The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
DraftKings and FanDuel are each offering large guaranteed prize pools for Game 3 of the NBA Finals between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors at 9 p.m. ET.
FanDuel’s contests feature five-man rosters, a $60,000 cap and scoring multipliers for whichever player you designate as the MVP (2x), Star (1.5x), and Pro (1.2x). FanDuel’s multipliers introduce more lineup combinations and should help to limit some of the all-too-common ties that occur in these contests.DraftKings is debuting a new format for their biggest tournament: Showdown Captain Mode. Instead of the traditional six-man roster, you’ll now have to choose one captain, who scores 1.5x points but also costs 1.5x his traditional salary. Choosing a high-priced player means you’ll have to sacrifice more of your available cap space but gives you added upside if you choose the correct stud. Choosing a low-priced player limits how many additional points your captain will score but allows you to create a more balanced roster. It’s a really cool idea by DraftKings and should lead to a lot of unique lineups despite the limited player pool.
Golden State Warriors (-4) at Cleveland Cavaliers | O/U: 216.5
9 p.m. ET | ABC
The Warriors dominated in Game 2, extending their lead to 2-0 as the series heads back to Cleveland. There’s reason to believe the Cavs could steal a game at home, as they’ve been 8-1 and posted a Net Rating of +9.2 while playing in Cleveland during the postseason. Sharp bettors apparently favor the Cavs, with the spread moving from 5.5 to 4.0 despite 52% of the bets coming in on the Warriors.
Warriors (110.25 implied points)
Stephen Curry has moved to an overwhelming favorite to win the Finals MVP after making a record nine 3-pointers in Game 2. One of those makes will likely appear in his highlight real for a long, long time:
Steph Curry's buzzer-beater… as heard around the world! #NBAFinals #DubNation pic.twitter.com/oLp2luxFvB
— NBA (@NBA) June 4, 2018
The Cavs have really had no answer for Curry during the series, with him exceeding his per-100-possession scoring average against both J.R. Smith and George Hill. Curry has also been relentless in targeting Kevin Love on switches, and he’s nearly doubled his usage rate in that matchup and exceeded his per-100 scoring average by 22.7 points. There’s really no way to hide Love if he’s on the court, so expect Curry to try and exploit him again in Game 3.
Kevin Durant would be getting much more attention if not for the play of Curry. Durant has scored at least 51.25 DraftKings points in both games against the Cavs, thanks in part to his average of 9.0 rebounds and 6.5 assists per game. Peripheral stats have not been a problem for Duran in this series after he really struggled in that department against the Rockets. He’s averaging 26.0 points per game in this series, and he averaged over 35 against the Cavs in last year’s finals, so he has the potential for a huge game if he increases his scoring production while maintaining his peripherals. Durant will likely have lower ownership than Curry, which makes him an interesting target from a game-theory perspective.
Draymond Green disappointed in Game 2 after finishing as the Warriors’ top fantasy option in Game 1. Green attempted just four shots from the field, and while scoring isn’t a huge part of Green’s game, he’s going to need to score more than just five points to realize his full fantasy potential.
Klay Thompson was questionable heading into Game 2 with an ankle injury, but he played and showed no ill effects from a scoring perspective, scoring 20 points on a super efficient 8-of-13 from the field. However, his overall fantasy line was effected by tallying just two rebounds, one assist, and one steal. Peripherals have long been the issue for Thompson, and they’re a big reason why he averages just 31.7 DraftKings points per game. He could make sense at his current salary, but he’s going to need a big scoring night to hit value.
The big news for the Warriors for Game 3 is the likely return of Andre Iguodala. Head coach Steve Kerr said he expects Iguodala to play, although Kerr is unsure how many minutes Iguodala will ultimately be able to handle. There’s no guarantee Iguodala returns to the starting lineup given Javale McGee’s success in Game 2, so it will be tough to trust him even if active tonight.
Speaking of McGee, he looks like one of the best values on the slate at just $1,200 on DraftKings. McGee shouldn’t be expected to play more than 15-18 minutes, but he has proven that he can average over a fantasy point per minute in his current role. He’ll likely have high ownership after Game 2, but he’s capable of returning well over 10x value at his current salary.
The return of Iguodala puts the rest of the Warriors’ rotation in jeopardy. Nick Young could pick up a “DNP-coach’s decision” after playing in each of the first two games, while Kevon Looney and Jordan Bell could both see a reduction in their roles. Shaun Livingston remains the safest option among the Warriors’ reserves after finding himself in the winning DraftKings lineups for both Game 1 and Game 2. However, Livingston has shot a perfect 9-of-9 from the field and 2-of-2 from the free-throw line over that span and could be in for regression moving forward.
Cavaliers (106.25 implied points)
LeBron James remains the most expensive player on DraftKings by a significant margin and has averaged 69.88 fantasy points through the first two games of this series. LeBron is obviously well worth a roster spot in what is essentially a must-win game, but the bigger question is if he’s worthy of the Captain spot. His salary is extremely prohibitive, and it therefore limits your ability to squeeze in multiple studs. But if he goes off for a massive game, that may not matter. LwBron could also be a somewhat contrarian option at the position, as it seems like there are more appealing lower-priced options, so this could be the night to pay up for The King.
Kevin Love has been a nice value to start this series, scoring at least 40.25 DraftKings points in each of the first two games. That said, Love still has room to improve given his shooting numbers, as he’s shot just 42.1% from the field and 25.0% from the 3-point line, both of which represent decreases when compared to his regular-season averages. Love is one of the few members of the Cavs who has actually averaged fewer fantasy points at home during the postseason, but he still seems like a nice bet at his current salary.
The Cavs role players have been a disaster for much of the playoffs, but as I just mentioned, they’ve proven to be more viable at home. George Hill in particular has been an excellent option in Cleveland, averaging roughly seven more fantasy points per game despite averaging 3.3 fewer minutes. Hill has arguably the best individual matchup on the team against Curry. Hill’s coming off 29.0 DraftKings points in Game 2.
J.R. Smith committed one of the most memorable plays in NBA history in Game 1, and not in a good way. Smith struggled to rebound from that in Game 2, scoring just 13.25 DraftKings points in 31 minutes. That said, he does look like an interesting bounce-back option in Cleveland. He’s been averaging close to 38 minutes per game as of late, but he’s shot just 26.3% from the field during the Finals. He was better from the field and 3-point range at home during the regular season, however, and thus could be in for positive regression.
Tristan Thompson scored 17.25 DraftKings points in Game 2 of this series, but there’s reason to believe that performance will go down as an outlier. Thompson saw just 23 minutes in that game, only three more than he saw in his horrible Game 1 performance. His role is trending downward in this series, which makes him tough to justify at his current salary.
Jeff Green is intriguing for Game 3. Green logged just 20 minutes in Game 2 after playing 36 in Game 1, and that upside for playing time makes him a nice bounce-back candidate as well.
Larry Nance Jr. could also be an interesting bounce-back candidate. Nance has averaged over 1.0 fantasy points per minute during this series, but his playing time has fluctuated a bit between Games 1 and 2.
The last spot in their rotation will likely come down to Jordan Clarkson or Rodney Hood. Clarkson has been the Cavs’ preferred target during the postseason, but there’s reason to believe that Hood could get those minutes in Game 3. Clarkson has been horrendous from the field as of late, shooting just 28.6% since the start of the Eastern Conference Finals, and the Cavs desperately need someone to step up and make shots. Hood has proven to be a capable scorer in the past and is a career 36.9% shooter from 3-point range. He’s appealing at just $1,000 on DraftKings.
Good luck tonight, and be sure to check out The Action Network for more in-depth NBA analysis.
Pictured Above: LeBron James
Photo Credit: David Richards – USA Today Sports
