The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Logan Gilbert (R) $8,500 Seattle Mariners (-170) vs. San Diego Padres
Gilbert may not be a true fantasy ace, but he’s been a reliable starter since making his debut back in 2021. He’s not off to his best start this season, pitching to a 9.36 K/9 and 4.34 xERA, but he’s coming off an outstanding outing in his last contest. He pitched six scoreless innings with nine strikeouts, and he allowed just one hit. The result was more than 30 DraftKings points at a pretty reasonable price tag.
Gilbert is getting plenty of love on Saturday from the oddsmakers. The Mariners are the largest favorites of the day at -170, while the Padres’ 3.1 implied team total is the lowest on the slate by a wide margin. Every other team is implied for at least 3.7 runs, giving Gilbert a clear edge over the rest of the field. He also ranks second on the slate in terms of K Prediction, so he checks all the boxes.
Additionally, Gilbert benefits from pitching at home. Seattle has one of the most pitcher-friendly venues in baseball, and Gilbert has historically been at his best there. Specifically, his K/9 is nearly a full strikeout higher than it is on the road.
Add in an $8,500 salary, and Gilbert stands out as the clear top value at pitcher. He ranks first in projected Plus/Minus, and he’s No. 2 in median and ceiling projection.
MLB DFS Value Pick
David Peterson (L) $6,200 New York Mets (+105) vs. New York Yankees
Peterson won’t start for the Mets on Saturday, but he is expected to pitch the bulk of the innings following an opener. That’s actually a positive for fantasy purposes. It gives him a greater shot at picking up a win since he doesn’t actually have to last five full innings.
Peterson has also performed admirably since moving into the “follower” role. He has a ghastly 8.10 ERA as a starter this season, but he owns a 1.69 mark in 16 innings as a reliever. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in back-to-back outings despite failing to earn a win in either contest.
Peterson has a solid track record at the MLB level. He pitched to a 2.90 ERA in 2024, and he got off to a fantastic start in 2025. Perhaps this new role will help him get back to that level of production. He continues to generate ground balls at an elite rate, ranking in the 90th percentile for that metric. That helps him keep the ball in the ballpark.
Ultimately, Peterson is too cheap based on his track record and recent production. He’ll have a tough matchup vs. the Yankees, but the Yankees aren’t infallible. They have the 12th-highest strikeout rate against southpaws this season, giving Peterson a smidge of upside.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Jacob deGrom (R) $9,500 Texas Rangers (-150) at Houston Astros
Jacob deGrom will turn 38 years old this season, but he’s still getting the job done at a really high level. He no longer throws 100 miles per hour, but that hasn’t stopped him from racking up 11.49 strikeouts per nine innings and a 2.62 ERA. His Vegas data isn’t quite as impressive as Gilbert’s, but he owns the top K Prediction in our MLB Models.
Carlos Rodon (L) $7,600 New York Yankees (-125) at New York Mets
On the other side of the Subway Series, Rodon will make his second start of the year for the Yankees. Things didn’t go great in his first – 4.1 innings, five walks, three runs allowed – but he’ll get to face a Mets’ lineup that couldn’t hit water if it fell out of a boat. They’re 27th in the league in runs per game, and they’re 26th in wRC+ vs. southpaws. Rodon is still priced a bit cheaper than usual, and this could be the spot where his season really starts rolling.
Bryce Elder (R) $8,400 Atlanta Braves (-125) vs. Boston Red Sox
The Braves have the best record in baseball at the moment, and Elder has been a big part of their success. He owns a 1.90 ERA through nine starts, and his 2.90 xERA puts him in the 82nd percentile. He’s also added some strikeout upside in recent outings, punching out at least eight batters in back-to-back games. He has the chance at another strong showing against the Red Sox, who are dead last in wRC+ vs. right-handers.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by projected points belongs to the Athletics:
The Athletics will host the Giants on Saturday in what is expected to be the highest-scoring game on the main slate. It has a total of 9.5 runs, while no other contest is above 8.5. The A’s are listed as favorites in that contest, giving them the top implied team total on the slate at 5.1 runs.
The Athletics’ offense hasn’t quite been firing on all cylinders so far this season, but they’re still 12th in the league in runs per game. When playing at their small home stadium, that figure jumps up to seventh.
Their lineup is chock-full of players who can take you deep. Nick Kurtz got most of the attention after slugging 36 homers in just 117 games as a rookie, but Brent Rooker, Shea Langeliers, and Tyler Soderstrom are also extremely dangerous. All four guys (and Carlos Cortes) have an ISO of at least .215 against right-handers dating back to the start of last season (via Plate IQ):
How you choose to stack the A’s will be an interesting factor on this slate. You could certainly go with the top five guys in their projected lineup, but THE BAT X likes the idea of replacing Cortes with Zach Gelof. He’s projected for more fantasy points at a slightly cheaper salary, and that should help from an ownership perspective as well.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Bryce Eldridge, 1B ($2,300) San Francisco Giants at Athletics (Luis Severino)
The Giants are another team that has been desperate for offense this season. As a result, they’ve promoted one of their top hitting prospects to the majors. Eldridge has elite raw power, and he clubbed 25 homers in 102 minor league games last season. He’s off to a slow start in the majors, but he does have one homer through his first eight games.
The Giants should command less ownership than the A’s, but they benefit from the same elite Park Factor on Saturday. Luis Severino is also not a pitcher you need to fear. He owns a 4.56 xERA this season, and he ranks below average in barrel rate and hard-hit rate. Stacking the Giants has plenty of appeal, but using Eldridge as a standalone option is also viable. He owns the top projected Plus/Minus among batters in our blended projection set.
Mickey Gasper, C/1B ($2,400) Boston Red Sox at Atlanta Braves (Bryce Elder)
I’m always a sucker for a cheap catcher, and Gaspar fits that description for the Red Sox. He’s technically spent more time as a first baseman or DH this season, but you can use him in the catcher spot for fantasy purposes. Gasper has also moved up into the No. 2 spot in the Red Sox’s lineup recently, and finding a cheap catcher with a premium lineup spot is nearly impossible.
Gasper has produced a positive Plus/Minus in four of five games since being promoted to the majors. He draws a tough matchup Saturday vs. Elder, but he still leads all catchers in projected Plus/Minus.
Jo Adell, OF ($3,800) Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (Justin Wrobleski)
Adell is a former top prospect who finally broke out in 2025. He launched 37 homers, and he became one of the most dangerous hitters in baseball against left-handed pitchers. Since the start of last year, Adell owns an elite .327 ISO and .399 wOBA in that split.
Adell will get to square off against a southpaw on Saturday in Justin Wrobleski. While Wrobleski is off to a strong start this season, his 4.08 xERA is significantly worse than his 2.40 actual mark. He’s allowed plenty of loud contact, so Adell has the potential to do some damage in this spot.
Pictured: Logan Gilbert
Photo Credit: Imagn
