A lot goes into winning a fantasy football championship, regardless of the format. However, one thing is true in all leagues: nailing the draft is the easiest way to set yourself up for success. In Best Ball leagues, it is literally the only recourse you have for building your roster. You don’t have the waiver wire or trades to help salvage a poor start; if you don’t nail the draft, you are essentially drawing dead.
That makes properly evaluating players extremely important. That’s easier said than done, but fortunately, our new Best Ball tool can help. It compares our expert rankings with each player’s ADP on both Underdog and DraftKings, which can help you identify potential values and traps.
Let’s dive into six players who stand out as either underpriced or overpriced and why they should be on your radar on draft day.
Undervalued
NYG QB Jaxson Dart
- Overall Rank: 90 (QB13)
- Underdog ADP: 101.9
Dart is coming off the board outside the top 12 at the position, which feels like a mistake for a player who dominated right out of the gates as a rookie. Rushing production has always been a cheat code for fantasy quarterbacks, and Dart brings that to the table in spades. In his 12 starts last season, Dart averaged 7.0 carries and 40.6 rushing yards per game. He also found the end zone nine times, which gives him some of the best rushing upside at the entire position.
To put that into perspective, look at how his per-start numbers last season compare to Jalen Hurts’ marks from 2021 through 2024:
- Dart: 7.0 carries, 40.6 yards, 0.75 touchdowns per game
- Hurts: 9.9 carries, 44.8 yards, 0.84 touchdowns per game
Dart isn’t quite Hurts – who also did it over a much larger sample – but it’s pretty darn close. Hurts finished those four seasons as QB6, QB1, QB2, and QB6 in terms of fantasy points per game, so Dart would be an excellent value if he can come anywhere close to those figures.
Of course, Dart still has plenty to prove as a passer. He was pretty average in that respect as a rookie, averaging just 6.9 adjusted yards per attempt with 15 touchdown passes to five interceptions.
The good news is that quarterbacks tend to make their biggest statistical leaps between Years One and Two. We just saw this with Drake Maye, who went from 6.3 adjusted yards per attempt as a rookie to 9.5 last year. Dart could make a similar leap and similarly reward fantasy players like those who believed in Maye heading into last season.
PIT RB Rico Dowdle
- Overall Rank: 70 (RB29)
- Underdog ADP: 87.0
It was a tale of two halves for Dowdle last season. Through the first nine weeks of the season, he was nothing short of one of the best RBs in football. He averaged 5.6 yards per carry, and he ranked in the top four in Success Rate, yards after contact per attempt, and explosive rush percentage. It was enough to overtake Chuba Hubbard in the pecking order and become the Panthers’ lead running back.
Unfortunately, Dowdle ended the year on a down note. From Weeks 10 through 18, his numbers absolutely plummeted. He was worse in every metric across the board, and he dipped all the way to just 3.2 yards per attempt.
Still, Dowdle was able to record his second-straight season with 1,000+ rushing yards overall. He ultimately finished as RB17 for fantasy purposes, despite making just 11 starts.
Dowdle left for Pittsburgh this offseason, and the Steelers rewarded him with a two-year, $12.25M contract. That’s not insignificant money for a running back. He’s going to have to split the workload with the incumbent Jaylen Warren, but Dowdle profiles as the team’s lead option. After the signing, The Athletic’s Mike DeFabo suggested that Warren will occupy the “Kenneth Gainwell” role from last year, which would leave Dowdle to handle the majority of the early-down and goal line situations.
Moving to Pittsburgh also represents an upgrade in terms of supporting cast. The Steelers have a solid offensive line, ranking eighth in Pro Football Focus run blocking grade and ninth in ESPN’s run block win rate. The Steelers’ RBs also had the second-highest target share last season, so even if Warren gets most of the passing work, it should still leave a handful of opportunities for Dowdle.
IND WR Alec Pierce
- Overall Rank: 63 (WR31)
- Underdog ADP: 79.9
Based purely on his contract this offseason, you’d think Pierce should be treated as one of the best receivers in football. He received four years and $114M from the Colts, which is the 11th-most at the position. He’s fifth in terms of guaranteed money ($60M), so the Colts clearly believe that Pierce is a No. 1 option.
With that in mind, it’s pretty surprising that Pierce is barely being drafted as a top 40 receiver. His 79.9 ADP on Underdog makes him just WR38, and he has the potential to deliver serious value at that figure.
Pierce was WR24 last year in terms of 0.5-PPR scoring, and he was WR20 in fantasy points per game. He did that despite Michael Pittman leading the team with 111 targets and the 44-year-old Philip Rivers playing three games at quarterback down the stretch.
Pierce was phenomenal last year from an efficiency standpoint. He led all receivers with 21.3 yards per reception, while only Kayshon Boutte averaged more yards per target. With Pittman now in Pittsburgh, Pierce has the potential to see a big spike in volume next year. While he’ll probably never be a 10+ targets per game type of guy, his big-play potential means he doesn’t need that to deliver value. Particularly for best ball, there is not much downside with Pierce at this price tag, especially with Daniel Jones looking ready for the start of training camp.
Overvalued
NO RB Travis Etienne
- Overall Rank: 47 (RB18)
- Underdog ADP: 35.7
Like with Pierce, Etienne received a contract that made him one of the highest-paid players at his position this offseason. He signed for four years and $48M, which is the third-largest figure at running back. He’s not quite as fortunate in terms of AAV (10th) or guaranteed money (eighth), but it’s still a bunch of money for the Saints’ new running back.
While Etienne is getting paid like a bell-cow, it’s unlikely he has that type of usage in Year One. Alvin Kamara remains in the picture after restructuring his contract, and he’s going to be a major thorn in Etienne’s side on passing downs. That has always been Kamara’s bread and butter, and it’s easy to imagine him having the edge in passing-catching situations.
Running backs that don’t catch a ton of passes are always risky investments in the early rounds. Etienne is coming off the board inside the top 36 picks on Underdog, which means he’ll cost a late-third or early-fourth-round selection. That’s despite playing for an offense that has some question marks. They showed some promise with Tyler Shough down the stretch, but they were still just 28th in points per game last year. Add in an offensive line that was 23rd in Run Block Win Rate, and there are multiple ways for Etienne to fail at his current price tag.
JAX WR Parker Washington
- Overall Rank: 79 (WR37)
- Underdog ADP: 67.1
I am a Washington believer overall. He’s #goodatfootball, and he finally got the opportunity to show what he can do down the stretch last year. He averaged 14.6 PPR points per game from Week 10 on last year, establishing himself as Jacksonville’s No. 1 wide receiver.
While that was nice to see, history suggests it might be an outlier. Historically, wide receivers drafted outside the top two rounds without a track record of previous production have come crashing back to reality the following seasons:
Washington also finds himself in one of the most crowded WR rooms in football. Brian Thomas Jr. had a massively disappointing sophomore season, but he put together a pretty historic campaign as a rookie. He could certainly bounce back in his third year. Jakobi Meyers is also still around, and he led the team in target share after being acquired before the trade deadline.
Travis Hunter is the biggest X-factor. The team took a big swing by trading up to grab him at No. 2 overall in the 2025 NFL Draft, largely due to his two-way potential. His rookie season was not particularly successful – and he’s expected to play more on defense in his second year – but he’s still going to factor into the equation at receiver. Would it shock anyone if he ended up having a breakout?
Washington is still someone I think has potential, but it’s hard to justify taking him as early as he goes in drafts. There are just too many ways for things to go wrong.
GB WR Jayden Reed
- Overall Rank: 103 (WR46)
- Underdog ADP: 84.2
On paper, Reed has the potential for a nice bounce-back campaign in 2026-27. He had strong fantasy campaigns in his first two professional seasons before being limited by injuries last year. With the team losing both Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks this offseason, there’s definitely a path for Reed to see career-highs in both snaps and targets.
That said, it’s not necessarily a guarantee. Christian Watson had a breakout campaign last year, while the team invested a first-round draft pick in Matthew Golden in 2025. The Packers have been hesitant to use Reed in two-receiver sets in previous years, so Reed could play behind both options once again this season.
That wouldn’t be a death sentence for Reed’s fantasy value. After all, he was a top 26 wide receiver in 0.5-PPR scoring in his first two seasons without playing in two-receiver sets. The team uses him similarly to how the 49ers used Deebo Samuel in his prime, so he doesn’t necessarily need a ton of targets to potentially do damage.
Still, it makes projecting too much growth into his role a dicey proposition. He could realistically be the team’s fifth option next season (including Tucker Kraft and Josh Jacobs), which makes him tough to trust inside the top 100 picks. I’d rather bet on Golden, who is coming off the board roughly two full rounds later.
Pictured: Jaxson Dart
Photo Credit: Imagn
