The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features an eight-game slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Studs
Today’s slate lacks a true elite PG, but it does feature a few very good PGs in enticing spots. Damian Lillard leads all PGs on DraftKings with 12 Pro Trends and has one of the best matchups of the day against the Chicago Bulls. Portland’s implied team total of 110 points is the top mark on the slate and Lillard has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.96. He’s been quite good of late, averaging a Plus/Minus of +4.35 over his last 10 games and 1.26 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He’s a better value today on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
On FanDuel, the preferred option might be Kemba Walker. His Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.59 is the top mark among all PGs projected for at least 20 minutes. He’s also exceeded salary-based expectations in six of his last eight games and has posted a Consistency Rating of 88 percent over the past month.
Value
Marcus Smart remains out for the Boston Celtics and Kyrie Irving will miss today’s contest with a quad contusion. Terry Rozier has been one of the biggest beneficiaries with both players off the court this season, averaging just under 32 FanDuel points per 36 minutes:
He could be forced into heavy minutes in today’s contest with the Knicks, especially if Shane Larkin is also inactive (currently questionable).
Fast Break
Dallas is one of the top pace-up spots of the day, with their players owning a pace differential (paceD) of +5.3 against the Phoenix Suns. Phoenix is also tied for dead last in defensive efficiency, so this is a wonderful spot for Dallas from a fantasy perspective. JJ Barea missed their last game and is currently questionable for today. His absence would open up a few additional minutes at the PG position. Dennis Smith Jr. played 35 minutes and posted a usage rate of 31.9 percent in their last game without Barea and has averaged 1.01 fantasy points per minute on FanDuel over the past month. He has the potential for a huge game at $6,800 across the industry. Yogi Ferrell would also likely crack the 30-minute mark, although he’s been much less effective on a per-minute basis (0.68 fantasy points per minute). He’s significantly cheaper at just $4,300 on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 98 percent.
Things continue to get worse for the Cleveland Cavaliers. They gave up 125 points to the Pistons’ B team last night and have reportedly lost Kevin Love for 6-8 weeks with a broken hand. One silver lining is that Isaiah Thomas did play one of his best games of the season yesterday. It’s possible he could sit today on the second leg of a back-to-back, but if he’s active, he might be too cheap on DraftKings at $5,600. He played 32 minutes yesterday and has averaged 0.88 fantasy points per minute this season.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Devin Booker missed Phoenix’s last game and is currently questionable for today’s game with a rib injury. If he does suit up, he should be in a wonderful spot against the Dallas Mavericks. Booker recently started operating as the starting PG for the Suns, and the Mavs have allowed the sixth highest average Plus/Minus to opposing PGs this season:
Booker has also been at his best this season when playing PG (per 82games.com):
He’s a better value today on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 95 percent.
Value
Jeremy Lamb has been extremely productive on a per-minute basis this season, averaging 0.99 fantasy points per minute on FanDuel. The only question with him is playing time. He has the potential to see a few additional minutes today given the injury to Marvin Williams. At just $4,200 on FanDuel, he doesn’t need to play much to pay off his current salary.
Fast Break
J.J. Redick is expected to make his return today against the Brooklyn Nets. Assuming he’s not on a minute restriction in his first game back, he seems a bit underpriced on DraftKings. He’s averaged 1.1 fantasy points per minute over the past month, and his current $5,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
Miami gets to take on Cleveland’s atrocious defense on today’s slate, which automatically makes them one of the top teams to target. Wayne Ellington disappointed in his last game, scoring just 14.6 FanDuel points in 27.5 minutes of playing time, but those numbers look like outliers in his recent game log. He played at least 33 minutes in each of the five prior games, which makes him an intriguing buy-low candidate on today’s slate.
Small Forward
Stud
If Thomas does sit out today’s contest, it will be all systems go for LeBron James. LeBron has unsurprisingly dominated with both Thomas and Love off the court this season:
On a slate that lacks true star power, he would easily become the top stud of the day in that situation. If Thomas does play, some fade consideration could be warranted. LeBron is currently projected for 36-40 percent ownership and has averaged just 1.05 FanDuel points per minute when sharing the court with Thomas this season. He’s a better value today on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 95 percent.
Value
Josh Richardson has been extremely reliable recently. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.58 over his last 10 games on FanDuel and a Consistency Rating of 93 percent over the past month. He has one of the best matchups of the day regardless of position against the Cavs, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.20 on FanDuel and +7.54 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Look for T.J. Warren to assume a bigger role for the Suns today if Booker is unable to suit up. He’s posted a usage rate of 29.2 percent with Booker off the court this season, resulting in an average of 34.81 FanDuel points per 36 minutes:
Harrison Barnes has failed to return value in each of his last two games, which is a bit of a surprise given his consistency this season. That said, he’s in an excellent position to bounce back today against the Phoenix Suns. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.20 on FanDuel, where he currently has a Bargain Rating of 81 percent.
Power Forward
Stud
Aaron Gordon missed Orlando’s most recent game and is currently questionable for today’s contest with a hip flexor. If he does suit up, he’ll be in an excellent spot against the Los Angeles Lakers. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.34 on DraftKings, where Gordon has a Bargain Rating of 97 percent.
Values
Ultimately, it seems like a day to pay down at the position. Lauri Markkanen has already been ruled out for the Chicago Bulls and Nikola Mirotic is currently questionable with a leg injury. If both players can’t go, Bobby Portis becomes easily one of the best values of the day. He’s averaged 1.15 fantasy points per minute this season, so he can do a lot of damage if given the opportunity to play extended minutes. He’s especially appealing on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 99 percent.
Frank Kaminsky is another strong value option given the injury to Williams. He will likely enter the starting lineup for the Hornets and has an excellent matchup with the Atlanta Hawks. The Hawks have been the fifth worst team on the glass so far this season, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.06 for Kaminsky on FanDuel.
Fast Break
With Irving and Smart out of the lineup, there’s a chance that the Celtics offense plays really slow today. They’ve only played 256 minutes with both players off the court this season, but they’ve averaged a ridiculously low 90.6 possessions per 48 minutes over that time span. To put that in perspective, Memphis is the slowest team in the league this season at 96.1 possessions per game. We’re talking a snail-like pace here. That said, we can’t fully ignore the value created by their injuries, and Jayson Tatum has seen a seven percent bump in usage with both Irving and Smart off the court this season. He’s averaged 0.84 fantasy points per minute in that situation and could be in line for some extra work today against the Knicks.
Center
Studs
Joel Embiid has been a pretty major disappointment recently:
Today’s matchup with the Nets looks like an awesome spot for him to bounce back. The 76ers’ implied team total of 109.5 ranks third on today’s slate and Embiid’s Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.90 leads all centers on FanDuel. On a slate with a lot of value and not a lot of studs, he should be popular.
Dwight Howard might be the top center option on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 95 percent. Howard has looked rejuvenated all season in Charlotte, but he’s been particularly impressive over his last 10 games, averaging a Plus/Minus of +7.53. He has a great matchup today against the Atlanta Hawks, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.32 on DraftKings, and he shredded this same team for 56.75 DraftKings points last Friday. He could also benefit from a few additional minutes today given the injury to Williams.
Value
Jahlil Okafor has finally gotten some consistent playing time for the Nets, playing at least 23.5 minutes in back-to-back contests. He’s always been productive from a fantasy perspective when given an opportunity, so it’s not surprising that he posted a Plus/Minus of at least +9.51 on FanDuel in each of those two games. He’s still priced at the near minimum on FanDuel ($3,600), so he’s an enticing option for those paying down at the position.
Fast Break
Robin Lopez may see some additional minutes for Chicago today given all their injuries in the frontcourt. He’s currently projected for 28 in our NBA Models and Lopez has historically been an awesome value with a comparable minute projection and salary ($4,000):
Finally, Al Horford could be an interesting contrarian option for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). He’s seen a usage bump of 12.4 percent with Irving and Smart off the floor this season, which he’s converted into an average of 43.52 FanDuel points per 36 minutes:
He’s the rare high-priced center who is actually a better value on FanDuel, owning a Bargain Rating of 95 percent.
Good luck!
Photo via Greg M Cooper-USA TODAY Sports
News Updates
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