The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Kris Bubic ($8,900) Kansas City Royals (-220) vs. Colorado Rockies
You’ll notice a theme today that the best pitching options get there not so much from their own ability, but due to the matchups they have on Tuesday. The first of those is Bubic, who is typically considered pretty far from a frontline starter but gets to face the Rockies away from Colorado.
To Bubic’s credit, he does have a sub-2.00 ERA this season, though he’s made just four starts. However, he hasn’t pitched more than 30 innings in a season since 2022, and his ERA was 5.58 that season. While it’s reasonable to suggest the young lefty has gotten better and healthier since then, I’d bet my house his ERA this year finishes over 2.00 if he makes double-digit starts this season.
However, it probably doesn’t happen today. That’s because he’s taking on the Rockies, who have a 67 wRC+ as a team both overall and against southpaws. They’re implied for just 3.3 runs, and the Royals are heavy favorites.
Colorado also does a ton to boost upside, with a whopping eight of their nine projected hitters having strikeout rates over 28% over the past two seasons. Limited runs and extra strikeouts are a perfect combination and explain why Bubic leads the slate in both median and ceiling projection.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Bailey Ober ($6,900) Minnesota Twins (-250) vs. Chicago White Sox
The only pitcher with similar Vegas Data to Bubic on the slate is Ober, as he draws a comparable matchup against the basement-dwelling White Sox. Chicago is implied for just 3.4 runs, with the Twins installed as the heaviest moneyline favorites on the slate.
The 29-year-old Ober is the inverse of Bubic statistically. He’s struggled to a 6.16 ERA to start the season but is coming off three straight seasons of sub-4.00 ERA marks. Given his youth and the larger sample size, he should start to work back closer to his career numbers soon.
The White Sox’s wRC+ of 68 is just one point higher than the Rockies, though to their credit they’re much better at putting the ball in play. Chicago isn’t a high strikeout team, which limits Ober’s upside a bit. For what it’s worth, Ober’s swinging strike rate points to some positive regression to his career 25.3% K rate.
Of course, priced under $7,000, we don’t need a ton for him to pay off. He leads the slate in Pts/Sal by a massive margin and is a lock for cash games. Ober isn’t a bad GPP play either, as he could pay off by allowing you to save salary for hitters. However, his ownership projection leads the slate, so he’s less of a lock for tournaments.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Jose Soriano ($8,300) Los Angeles Angels (-200) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
The last of our dream matchup pitchers on Tuesday is Soriano. While the Pirates aren’t quite as pitiful as the Rockies or White Sox, they’re still a bad offense. They have a 70 wRC+ as a team while striking out at a top-five rate.
It looks like Soriano will be falling through the cracks from an ownership standpoint, since his upside isn’t quite as high as Bubic’s and his value isn’t as strong as Ober’s. However, he’s been the most consistent arm of the bunch, with a career 3.44 ERA over 180+ innings pitched.
His limited strikeout potential (22.9% career rate) limits him a bit, but his ownership and price tag are both low enough that it can be overlooked. We have him outside of the top five in ownership, making him an excellent pivot from the chalky Ober/Bubic combo.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Minnesota Twins:
The Twins 5.3-run implied total is the second highest on the slate, making their price tags an absurd value. In fact, you can include their starting pitcher (Ober) and still spend less than half of your salary cap on the six-player super stack.
That’s a pretty obvious misprice from DraftKings considering they’re -250 favorites over the worst team in the American League. You also get the correlation between hitter production and Ober’s win bonus with the full team onslaught.
The only real drawback here is ownership, as this pricing mistake isn’t exactly subtle. Load up on the Twins for cash games, but consider getting creative somewhere for large-field GPPs.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Brent Rooker OF ($5,300) Athletics vs. Texas Rangers (Patrick Corbin)
Happy Patrick Corbin ($6,000) day! The Rangers lefty has been our favorite target to pick on for years now, and outside of his super-powered performance in his last start, it’s paid off. He has a 3.86 ERA through two starts this season — but an xFIP more than two runs higher.
This time it’s the Athletics who get the privilege. Tyler Soderstrom ($5,200) has drawn the headlines this year, but against lefties there’s a different young slugger who stands out. That’s Rooker, whose PlateIQ screenshot is eye-catching.
You don’t see ISO figures over .300 often (since the start of 2024, only Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani have cleared that mark), and the Twins value makes it easy to afford his salary. He’ll be in most of my lineups.
Bobby Witt SS ($5,800) Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado Rockies (Ryan Feltner)
The Royals also have a team total of over five runs today and a solid matchup with Rockies righty Ryan Feltner. Feltner has a career ERA a bit over 5.00, and while some of that is due to his home ballpark, his 4.77 road ERA is still bad.
Witt is another player we can afford more easily thanks to the value on the slate. Especially if we pair him with Royals leadoff hitter Jonathan India ($3,500), who is drastically underpriced for his role and the team’s implied total.
There are other solid options to make a mini stack around the Royals that pairs well with the Twins, but these two allow you to roster the Twins first four bats and still have plenty of available salary.
Corbin Carrol OF ($6,100) Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays (Zack Littell)
The Diamondbacks star outfielder trails only Witt and Buxton in median projection among hitters, with lower ownership projections thanks to his elevated price tag.
He’s a good enough player that he should always be in your player pool, but it’s an especially good spot for him tonight. Arizona is implied for 5.1 runs, and Littell has allowed a .353 batting average to lefties this season.
The speedy Carrol also does most of his base stealing against righties, raising his upside even further tonight.
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Pictured: Byron Buxton
Photo Credit: Getty Images
