The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Chris Sale ($9,500) Atlanta Braves (-218) vs. Minnesota Twins
Saturday features four solid matchups on the night slate, and the best arm available is Chris Sale of the Braves as they welcome in the Twins. Sale and the Braves are the heaviest favorites on the slate, and Sale has the highest strikeout prediction by a margin of two full strikeouts.
So far this season, Sale has been inconsistent overall, going 0-2 with a 6.63 ERA, but his FIP is still solid at 3.66, and his 4.30 xERA shows he has also been a little unlucky. His strikeout rate has also been consistent at 11.4 K/9 this season, with 24 strikeouts in 19 innings. His strikeouts have helped him produce over 11 DraftKings points in three of his four starts despite disappointing overall results. He hasn’t been able to last longer than five innings in any outing this year.
However, our Projections expect him to find his groove at home on Saturday against the Twins in what should be a very favorable matchup. Minnesota has the lowest implied run total on the slate and the lowest wOBA on the slate as well. In their 20 games, the Twins have scored just 3.5 runs per game with a .214 team batting average.
Against lefties, the Twins have been even worse, hitting just .118 as a team with a 33.1% K% against lefties, which is the highest in the MLB. They have a paltry .176 wOBA against lefties, with just a 13 wRC+. Since 100 is the league average by definition, the Twins are 87% below average against lefties like Sale. This should be a great spot for him to get on track and post a dominant outing on Saturday.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Landen Roupp ($7,500) San Francisco Giants (-135) at Los Angeles Angels
Roupp has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all starting pitchers on the slate behind only Sale. The 26-year-old righty has the second-highest ceiling projection and the second-highest strikeout prediction behind Sale even though he has only the fifth-highest salary of the starting pitchers available.
Last year, Roupp worked primarily out of the bullpen, but he ramped up as a starting pitcher and earned a spot in the starting rotation with an excellent Spring Training. He didn’t allow a run in his first three games, tossing 8 1/3 scoreless frames with just two hits allowed and 11 strikeouts. He did get knocked around a little bit in his last spring start against the Cubs.
In his first start of the season, he had eight strikeouts in four innings against the Astros for 14.2 DraftKings points. He followed that with an even more impressive home outing against the Reds, allowing one run in six innings and racking up four strikeouts in a no-decision.
In his most recent start, he gave up three runs in the first inning to the Phillies on the road, but then he settled down and went five innings with eight strikeouts to earn his first win of the season and 17.9 DraftKings points.
His 20 strikeouts in 15 innings show his high ceiling, and he’ll get a favorable matchup against the Angels, who have scored three runs or fewer in five straight games. Over the last seven days, the Angels have a MLB-high 34.2% K% and have hit just .196 as a team. The matchup makes Roupp a great value play Saturday in Anaheim.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Luis Severino ($6,800) Athletics (+105) at Milwaukee Brewers
Since signing with the Athletics as their big free-agent acquisition, Severino has had a few good starts and pitched better than his 0-3 record indicates. He has a 4.01 ERA and 4.77 FIP with 21 strikeouts in 24 2/3 innings. However, he has two starts with over 18 DraftKings points, which gives him attractive upside in his road game against the Brewers, where he should have relatively low ownership and be a good source of leverage.
Severino has made three of his four starts at hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park, which has skewed some of his results, allowing 11 runs in 13 innings over two home starts against the Cubs and Padres. His one road start was his first outing of the year in Seattle, when he threw six shutout innings with six strikeouts and 20.7 DraftKings points in that appearance.
After those two rough starts, Severino bounced back in his last home game against the Mets, holding them to just one run in 5 2/3 innings on Sunday. He finished with 18.6 DraftKings points in that game even though he was tagged with another loss.
The Brewers have won three straight games but haven’t scored more than five runs in any of their last six contests. Over that span, they are hitting .220 as a team with a 24.2% strikeout rate. They aren’t as favorable a matchup as the Angels or Twins, which is why Severino is more of a GPP play than a safe cash game option, but he should be a solid source of leverage with a good ceiling Saturday.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by projected points using the tournament model belongs to the San Francisco Giants:
The Giants were shut out on Friday, but the projections are highlighting them to bounce back in a big way against Kyle Hendricks ($6,000). The top five hitters in the lineup only cost a total of just over $20,000 but are projected to work together to produce well over 40 DraftKings points. Hendricks gave up five runs in four innings to the Astros in his last start and has a 1.20 WHIP this season. His WHIP has been at least that high in each of his last five seasons, and he tends to pitch to contact at this point in his career.
That approach should give plenty of chances to Mike Yastrzemski ($3,900), Willy Adames ($4,000), and Jung Hoo Lee ($4,600) at the top of the order. Lee is off to an outstanding start to the season, hitting .361 with three homers and a .455 wOBA in his first 19 games. His breakout seems to be legitimate and makes him a very strong option from under $5,000 as part of this stack or as a standalone play against Hendricks.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Fernando Tatis Jr. OF ($6,000) San Diego Padres at Houston Astros (Hayden Wesneski)
In the aggregate projections, Tatis has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of all hitters in the aggregate projections. He and the Padres are 15-5 with the best record in the MLB as they take on the Astros on Saturday night in Houston.
Tatis is hitting a red-hot .342 this season with six home runs, six stolen bases, 17 runs scored, 14 RBI, and a .438 wOBA. He has a 50.8% hard-hit rate and 18.5% barrel rate that gives him an even higher .481 xwOBA, which indicates that he could be in line for some positive regression based on how well he’s hitting it.
He is averaging 12.3 DraftKings points per game with at least seven DraftKings points in five of his last seven games. Tatis and the Padres are in a good spot, and here’s how they stack up in our PlateIQ tool, which I think looks especially sharp in dark mode:
Alex Verdugo OF ($3,000) Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins (Simeon Woods Richardson)
Verdugo made his 2025 debut for the Braves on Friday, batting leadoff and allowing the rest of the lineup to return to their more comfortable spots lower in the order. Michael Harris II ($4,400) had two hits and a stolen base and seems to be much more comfortable not leading off, so Verdugo will likely get another start in the leadoff spot on Saturday.
In his minor league work this season, Verdugo went 6-for-29 (.207) with two home runs and a stolen base over the span of nine games in Triple-A. He went 0-for-5 in his start on Friday, but he has a great ceiling as a bounce-back option.
Woods-Richardson has let lefties hit .423 in his first few starts this year with a .475 wOBA, so stacking Braves’ lefties (both on the mound and at the plate) is a solid strategy for Saturday.
Jose Iglesias 2B ($2,800) San Diego Padres at Houston Astros (Hayden Wesneski)
Iglesias has been a great fill-in at 2B for Jake Cronenworth (ribs), and he still comes extremely cheap if you are looking to save salary to spend up on other San Diego options.
Iglesias has hit safely in each of his last five games, going 7-for-18 (.389) with three doubles, a stolen base, and an average of 9.2 DraftKings points per game.
On the year, he’s hitting .300 with a .324 wOBA. While he doesn’t typically hit for a ton of power, he has been making good contact and piling up counting stats as a regular part of the Padres’ order.
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