NBA

NBA DFS Picks Breakdown on DraftKings (Wednesday, April 29)

Wednesday features a three-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.

 


Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Become an All-Access Member Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models & projections

NFL, MLB, NBA, and PGA Sims
Become an All-Access Member
 

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

No one expected the Pistons to be facing elimination this early into the playoffs. They dominated the Eastern Conference during the regular season, yet they’re currently down 1-3 against the eighth-seeded Orlando Magic. Every concern that people expressed about their offense has come to fruition, with just three players averaging more than 10 points per game.

If the Pistons are going to dig themselves out of this hole, they’re going to need some big performances from Cade Cunningham. He’s averaged 29.5 points, 7.5 assists, and 6.3 rebounds per game in this series, so he has at least been pretty productive.

Cunningham has the potential for even more moving forward. His shot has betrayed him over the past two games, going a combined 15-46 from the field and 6-21 from 3-point range. He’s had a usage rate of at least 37.6% in both contests, which represents a sizable increase from his 30.5% mark during the regular season.

Expect another expanded usage rate from Cunningham in a must-win game. He could also pick up a few additional minutes, giving him the top ceiling projection at point guard by a wide margin.

Value

The Rockets managed to stave off elimination in Game 4, picking up a win without Kevin Durant. Unfortunately, they’re going to be without KD once again in Game 5, and now the series shifts back to Los Angeles. The Rockets are listed as 4.5-point underdogs, and they’ll need to pick up three straight wins to advance to the second round.

With Durant sidelined, Reed Sheppard has become more important to Houston. They simply need guys who can put the ball in the basket, and Sheppard is one of them. He’s played at least 28.6 minutes in all three playoff games without Durant, and he’s scored more than 30 DraftKings points in each of them.

Sheppard is projected for another 36 minutes on Wednesday, and he’s averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s simply too cheap at $5,400, resulting in a 97% Bargain Rating, and he leads the entire slate in projected Plus/Minus.

Fast Break

Amen Thompson is another strong option for Houston. He’s logged at least 40 minutes in each playoff game, and no one is projected for more than his 42 minutes on Wednesday’s slate. Like Sheppard, he’s another player whose price tag on DraftKings has yet to reflect his increased production, resulting in a 93% Bargain Rating.

Anthony Black is coming off a subpar performance in his last outing, but he posted a positive Plus/Minus in two of his first three playoff contests. He saw at least 22.3 minutes in all three games before slipping to just 18.1 in Game 4. Black is expected to get back to 25 minutes on Wednesday, making him a solid buy-low option. He’s averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he’s reasonably priced at $4,500.

Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

Donovan Mitchell has struggled to get it going in this matchup, but he has a long track record of being an excellent playoff performer. He’s averaged more than 28 points per game for his career, and he’s put together some huge series. Even though his teams haven’t had the most success in the playoffs, it’s hard to put much of the blame on Mitchell’s shoulders.

The Cavaliers suffered two defeats in Toronto, and the series sits at two games apiece heading back to Cleveland. However, the Cavs are 8.5-point favorites in Game 5, and they own the top implied team total on the slate. It seems like a good spot for them to bounce back. Specifically, Mitchell is due for some positive regression after shooting just 6-24 in Game 4.

Ultimately, Mitchell owns the top ceiling projection at shooting guard. He doesn’t have the same ceiling as some of the other top studs on the slate, but that should keep his ownership pretty reasonable.

Value

Tari Eason bounced back from a disappointing Game 3 performance with a huge Game 4, finishing with 45.0 DraftKings points in 30.4 minutes. He did benefit from five steals – which is not going to happen very often – but Eason has historically been an excellent per-minute producer. As long as he’s going to continue to see the floor, he should provide value more often than not.

Eason is projected for another 34 minutes on Wednesday, and his $5,100 price tag comes with a 97% Bargain Rating. Eason has averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.56 in six career games with a comparable salary and minute projection (per the Trends tool), giving him a nice combination of floor and ceiling.

Fast Break

Marcus Smart came back to reality just a smidge in Game 4. After scoring at least 51.0 DraftKings points in his two previous games, he had just 29.0 DraftKings points in 30.6 minutes. That said, that’s still excellent per-minute production. Smart should continue to see all the minutes he can handle if Austin Reaves remains out of the lineup (currently questionable), and he’s capable of producing in every category across the board. He’s averaged 1.20 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so make sure to monitor the injury report for updates. If Reaves is out again, Smart could be poised for a big bounce-back performance.

Duncan Robinson is another potential source of much-needed offense for the Pistons. He’s been quiet so far vs. the Magic, outside of 28.5 DraftKings points in Game 2. Still, he’s played at least 27.8 minutes in three straight games, and he’s capable of getting red-hot from 3-point range. Detroit has the second-highest implied team total on the slate, so getting some exposure to them could be warranted.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with our Sleeper promo code.

 

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

R.J. Barrett is playing some of the best basketball of his career at the moment. He’s been instrumental in the Raptors getting back into their series vs. the Cavaliers. He’s scored at least 34.0 DraftKings points in three straight games, and he’s played at least 38.7 minutes in two straight.

Barrett managed to return value in Game 4 despite shooting just 8-22 from the field and 1-6 from 3-point range. That’s an encouraging sign for his prospects moving forward. If he can deliver value on nights when his shot isn’t falling, he has solid upside on nights when it is. Overall, he leads all small forwards with 10 Pro Trends, and he has the top ceiling projection at a weak position.

Value

Like most of the Cavaliers’ players, Max Strus is coming off an absolute dud in Game 4. Perhaps getting to spend Friday and Saturday night in Toronto before an afternoon game on Sunday was just too much to handle. He failed to knock down a single shot from the field, finishing with just one point and seven rebounds in 20.7 minutes.

The good news is that Strus had at least 28.75 DraftKings points in two of the previous three games. He should get back closer to 26 minutes in Game 5, and he’s averaged 0.84 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s far from the best value option on the slate, but he should be able to return value at just $4,400.

Fast Break

Franz Wagner is officially questionable for the Magic, so it’s possible that he gets the night off on Wednesday. However, he’s an interesting option if he’s able to suit up. Wagner is starting to show signs of the player that he was before suffering the injury that sidelined him for nearly four months during the regular season. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five games, including 38.25 DraftKings points in just 24.2 minutes in Game 4. Wagner had logged at least 31.5 minutes in his previous three outings, so expect him to get closer to that level if he’s in the lineup for Game 5. He’s averaged 1.13 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, while his salary remains slightly reduced at $6,700.

Ausar Thompson doesn’t figure to help the Pistons much offensively, but he’s still capable of having a huge impact in the box score. He had 45.0 DraftKings points in Game 3 before slipping down to 23.75 in Game 4. Overall, he’s averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s logged at least 32 minutes in back-to-back games.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

LeBron James finally showed some signs of age in his last contest. He’s been forced to carry a massive workload for the Lakers with Reaves and Luka Doncic sidelined, and it’s possible that he’s running on fumes at this point. He finished with just 24.5 DraftKings points in 33.2 minutes in Game 4 after scoring at least 50.0 DraftKings points in his first three playoff contests.

That said, there hasn’t been a ton of money made betting against LeBron for his career. There’s a reason this guy is in the GOAT conversation. He’s had a bit of extra rest after playing Game 4 on Sunday, so he could certainly put together another big performance.

If Reaves is out once again, expect the offense to run through James. He’s seen a massive +7.17% bump to his usage rate with Reaves and Doncic off the floor this season (including playoffs), and he’s averaged 1.50 DraftKings points per minute in that split. He owns the top ceiling projection at power forward, and he trails only Cunningham in that department on the entire slate.

Value

Tobias Harris has a track record for coming up small during the playoffs, but he hasn’t been at fault in this series. Specifically, he’s scored at least 20 points in each of the Pistons’ past two losses, so he’s doing his job. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in all four games vs. Orlando, and he’s averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.

Harris is projected for another 35 minutes in Game 5, and he leads all power forwards in projected Plus/Minus. He doesn’t have the greatest ceiling for his price tag, but he’s a good bet to return value once again.

Fast Break

Like James, Rui Hachimura has been asked to carry a huge burden for the shorthanded Lakers. He hasn’t seen the same uptick in usage, but he logged at least 41.5 minutes in each of their three wins over the Rockets. Expect him to get back close to that level if Game 5 is competitive, and Hachimura has averaged 0.80 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He trails only Harris in projected Plus/Minus at power forward, and he’s third in that metric on the entire slate.

Scottie Barnes has turned in three straight solid performances for the Raptors, including a massive 62.25 DraftKings points in Game 3. He’s ultimately averaged 1.23 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and his $8,600 price tag on DraftKings comes with a 93% Bargain Rating. He could be a bit overlooked on this slate.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

The Rockets didn’t need a huge game from Alperen Sengun in Game 4. He finished with just 32.5 DraftKings points in 33 minutes, with the rest of the roster helping pick up the slack. It was a much-needed breather for the big man, who had done everything for the team over the previous two games. Specifically, Sengun saw nearly 47 minutes in the overtime loss in Game 3, and he finished with 70.5 DraftKings points in that contest.

Expect Sengun to have to do a bit more on Wednesday. He remains the team’s most consistent source of offense with Durant out of the picture. He led the team with a 28.6% usage rate sans Durant during the regular season, and he averaged 1.33 DraftKings points per minute in that split.

Value

Collin Murray-Boyles has been a breakout star for the Raptors down the stretch. He has started to eat into Jakob Poeltl’s playing time, and he’s responded with more than 30 DraftKings points in three straight games.

There’s no reason to expect much different in Game 5. Murray-Boyles is projected for 26.5 minutes, and he’s averaged 1.25 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. His price tag has come up to $5,500, but that still stands out as too cheap.

Fast Break

Jarrett Allen’s role has been reduced to start the playoffs, logging less than 30 minutes in all four games vs. the Raptors. That’s caused his price tag to dip to just $5,500 for Game 5, resulting in a 93% Bargain Rating. He has some buy-low appeal at that figure. Allen is still a very capable per-minute producer, so he doesn’t need 30+ minutes to potentially return value. He’s had at least 27.75 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, and that would be enough to pay off his new price tag.

Jalen Duren has been extremely quiet vs. the Magic, which is a bit of a surprise for a player who garnered All-NBA consideration this season. He was dominant in the regular season, but he’s yet to crack 30 DraftKings points in four games vs. Orlando. Still, we know what he is capable of, and perhaps he will snap out of his funk in Game 5. His price tag has come down by nearly -$1,000 since Game 2, making him an interesting contrarian tournament target.

Pictured: Cade Cunningham
Photo Credit: Imagn

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Wednesday features a three-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.

 


Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Become an All-Access Member Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models & projections

NFL, MLB, NBA, and PGA Sims
Become an All-Access Member
 

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

No one expected the Pistons to be facing elimination this early into the playoffs. They dominated the Eastern Conference during the regular season, yet they’re currently down 1-3 against the eighth-seeded Orlando Magic. Every concern that people expressed about their offense has come to fruition, with just three players averaging more than 10 points per game.

If the Pistons are going to dig themselves out of this hole, they’re going to need some big performances from Cade Cunningham. He’s averaged 29.5 points, 7.5 assists, and 6.3 rebounds per game in this series, so he has at least been pretty productive.

Cunningham has the potential for even more moving forward. His shot has betrayed him over the past two games, going a combined 15-46 from the field and 6-21 from 3-point range. He’s had a usage rate of at least 37.6% in both contests, which represents a sizable increase from his 30.5% mark during the regular season.

Expect another expanded usage rate from Cunningham in a must-win game. He could also pick up a few additional minutes, giving him the top ceiling projection at point guard by a wide margin.

Value

The Rockets managed to stave off elimination in Game 4, picking up a win without Kevin Durant. Unfortunately, they’re going to be without KD once again in Game 5, and now the series shifts back to Los Angeles. The Rockets are listed as 4.5-point underdogs, and they’ll need to pick up three straight wins to advance to the second round.

With Durant sidelined, Reed Sheppard has become more important to Houston. They simply need guys who can put the ball in the basket, and Sheppard is one of them. He’s played at least 28.6 minutes in all three playoff games without Durant, and he’s scored more than 30 DraftKings points in each of them.

Sheppard is projected for another 36 minutes on Wednesday, and he’s averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s simply too cheap at $5,400, resulting in a 97% Bargain Rating, and he leads the entire slate in projected Plus/Minus.

Fast Break

Amen Thompson is another strong option for Houston. He’s logged at least 40 minutes in each playoff game, and no one is projected for more than his 42 minutes on Wednesday’s slate. Like Sheppard, he’s another player whose price tag on DraftKings has yet to reflect his increased production, resulting in a 93% Bargain Rating.

Anthony Black is coming off a subpar performance in his last outing, but he posted a positive Plus/Minus in two of his first three playoff contests. He saw at least 22.3 minutes in all three games before slipping to just 18.1 in Game 4. Black is expected to get back to 25 minutes on Wednesday, making him a solid buy-low option. He’s averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he’s reasonably priced at $4,500.

Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

Donovan Mitchell has struggled to get it going in this matchup, but he has a long track record of being an excellent playoff performer. He’s averaged more than 28 points per game for his career, and he’s put together some huge series. Even though his teams haven’t had the most success in the playoffs, it’s hard to put much of the blame on Mitchell’s shoulders.

The Cavaliers suffered two defeats in Toronto, and the series sits at two games apiece heading back to Cleveland. However, the Cavs are 8.5-point favorites in Game 5, and they own the top implied team total on the slate. It seems like a good spot for them to bounce back. Specifically, Mitchell is due for some positive regression after shooting just 6-24 in Game 4.

Ultimately, Mitchell owns the top ceiling projection at shooting guard. He doesn’t have the same ceiling as some of the other top studs on the slate, but that should keep his ownership pretty reasonable.

Value

Tari Eason bounced back from a disappointing Game 3 performance with a huge Game 4, finishing with 45.0 DraftKings points in 30.4 minutes. He did benefit from five steals – which is not going to happen very often – but Eason has historically been an excellent per-minute producer. As long as he’s going to continue to see the floor, he should provide value more often than not.

Eason is projected for another 34 minutes on Wednesday, and his $5,100 price tag comes with a 97% Bargain Rating. Eason has averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.56 in six career games with a comparable salary and minute projection (per the Trends tool), giving him a nice combination of floor and ceiling.

Fast Break

Marcus Smart came back to reality just a smidge in Game 4. After scoring at least 51.0 DraftKings points in his two previous games, he had just 29.0 DraftKings points in 30.6 minutes. That said, that’s still excellent per-minute production. Smart should continue to see all the minutes he can handle if Austin Reaves remains out of the lineup (currently questionable), and he’s capable of producing in every category across the board. He’s averaged 1.20 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so make sure to monitor the injury report for updates. If Reaves is out again, Smart could be poised for a big bounce-back performance.

Duncan Robinson is another potential source of much-needed offense for the Pistons. He’s been quiet so far vs. the Magic, outside of 28.5 DraftKings points in Game 2. Still, he’s played at least 27.8 minutes in three straight games, and he’s capable of getting red-hot from 3-point range. Detroit has the second-highest implied team total on the slate, so getting some exposure to them could be warranted.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with our Sleeper promo code.

 

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

R.J. Barrett is playing some of the best basketball of his career at the moment. He’s been instrumental in the Raptors getting back into their series vs. the Cavaliers. He’s scored at least 34.0 DraftKings points in three straight games, and he’s played at least 38.7 minutes in two straight.

Barrett managed to return value in Game 4 despite shooting just 8-22 from the field and 1-6 from 3-point range. That’s an encouraging sign for his prospects moving forward. If he can deliver value on nights when his shot isn’t falling, he has solid upside on nights when it is. Overall, he leads all small forwards with 10 Pro Trends, and he has the top ceiling projection at a weak position.

Value

Like most of the Cavaliers’ players, Max Strus is coming off an absolute dud in Game 4. Perhaps getting to spend Friday and Saturday night in Toronto before an afternoon game on Sunday was just too much to handle. He failed to knock down a single shot from the field, finishing with just one point and seven rebounds in 20.7 minutes.

The good news is that Strus had at least 28.75 DraftKings points in two of the previous three games. He should get back closer to 26 minutes in Game 5, and he’s averaged 0.84 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s far from the best value option on the slate, but he should be able to return value at just $4,400.

Fast Break

Franz Wagner is officially questionable for the Magic, so it’s possible that he gets the night off on Wednesday. However, he’s an interesting option if he’s able to suit up. Wagner is starting to show signs of the player that he was before suffering the injury that sidelined him for nearly four months during the regular season. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five games, including 38.25 DraftKings points in just 24.2 minutes in Game 4. Wagner had logged at least 31.5 minutes in his previous three outings, so expect him to get closer to that level if he’s in the lineup for Game 5. He’s averaged 1.13 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, while his salary remains slightly reduced at $6,700.

Ausar Thompson doesn’t figure to help the Pistons much offensively, but he’s still capable of having a huge impact in the box score. He had 45.0 DraftKings points in Game 3 before slipping down to 23.75 in Game 4. Overall, he’s averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s logged at least 32 minutes in back-to-back games.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

LeBron James finally showed some signs of age in his last contest. He’s been forced to carry a massive workload for the Lakers with Reaves and Luka Doncic sidelined, and it’s possible that he’s running on fumes at this point. He finished with just 24.5 DraftKings points in 33.2 minutes in Game 4 after scoring at least 50.0 DraftKings points in his first three playoff contests.

That said, there hasn’t been a ton of money made betting against LeBron for his career. There’s a reason this guy is in the GOAT conversation. He’s had a bit of extra rest after playing Game 4 on Sunday, so he could certainly put together another big performance.

If Reaves is out once again, expect the offense to run through James. He’s seen a massive +7.17% bump to his usage rate with Reaves and Doncic off the floor this season (including playoffs), and he’s averaged 1.50 DraftKings points per minute in that split. He owns the top ceiling projection at power forward, and he trails only Cunningham in that department on the entire slate.

Value

Tobias Harris has a track record for coming up small during the playoffs, but he hasn’t been at fault in this series. Specifically, he’s scored at least 20 points in each of the Pistons’ past two losses, so he’s doing his job. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in all four games vs. Orlando, and he’s averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.

Harris is projected for another 35 minutes in Game 5, and he leads all power forwards in projected Plus/Minus. He doesn’t have the greatest ceiling for his price tag, but he’s a good bet to return value once again.

Fast Break

Like James, Rui Hachimura has been asked to carry a huge burden for the shorthanded Lakers. He hasn’t seen the same uptick in usage, but he logged at least 41.5 minutes in each of their three wins over the Rockets. Expect him to get back close to that level if Game 5 is competitive, and Hachimura has averaged 0.80 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He trails only Harris in projected Plus/Minus at power forward, and he’s third in that metric on the entire slate.

Scottie Barnes has turned in three straight solid performances for the Raptors, including a massive 62.25 DraftKings points in Game 3. He’s ultimately averaged 1.23 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and his $8,600 price tag on DraftKings comes with a 93% Bargain Rating. He could be a bit overlooked on this slate.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

The Rockets didn’t need a huge game from Alperen Sengun in Game 4. He finished with just 32.5 DraftKings points in 33 minutes, with the rest of the roster helping pick up the slack. It was a much-needed breather for the big man, who had done everything for the team over the previous two games. Specifically, Sengun saw nearly 47 minutes in the overtime loss in Game 3, and he finished with 70.5 DraftKings points in that contest.

Expect Sengun to have to do a bit more on Wednesday. He remains the team’s most consistent source of offense with Durant out of the picture. He led the team with a 28.6% usage rate sans Durant during the regular season, and he averaged 1.33 DraftKings points per minute in that split.

Value

Collin Murray-Boyles has been a breakout star for the Raptors down the stretch. He has started to eat into Jakob Poeltl’s playing time, and he’s responded with more than 30 DraftKings points in three straight games.

There’s no reason to expect much different in Game 5. Murray-Boyles is projected for 26.5 minutes, and he’s averaged 1.25 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. His price tag has come up to $5,500, but that still stands out as too cheap.

Fast Break

Jarrett Allen’s role has been reduced to start the playoffs, logging less than 30 minutes in all four games vs. the Raptors. That’s caused his price tag to dip to just $5,500 for Game 5, resulting in a 93% Bargain Rating. He has some buy-low appeal at that figure. Allen is still a very capable per-minute producer, so he doesn’t need 30+ minutes to potentially return value. He’s had at least 27.75 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, and that would be enough to pay off his new price tag.

Jalen Duren has been extremely quiet vs. the Magic, which is a bit of a surprise for a player who garnered All-NBA consideration this season. He was dominant in the regular season, but he’s yet to crack 30 DraftKings points in four games vs. Orlando. Still, we know what he is capable of, and perhaps he will snap out of his funk in Game 5. His price tag has come down by nearly -$1,000 since Game 2, making him an interesting contrarian tournament target.

Pictured: Cade Cunningham
Photo Credit: Imagn

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