The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a seven-game slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Damian Lillard is questionable today after missing the last three games with a hamstring injury, but he should be in a wonderful spot if he makes his return. The Atlanta Hawks have been an abomination recently on the defensive end of the court, ranking 28th in defensive efficiency over the last 15 games. They’re also on the second leg of a back-to-back. They’ve been particularly weak against PGs, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.11 for Lillard on DraftKings. If Lillard can’t go, look for Shabazz Napier to be the primary beneficiary. He’s played at least 34 minutes in each of the last three games and scored at least 33 fantasy points in all of them.
Value
The 76ers have the potential to be pretty shorthanded today, with Joel Embiid ruled out for rest and Robert Covington questionable. That will likely result in a boost in playing time for T.J. McConnell. A few extra minutes could make a huge difference for him given his average of 0.87 fantasy points per minute this season. He has a solid matchup with the Denver Nuggets, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.98.
Fast Break
Ish Smith did not disappoint in his first game as a starter, producing 37.75 fantasy points in roughly 32.5 minutes of playing time. That said, he benefitted from a juicy matchup against the Orlando Magic, as things likely won’t come as easy for him today against the San Antonio Spurs. The Pistons implied team total of 95.5 is easily the lowest mark on today’s slate, and Smith has an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +0.67 on FanDuel.
The Heat are still missing some key contributors with Dion Waiters, James Johnson, and Justise Winslow already ruled out for today’s contest. Goran Dragic has also been limited recently, playing no more than 30.5 minutes in each of his last 13 games. That should result in a massive role for Tyler Johnson, who has posted an average Plus/Minus of +3.48 over his last 10 games on FanDuel. He has arguably the best matchup of the day against the Orlando Magic, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.76.
The Nuggets played a really short rotation in their last game, with only seven players seeing more than 11 minutes of court time. Jamal Murray paced the group with 46 minutes in the overtime loss and has been a solid source of value recently, averaging a Plus/Minus of +6.02 over his last 10 games. He has huge potential at just $6,500 if he’s going to play that much, evidenced by his average of 0.99 fantasy points per minute over the past month.
Shooting Guard
Stud
SG seems a bit weak at the top on today’s slate. CJ McCollum is coming off a huge game, but will likely lose some usage if Lillard returns to the starting lineup. Tyreke Evans has been excellent recently, but the Grizzlies are currently 13.5-point underdogs against the Golden State Warriors. Steph Curry has SG-eligibility on DraftKings, but he’ll likely be on a minutes limit if he does return as expected.
That leaves Donovan Mitchell, who has an excellent matchup today with the defensively challenged Cleveland Cavaliers. The Cavs rank 29th in defensive efficiency this season, giving Mitchell an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.62 on DraftKings. It’s also a solid pace-up spot, resulting in a pace differential (paceD) of +4.8 for the Utah players. He’s especially appealing on DraftKings, where his $6,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Value
Very few players in fantasy basketball offer more night-to-night safety than Gary Harris, who’s posted a Consistency Rating of 92 percent over the past month on FanDuel. He should be in a good spot to return value today against the 76ers: The Nuggets’ implied team total of 111.75 points is tied for the top mark on the slate. Teammate Will Barton could also be an appealing option. He doesn’t offer nearly the same consistency as Harris, but has shown the ability to put up a monster performance in the past.
Fast Break
So far this season, no one on the 76ers has offered more value with Embiid off the court than JJ Redick:
His perimeter shooting could be especially important today if Covington also sits. Redick scored 36.75 DraftKings points in the one game without both Covington and Embiid this season.
Only one SG on today’s slate has been more effective than Kent Bazemore on a per-minute basis over the past month (Evans). The problem with Bazemore is that he very rarely plays 30+ minutes, but the limited minutes haven’t stopped him from averaging a Plus/Minus of +5.55 over his last 10 games.
Small Forward
Studs
With Curry likely to return to the lineup today, Kevin Durant should return to his normal role for the Golden State Warriors. So far this season, Durant has averaged a Plus/Minus of -3.1 and just under 46 DraftKings points per 36 minutes while sharing the court with Curry:
Given that his average salary over that time frame is roughly $700 less than his salary on today’s slate ($10,300), the negative Plus/Minus is definitely a bit concerning. Making matters worse is his matchup with the Memphis Grizzlies, resulting in a paceD of -7.5. While Durant can obviously go off against anyone, this seems like a pretty poor spot for him.
That will likely push the ownership at the position in the favor of LeBron James, who continues to amaze in his 15th season. He’s gone for at least 60 DraftKings points in 10 of his last 11 games, with the lone exception coming on Christmas day against the Warriors. He continues to play as many minutes as anyone – his projection of 38.1 leads all players on today’s slate – and combining the sheer volume he’s seeing with an average of 1.57 fantasy points per minute is a pretty lethal combination. That said, he does have a brutal matchup today with the Utah Jazz. The Cavs’ implied team total of 104.75 points is drastically lower than their season average and LeBron has an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +0.34 on DraftKings. He did go for 62.75 DraftKings points against this same team just two weeks ago, but it’s a tough matchup nonetheless.
Value
Thabo Sefolosha played 33 minutes in the last game for the Utah Jazz, which makes him an intriguing option at just $3,500 on both DraftKings and FanDuel. While there’s no guarantee he’ll play that much today – he’s currently projected for 24.4 minutes in our Player Models – this does profile as a good spot for him against the Cleveland Cavaliers. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.51 on FanDuel, where his ability to pile up defensive statistics is extra valuable: He currently ranks fifth in the league in steal percentage.
Fast Break
Courtney Lee has been rock steady recently, exceeding salary-based expectations in seven of his last eight games on DraftKings. He’s been one of the biggest beneficiaries of the injury to Tim Hardaway Jr, seeing a usage increase of 3.3 percent:
He has a strong matchup with the New Orleans Pelicans, evidenced by his Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.35.
Kawhi Leonard was a late scratch on Thursday for rest purposes, which should theoretically make him safe for today. His $6,300 salary on DraftKings makes him pretty intriguing: He’s averaged 1.25 fantasy points per minute since returning from injury and could approach 30 minutes in today’s contest.
Power Forward
Studs
Ben Simmons has the potential to see some extra offensive responsibilities with Embiid out of the lineup today. He’s seen a usage increase of 4.3 percent with Embiid off the court this season, although his performance in games without Embiid has left something to be desired:
However, his price has come down quite a bit since its peak: His current $8,700 salary on FanDuel is the result of a salary decrease of $1,700 over the past month. He could be an intriguing buy low option in what should be a fast-paced contest with the Denver Nuggets.
Kristaps Porzingis seems fully recovered from his ankle injury, scoring at least 40 DraftKings points in each of his last four games. His salary on DraftKings has yet to really reflect his recent production, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 95 percent. He has a solid matchup against the New Orleans Pelicans, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.72. He continues to dominate possessions for the Knicks, with his usage rate of 33.1 percent ranking fifth in the league this season.
Value
Derrick Favors has a great matchup today against the Cleveland Cavaliers, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.91 on FanDuel. He continues to be a solid source of value with Rudy Gobert out of the lineup, averaging over 31 FanDuel points per game:
Fast Break
Tobias Harris is another member of the Pistons who seems likely to benefit from the injury to Jackson. He’s seen the second largest usage increase on the team with Jackson off the floor this season and has averaged just under 33 FanDuel points per 36 minutes:
Despite the fact that the Warriors continue to get healthier, Jordan Bell has remained a fixture in their rotation. He’s been a nice source of value over his last 10 games:
Center
Stud
The PG change for the Pistons could make a huge impact for Andre Drummond. So far this season, Drummond has seen a massive increase in value with Jackson off the floor:
He’s scored at least 44.5 FanDuel points in three straight games, although he has a tough matchup today against the San Antonio Spurs.
Value
Richaun Holmes should get back into the rotation due to the absence of Embiid, which makes him an intriguing value option across the industry. He’s averaged roughly 22.5 DraftKings points per game in seven games without Embiid, which would be more than enough for him to return value at his current salary.
Fast Break
You never know how many minutes Enes Kanter is going to play in a given game, but if he sees towards the high end of his range, he has the potential to be a massive value against the Pelicans. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.83 on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 81 percent.
No one at the position has a better Bargain Rating on FanDuel than Jusuf Nurkic at 98 percent. He hasn’t been playing a ton of minutes recently, but that may not matter in an elite matchup against the Atlanta Hawks.
Good luck!
Photo via Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports
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