The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Ryan Weathers (L) $8,300 New York Yankees (-177) at Baltimore Orioles
There are not really any true “stud” pitchers on Monday’s slate, so much as solid players with varying degrees of matchups. One of those being the Yankees’ Ryan Weathers, who travels to Baltimore to take on the Orioles.
Baltimore is implied for four runs, which is somewhat higher than we normally want to see from our top pitcher. However, there’s a fairly wide range of outcomes for their offensive prospects, and by extension, Weathers. His numbers are all over the place, with a 3.03 ERA, 4.66 xERA, and 2.95 xFIP. In theory those numbers will converge throughout the season, but converge to which one?
The real appeal to Weathers from a DFS standpoint, though, is his strikeouts. His 28.5% rate is the best on the slate (at least among pitchers with a solid sample size). The Orioles also strike out at a well-above-average 24.6% clip against southpaws.
All things considered, that makes Weathers a somewhat boom-or-bust option, as he could just as easily give up some early runs and get pulled fairly quickly as he could rack up double-digit Ks. That’s more than acceptable at his price point, and ultimately ownership should dictate whether or not you’re willing to take the risk in GPPs.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Michael Soroka (R) $7,300 Arizona Diamondbacks (+114) at Texas Rangers
Soroka is the only thing stopping Weathers from leading the slate in all three of median/ceiling/Pts/sal projections, with Soroka on top in the final category. Like Weathers, though, he also has a somewhat wide range of outcomes as a slight underdog on the road in Arlington.
Michael Soroka also has a mixed bag of run-prevention numbers this season. His 4.14 ERA isn’t ideal, and his xERA north of 5.00 is even worse – but his FIP, xFIP, and SIERA are all under 3.5. I tend to value those more advanced stats a bit more than ERA and xERA, but it’s hard to be extremely confident that his “true ability” is that of a mid-three ERA pitcher.
On the plus side, he also brings a solid strikeout rate of a bit over 25%, with the swinging-strike numbers to back it up. The Rangers are a roughly league-average team in terms of strikeouts, so there’s no big boost there, but we don’t need a ton from Soroka at his salary.
He’s effectively the poor man’s Weathers today, with his opponent implied for slightly more runs, his K prediction about a half strikeout lower, and a $1,000 cheaper salary. That makes him a solid, if not risky, SP2, or you could build around Soroka and another cheap pitcher and load up on star hitters.
Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Nathan Eovaldi (R) $8,500 Texas Rangers (-134) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Nathan Eovaldi‘s projections are just behind Weathers’, with a price tag $200 higher. The matchup with Arizona gives him a tighter range of outcomes, since the Diamondbacks are a worse lineup but also strike out less than the Orioles, and Eovaldi himself has a lower strikeout rate. If the $200 doesn’t impact your lineup elsewhere, Eovaldi is probably the safer cash game option.
George Kirby (R) $8,700 Seattle Mariners (-140) at Houston Astros
Kirby has the best ERA of any pitcher on the slate at 2.94 through eight starts. He’s also facing one of the toughest opposing lineups, with Houston ranking third in wRC+ against righties. Typically, the adage is “good pitching beats good hitting.” However, with Mariners pitchers getting such a massive boost from their home ballpark, I’m fundamentally opposed to rostering them on the road. We’re paying for their average production, which is, of course, a blend of home and road games. Kirby’s career ERA is a full run higher on the road, though, so he’s overpriced for the likeliest outcome. I can see the case for him since he projects similarly to Weathers and Eovaldi, but it’s gonna be a no from me, dog.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the New York Yankees:
The lack of expensive pitchers worth paying up for means we can actually afford a full Yankees stack today, despite their average price tag coming in at over $5,200 per player. Most of that is, naturally, concentrated around Aaron Judge ($6,500) and Ben Rice ($6,000), who are two of the top three hitters in baseball by wRC+ this season.
That’s a tall order for Brandon Young ($8,000) of the Orioles. The second-year righty has a 4.35 ERA, worse underlying numbers, a low strikeout rate, and a high fly-ball rate. None of that is a great profile for his start at Camden Yards, which typically boosts home runs by about 13% over the average ballpark.
There’s never a bad time for a full Yankees stack, but this is an especially good one considering both the salary dynamics and the matchup. I’ll make an effort to be contrarian elsewhere while loading up on New York hitters.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Brendan Donovan 3B ($3,600) Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros (Peter Lambert)
The corollary to the “don’t roster Mariners pitchers on the road” rule I follow is “roster Mariners hitters on the road.” With the extreme park factors in Seattle, their bats are naturally going to have better numbers on the road while being priced for the average of their home/road performance.
This impact hasn’t really hit Brendan Donovan yet; he actually has better home numbers in his first season as a Mariner. However, it should get there over time, and he’s drastically underpriced as the leadoff hitter in a lineup implied for 4.9 runs. Plus, he fits easily around the top Yankees stack from a positional standpoint, as well as providing salary relief.
Jo Adell OF ($3,900) Los Angeles Angels at Cleveland Guardians (Joey Cantillo)
The Angels are implied for a fairly low 3.9 runs tonight in Cleveland. That is, in large part, due to their poor overall numbers against left-handed pitching. However, using PlateIQ, I was able to find some glaring exceptions to that rule:
Zach Neto ($5,200) is hard to get to from a salary standpoint, but Adell has better numbers and is reasonably cheap. He’s been far better against lefties his whole career, with his OPS 130 points higher than against righties. He’s also likely to be fairly low-owned, which is also important on this slate.
Interested in more MLB action? Check out Polymarket and use our Polymarket invite code.
Pictured: Ryan Weathers
Photo Credit: Imagn
