The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a four-game main slate starting at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
James Harden is expected to sit out today’s contest versus the Dallas Mavericks, which puts Chris Paul squarely on the DFS radar. So far this season, no one on the Rockets has seen a bigger boost in both usage and production with Harden off the court than Paul:
Paul is also extremely affordable at the moment after seeing a salary decrease of $1,400 on FanDuel and $1,300 on DraftKings over the past month.
Value
Darren Collison scored 29.9 FanDuel points in just 20.5 minutes in his first game back from injury on Friday. He will likely see a bump in playing time today – he’s currently projected for 27.2 minutes in our NBA Models – and he’s averaged 0.92 fantasy points per minute over the course of the season. He does have a tough matchup against the Boston Celtics, who rank first in the league in defensive efficiency, but Collison is still underpriced at just $5,200 on FanDuel and $5,100 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Lonzo Ball has shot it significantly better since returning from injury, shooting 45.7 percent from the field and 44.0 percent from 3-point range over his past seven games. He was already an elite contributor with his peripheral statistics – he’s averaged seven rebounds and seven assists per game this season – and his boost as a scorer has resulted in an average Plus/Minus of +5.05 over his past seven games on FanDuel. He has an awesome matchup today against the Cavs, whose defense has failed to improve despite their new additions at the trade deadline. The Lakers’ implied team total of 113.5 is the second-highest mark on the slate, and Lonzo has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.40.
Dennis Smith Jr. is currently questionable for today’s game against the Rockets, but head coach Rick Carlisle is “hopeful” that he can suit up. If he does, he’ll find himself in one of the top pace-up spots on the slate. DSJ has exceeded salary-based expectations in five straight games on FanDuel, where his 12 Pro Trends are tied with Paul’s for the most at the position.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Victor Oladipo has not exactly played like a stud recently, posting a negative Plus/Minus on DraftKings in each of his past three games. That said, he could be an appealing buy-low candidate on today’s slate. His salary has decreased by $1,200 on DraftKings over the past month, and his current $8,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99 percent. He leads all SGs with 11 Pro Trends even in a tough matchup against the Celtics.
Value
Eric Gordon will likely enter the starting lineup for Harden, which makes him quite appealing at just $5,100 on DraftKings. He’s averaged 0.91 fantasy points per minute over the past month and has averaged more than 36 DraftKings points per game with Harden out of the lineup this season:
He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.14 on DraftKings, where he also has a Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
Fast Break
D’Angelo Russell played just 22.5 minutes in his most recent contest but is expected to return to his normal workload today. He played at least 32.5 minutes in three of the four games before that last game and has averaged 1.03 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He’s been priced down to $6,100 on DraftKings for today’s slate, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 93 percent. He has a nice matchup against the Philadelphia 76ers, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.91.
The Cavaliers have the potential to be pretty shorthanded at SG today, with Rodney Hood already ruled out and Kyle Korver currently questionable. That will likely result in more playing time for J.R. Smith and Jordan Clarkson, both of whom have Bargain Ratings of at least 95 percent on FanDuel. Smith is the safer bet to see more minutes, but Clarkson has been significantly better on a per-minute basis.
Small Forward
Stud
LeBron James has been fantastic since the Cavs overhauled their roster and has posted a perfect 100 percent Consistency Rating on DraftKings over his past 10 games. He has a wonderful matchup against the Lakers, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.91, and the Cavs’ implied team total of 115 points is the top mark on the slate. He’s a really strong value on DraftKings, where his $11,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97 percent. The bigger question is how to approach him on FanDuel at $12,500. He’s failed to return value at this salary in two of his past three games, although one of those was by the slimmest of margins. LeBron has been priced above $12,000 just 32 times, and he’s historically failed to pay off that salary:
It’s tough to consider fading him given the matchup and the Cavs’ current injury situation, but $12,500 is an extremely difficult salary for anyone to pay off.
Value
P.J. Tucker could see a boost in value today for the Rockets without Harden. Ryan Anderson remains out, so Tucker could see plenty of minutes between the two forward spots. He’s currently projected for 33.6 minutes in our NBA Models and is priced at just $3,800 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
If Smith can’t go for the Mavericks, Harrison Barnes could see a nice bump in value. He scored 36.9 FanDuel points in approximately 31 minutes without DSJ yesterday and has seen a usage bump of 2.4 percent with him out of the lineup this season.
Tucker isn’t the only SF in play for the Rockets today. Trevor Ariza has led the team in minutes per game with Harden out of the lineup this season, and he’s exceeded salary-based expectations in four of his past five games. Gerald Green could also re-emerge given the Rockets’ injury situation, and he’s priced at the dead minimum on FanDuel.
Power Forward
Stud
Ben Simmons has been a solid value over his past 10 games on FanDuel:
He’s increased his per-minute production over the past month as well, averaging 1.29 fantasy points per minute. He has a solid matchup against the Brooklyn Nets, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.43. The 76ers are implied for 111.75 points, which represents an increase of approximately four points compared to their season average (107.7).
Value
Jeff Green will make his first start of the season for the Cavaliers, which should make him one of the most popular value plays of the day. He has an excellent matchup against the Lakers, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.89. He’s averaged 0.81 fantasy points per minute this season, so he can do some damage when given the opportunity.
Fast Break
Kyle Kuzma has seen major minutes recently given the injury to Brandon Ingram, playing at least 37.5 in three straight games. He’s been excellent as a fantasy producer all season, averaging 0.94 fantasy points per minute on DraftKings, and his current $6,000 salary on DraftKings results in a Bargain Rating of 95 percent.
Larry Nance Jr. has been a force since joining up with LeBron in Cleveland, resulting in an average of 1.31 fantasy points per minute over the past month. That’s the top mark among all PFs on today’s slate, and Nance has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.84 in a #RevengeGame against the Los Angeles Lakers.
Center
Stud
Joel Embiid has possibly the best matchup of the day regardless of position against the Nets. It results in a massive Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.58 on FanDuel. He’s also priced very fairly at the moment, with his salary decreasing by $1,300 over the past month, and his current $9,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 81 percent. It’s rare for a center to be a better value on FanDuel than DraftKings, which makes him even more appealing on today’s slate.
Value
Jarrett Allen has seen a decrease in playing time since the return of Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, playing 21 minutes or less in each of his past three games. That said, it’s possible he could see a few extra minutes today to combat the size of Embiid. His salary has decreased by $800 over the past month, and he’s averaged 0.99 fantasy points per minute over that time frame.
Fast Break
Myles Turner has started to see a few additional minutes for the Indiana Pacers, getting at least 29 in four straight games before Friday’s blowout win against the Hawks. He’s averaged 1.08 fantasy points per minute over the past month on DraftKings, where he’s currently priced at just $5,900.
Julius Randle is one of the best values at the position on DraftKings, where his $7,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95 percent. He also has an awesome matchup against the Cavs, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.03.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
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