The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features an eight-game slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook and Chris Paul will square off against each other on tonight’s slate, and both players certainly have fantasy appeal. Westbrook has exceeded value in three straight games, and he leads all players on DraftKings with 14 Pro Trends. He’s also priced very fairly at the moment at $11,200 and has been an excellent value at a comparable salary since the beginning of last season:
That said, his matchup with Paul is a difficult one. CP3 still grades out as one of the best defensive PGs in the league, per Defensive Real Plus-Minus (DRPM), and Westbrook has an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +1.55 on DraftKings.
Paul has not been nearly as effective as Westbrook recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of -3.17 on FanDuel over his past 10 games, but he could be an intriguing buy-low candidate. His salary has decreased by $1,200 over the past month, which is the top mark at the position on today’s slate. Paul has also historically enjoyed playing against Westbrook:
Value
Milos Teodosic has exceeded value in four straight games on FanDuel and has one of the best matchups of the day against the New Orleans Pelicans. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.06 on FanDuel, and that may undersell this matchup a bit. The Pels have played at a blistering pace recently, averaging 104.8 possessions per game over their past seven games, and the Clippers’ implied team total of 119.25 represents an increase of more than 10 points compared to their season average (109.1). Teodosic is a better value today on FanDuel, where his $4,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Fast Break
Kemba Walker has seen a massive $1,400 salary decrease over the past 10 games on DraftKings, and his current $7,600 mark comes with a Bargain Rating of 86 percent. He has one of the better matchups of the day at the position as well against the Philadelphia 76ers, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.92.
Rajon Rondo has been a really nice source of value on FanDuel over his past 10 games:
He’s seen a noticeable increase in playing time of late, getting at least 32 minutes in each of his past four games. Rondo has averaged 1.10 fantasy points per minute over the past month on FanDuel, which means he’s likely underpriced at $6,500 given his current role.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden has a wonderful matchup today against the Thunder, who have been abysmal defensively since losing Andre Roberson. They’ve allowed 112.1 points per 100 possessions over that time frame, which would be the worst full-season mark in the league. Harden has seen his price come down a bit recently on FanDuel, and his current $11,400 salary gives him a Bargain Rating of 81 percent. He should be one of the most popular options today in all formats.
Value
Caris LeVert exploded for 47.5 FanDuel points in 29.5 minutes on Sunday. The playing time was especially encouraging since he had played less than 20 minutes in each of his two previous games. If he’s going to continue to play that much moving forward, he seems underpriced at $4,600 on FanDuel given his average of 1.11 fantasy points per minute over the past month.
Fast Break
Lou Williams benefits from the same elite matchup as Teodosic, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.54 on DraftKings. He’s been excellent recently, posting a Consistency Rating of 90 percent over the past month while averaging 1.16 fantasy points per minute.
Nicolas Batum has somewhat quietly put together an excellent stretch of basketball recently. He’s exceeded value in eight straight games on DraftKings, thanks in part to an average of 1.02 fantasy points per minute. He has a nice matchup today against the 76ers, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.23, and his $6,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
Small Forward
Studs
Kevin Durant hasn’t exactly played like a stud recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of -2.80 on FanDuel over his past 10 games. That said, he’s in a potential smash spot today against the Brooklyn Nets. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.61 on FanDuel, which is one of the top marks at the SF position. Further, the Warriors are implied for a slate-high 122.25 points, which is high even by their lofty standards. Durant has historically been a solid value with a comparable implied team total:
The one big concern here is the spread, with the Warriors currently serving as 14.5-point favorites. Durant has historically posted a Consistency Rating of just 46.8 percent when comparably favored, which probably makes him best suited for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Paul George might be the preferred stud option for cash games. He leads all players at the position with 13 Pro Trends on FanDuel and has posted a Consistency Rating of 90 percent over the past month. He has a solid matchup against the Rockets as well, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.27.
Value
The Rockets will be a little bit shorthanded today, with both Joe Johnson (illness) and Ryan Anderson (hip) both already ruled out. That should result in a larger role for P.J. Tucker, who is currently priced at just $3,700 on FanDuel and $3,500 on DraftKings. He’s projected for 29.6 minutes in our NBA Models, and Tucker has historically provided nice value with a comparable minutes projection:
Fast Break
Otto Porter continues to get the job done for fantasy players. He’s exceeded value in five straight games on FanDuel, posting an average Plus/Minus of +7.33 over that time frame. He’s averaged 1.11 fantasy points per minute over the past month, and no one on the team has seen a bigger spike in usage with John Wall off the court this season. His price tag remains fair despite his recent production; he’s $7,600 on FanDuel and $7,200 on DraftKings.
OG Anunoby has been ruled out for today’s game, which could result in a slightly larger role for C.J. Miles. Miles has been solid on a per-minute basis recently, averaging 0.86 fantasy points per minute over the past month, and he’s currently priced at the dead minimum on FanDuel.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis has been so good recently that his 57.1 FanDuel points in his most recent game almost felt like a disappointment. His only real misstep over his past eight games came against the San Antonio Spurs, who are one of the best defensive teams in the league and have historically found a way to contain Davis. He should have no such problems today against the Los Angeles Clippers, who have been one of the worst teams in the league this season against opposing big men. The matchup results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.86 on DraftKings, and the Pelicans’ implied team total of 116.75 ranks third on the slate. Brow is extremely appealing today on DraftKings, where his $11,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97 percent.
Value
Frank Kaminsky has averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.02 over his past 10 games on FanDuel and could be in line for an expanded workload today. Marvin Williams is currently questionable after missing shootaround with a migraine, and any additional playing time could result in a big day for Kaminsky in this matchup against the 76ers. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.04 on FanDuel and has averaged 0.98 fantasy points per minute over the past month.
Fast Break
Paul Millsap has been excellent since returning from injury for the Denver Nuggets, averaging 1.19 fantasy points per minute and exceeding value in all three games. He could see another bump in playing time today since the Nuggets have been off since Saturday, and he has a nice matchup against a Mavericks team that ranks dead last in rebounding this season.
Emeka Okafor is questionable for today’s contest, and his absence would likely result in another start for Nikola Mirotic. Niko played 30 minutes in the Pelicans’ most recent game and finished with 35.0 FanDuel points. He should benefit from the same matchup as Davis, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.41.
Center
Stud
Clint Capela has been priced down to $6,800 on DraftKings, which represents a decrease of $700 over his past 10 games. That said, he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +3.41 over that time frame, so it’s not like the decrease is due to a lack of production. He’s also seen a nice bump in playing time recently, playing at least 32 minutes in four of his past five games. He doesn’t have a great matchup today against the Oklahoma City Thunder, but he’s just too cheap at the moment.
Value
Jusuf Nurkic likely won’t play more than 30 minutes today against the New York Knicks, but he has the potential to do a lot of damage in a small amount of playing time. The Knicks have been a disaster defensively since losing Kristaps Porzingis, and they’ve posted a Defensive Rating of 118.2 over their past nine games. Nurkic could have a field day on the interior against Enes Kanter, who ranks 75th out of 79 centers in DRPM.
Fast Break
DeAndre Jordan has been on a rebounding tear of late, pulling down at least 15 boards in three straight games. He’s in a nice spot to improve upon those numbers today against the Pelicans, who have grabbed just 47.9 percent of available rebounds with DeMarcus Cousins off the floor this season. That would be the second-worst full-season mark in the league, trailing only the Dallas Mavericks’ terrible mark. Jordan unsurprisingly has a strong Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.94 on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 81 percent.
Good luck!
News Updates
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Photo credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports
