Courtney Lee will very rarely put up a jaw-dropping performance, but he’s been an incredibly steady fantasy producer for most of the season. He’s priced very fairly at just $5,000 on DraftKings, especially considering what he’s done with a comparable price tag this season:
He has a decent matchup with the Miami Heat, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.88.
Fast Break
Jimmy Butler is officially the Rodney Dangerfield of DraftKings: No matter what he does, he gets no respect. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.03 over his last 10 games, yet his salary has actually decreased by $400 over that timeframe. He does have a difficult matchup today with the Boston Celtics, but he may be too good to pass up at just $8,400.
Khris Middleton currently ranks third in the league in minutes per game, but his projection of 38.4 minutes against the Toronto Raptors is the top mark on today’s slate. His sheer volume of minutes makes him one of the safer options for cash games: He’s posted a Consistency Rating of 92 percent on both DraftKings and FanDuel over the past month.
Small Forward
Stud
SF features the lone “super stud” on today’s slate in Giannis Antetokounmpo. That said, he hasn’t exactly played like a stud recently, averaging a Plus/Minus of -1.53 on FanDuel. He also has one of the tougher matchups of the day against the Toronto Raptors, who currently rank fifth in the league in defensive efficiency. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.10 for Giannis on FanDuel. On a normal slate, Giannis would probably be considered a tournament play at best.
However, this isn’t a normal slate, and there are a few positives to consider with Giannis as well. For starters, his salary his decreased by $1,300 on FanDuel over the past month, resulting in a price tag of $11,000 on today’s slate. Giannis has crushed this season with a comparable price tag:
It’s a limited sample size, but that only goes to show how rare it is to see Giannis priced in this vicinity.
The total on this game has also increased by 2.5 points since opening. Milwaukee’s resulting implied team total is roughly 2.5 points higher than their season average. Finally, he leads all players on FanDuel with 13 Pro Trends. The decision to play or fade Giannis will likely be one of the most important ones on today’s slate.
Value
TJ Warren is currently questionable for today’s contest with an illness, but if he’s active he looks like a major value on DraftKings at just $6,100. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.96 over his last 10 games and has scored at least 32.75 fantasy points in eight of them. He does have a brutal matchup today with the Spurs, so you’ll want to make sure he’s active with no restrictions before loading him into your lineup.
Fast Break
Speaking of the Spurs, they lead today’s slate with an implied team total of 111.25 points. That obviously makes them a really appealing team to target, however that’s easier said than done given their deep rotation. Kawhi Leonard is their clear top dog, leading the team with a 31.2 percent usage rate this season. He did see a season-high 30.5 minutes in the Spurs’ last game, but that has resulted in a pretty steep salary increase across the industry. He’ll likely need to play more than that today to return value. Another option could be Kyle Anderson, who has posted a positive Plus/Minus in three of his last four games on FanDuel. He’ll likely see 30 minutes or less today with the Spurs rotation back at full strength, but that should still give him a solid shot at returning value.
Brandon Ingram could be an appealing buy-low candidate on today’s slate. His price has plummeted by close to $1,000 over the past week on FanDuel, thanks mostly to playing reduced minutes in a string of blowouts. If today’s game with the Hornets stays competitive, he should get back to his typical 36-38 minutes.
Power Forward
Stud
PF is typically one of the thinnest positions at the top, especially on slates without Davis. Kristaps Porzingis is likely your best bet if paying up at the position today, although he’s turned in two straight uninspiring performances. Still, his $7,800 price tag on DraftKings is very appealing given his combination of offensive and defensive upside and results in a Bargain Rating of 99 percent. He’s also a prime candidate for some positive regression after shooting sub-40 percent over his last 10 games.
Value
Derrick Favors continues to get the job done in place of Rudy Gobert. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +3.80 over his last six games and has averaged over 31 FanDuel points per game in with Gobert out of the lineup this season:
Fast Break
Brook Lopez made his return for the Lakers in their last game and it will be interesting to see how that affects the minutes for Kyle Kuzma moving forward. Kuzma has been so good as a rookie, but he only played 28 minutes in their most recent game against the Thunder. That said, the reduced minutes were much more likely due to the fact that the game was a blowout than the return of Lopez, which makes him a strong bounce-back candidate today against the Charlotte Hornets. He has a strong Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.11 on FanDuel.
Ersan Ilyasova has been ridiculously good recently, posting a Plus/Minus of at least +7.44 in five of his last six games. He remains affordable on DraftKings, where his $5,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Center
Stud
It’s going to be worth monitoring the news at the center position for the Pistons on today’s slate. Andre Drummond missed their last game and is currently questionable today. If he’s active, he should be in a solid spot against the 76ers. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.12 and has scored at least 44.5 FanDuel points in four straight games. If he can’t go, everyone will get to roster their favorite caveman in Boban Marjanovic. He is a fantasy machine, averaging 1.24 fantasy points per minute this season, and played 22 minutes in the last game without Drummond.
Value
It’s never easy to roster a player with a low minute projection, but Mason Plumlee has been as consistent as possible in that role lately. Despite rarely seeing more than 25 minutes, he’s exceeded salary-based expectations in 10 of his last 12 games:
He remains really affordable at just $4,400 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 97 percent.
Fast Break
Enes Kanter has been priced down to $4,900 on FanDuel, which is kind of crazy considering that he had two straight games with at least 56 fantasy points just two weeks ago. There’s always tons of risk involved with Kanter, but he has the potential to pay off his current salary in a big way.
The center position is easily one of the most talent rich on today’s slate. Both Joel Embiid and Karl-Anthony Towns make for strong tournament plays, although neither really has an ideal matchup.
Good luck!
Photo via Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed:
