The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud/Value Pick
Nolan McLean (R) $8,800 New York Mets (-131) vs. Miami Marlins
There are six games on the evening/main slate on Thursday, but not a single pitcher with a price tag over $9,000. However, we have some Vegas lines befitting pitchers with a much higher mark, with McLean chief among them.
The Marlins are implied for just 3.4 runs today, and paired with the Mets’ solid moneyline, that’s a pretty good indicator of McLean’s value. Normally, a pitcher with those numbers would be around $10,000, especially if they bring the excellent stats McLean does into the contest. He has a 28.6% strikeout rate and 3.32 ERA through 21 starts this season, averaging just under six innings per appearance.
We have him projected for a median of around 18 DraftKings points, the highest on the slate. He’s cleared that mark in each of his last five starts, with two of those going for 27 or more. The Marlins are a roughly league-average team against right-handed pitching, so there’s no downgrade there, either.
McLean leads all pitchers on the slate in median, ceiling, and Pts/Sal projection, and is pretty clearly the best option on the board in all contest types. At the moment, we have his ownership trailing his opponent’s by a bit as well. I’m not sure that will hold true as we move into the afternoon/evening, but I’d be willing to roster McLean even if he is the most popular starter, so it’s a moot point.
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MLB DFS Tournament Picks
Eury Perez (R) $8,300 Miami Marlins (+110) at New York Mets
The aforementioned McLean opponent is Perez. He has broadly similar stats on the season to McLean, with a 3.56 ERA and 26.6% strikeout rate. He also has a better matchup on paper, with the Mets striking out at a higher rate against righties while hitting at a lower wRC+ – and that’s without factoring in the loss of top hitter Juan Soto. With New York favored (and thus having a higher team total), it makes sense for Perez to project slightly lower than McLean, but it’s reasonably close. There’s no reason we can’t fit both in a lineup, though, as they both stand out over the rest of the field.
Robbie Ray (L) $7,800 San Francisco Giants (+125) at San Diego Padres
My favorite contrarian play tonight is Robbie Ray, who draws an excellent matchup tonight against the Padres. San Diego ranks 27th in wRC+ against lefties, and Ray has a 3.16 ERA on the season. The concern is that Ray’s ERA is much lower than his underlying numbers – all of which are in the mid-fours – making him a negative regression candidate. The sample size is large enough at this point, though, that it’s likely a result of park factors and solid defense behind him. The latter is obviously sticky, while the former is a non-issue tonight. Petco Park in San Diego ranks one spot lower than Oracle Park for hitters, making this a slight upgrade on paper. At roughly 10% ownership, I’ll be mixing Ray in with Perez and McLean for tournaments.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Boston Red Sox:
For the fourth day in a row, the Red Sox have the highest team total on the main slate despite a disappointing offensive performance the previous day. They’re coming off a four-run game last night against the A’s, and they wrap up their series tonight implied for 5.8 runs.
The good news is that Boston stacks have been cheap enough that four runs isn’t a total disaster, though you obviously aren’t taking down any tournaments. I’ve touched on the increasingly appealing pitching matchups Boston has faced throughout the series, though that hasn’t seemed to matter much in their final results. Tonight they’re facing Mason Barnett ($5,500), who is making his first official start of the season but has a 4.74 ERA as a reliever.
Is that the matchup for Boston to finally break out? No clue, but I’m willing to try one more time given their price tag and the fact that they have the best team total on the slate by half of a run. No matter how it works out, at least it’s over after today.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Elly De La Cruz SS ($5,700) Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (Yohan Ramirez)
The Reds are always an interesting team to target at home, since Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati boosts home runs by 18% over the average park. The weather today is effectively neutral, but the park dimensions more than make up for it. What isn’t neutral is the pitching matchup. Take a look at PlateIQ and see what stands out about Yohan Ramirez ($4,000):
His numbers against lefties are awful, which is a problem for the Pirates opener since two of the Reds’ first three hitters will face him from the left side (including the switch-hitting Cruz). Cruz has historically been much better against right-handed pitching anyway, so it’s a double whammy of platoon edge for the Reds’ leadoff man.
Matt Olson 1B ($5,000) Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals (Grant Holmes)
The Braves are the only team besides Boston implied for over five runs tonight, though their hitters at the top are considerably more expensive. For good reason, though, given that they’re facing a right-handed starter, and three of their first four hitters are lefties with elite numbers against right-handed pitching.
That includes Olson, who has an excellent 133 wRC+ overall that jumps a further ten points when facing righties. Unlike other platoon plays, he’s not drawing dead if and when he has to face a left-handed reliever, which helps his case, and we have plenty of available salary to afford him/Braves mini-stacks thanks to the lack of expensive starters tonight.
Brandon Lowe 2B ($5,300) Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds (Rhett Lowder)
Lowe is likely to go overlooked tonight since he’s $2,100 more expensive than Boston’s second baseman, Anthony Siegler. That makes him a great “pay up to be contrarian” option, since his Pirates also get the boost from playing in Cincinnati, and they have a juicy pitching matchup against Rhett Lowder ($6,000).
Lowder has a 5.61 ERA on the season, and his wOBA allowed against lefties is 70 points higher than against righties. The left-handed Lowe has a wOBA 112 points higher against right-handed pitchers. Plus, he’s hit 22 home runs this season despite home games at PNC Park, which reduces homers by 17% compared to the league average. That’s a 35% swing when factoring in the boost in Cincinnati.
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Pictured: Nolan McLean
Photo Credit: Imagn
