The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Cole Ragans (L) $9,200 Kansas City Royals (-160) vs. Minnesota Twins
With just three games to choose from in the afternoon slate, there’s not a ton separating all of the pitching options. That is, with the slight exception of Ragans, the Royals ace who is making his second start of the season. Ragans is looking to improve on his Opening Day performance against the Braves, in which he gave up three home runs (four runs total) over just four innings.
Helping him in that quest is a much easier matchup this time around, as he faces the division-rival Twins. Minnesota isn’t a bad lineup by any stretch, but they’re still a big step down from the dangerous Rays offense. Ragans finished 2025 with a 38.1% K rate and 2.67 xERA, so this could be a good spot for him to return to form.
Strikeouts will be what separates Ragans – or not – from the rest of the pack today. His 7.36 K prediction is well clear of any other pitcher taking the mound this afternoon, giving him a noticeable lead in median and ceiling projection. However, he’s also the most expensive starter by $1,000 and likely to have the highest ownership, making him a more “solid option” than a “must play,” especially in GPPs.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Robbie Ray (L) $8,200 San Francisco Giants (+105) vs. New York Mets
Personally, I prefer the savings – both in terms of salary and ownership – offered by Ray over Ragans this afternoon. The 34-year-old is also taking the mound for the second time in 2026, coming off a 5.1-inning outing in which he allowed just two runs to the Yankees. The Yankees might be the toughest matchup in baseball for lefties (one of the toughest, at worst), so almost any other opponent is considered a step down.
While the Mets are a team we’d normally look to roster pitchers against, on a three-game slate with similar Vegas data in most games, we might not have any better options. Oracle Park in San Francisco is somewhat pitcher-friendly, and the forecast calls for weather that favors pitchers as well.
I don’t expect the 34-year-old Ray to return to his 30%+ strikeout rate from his prime with the Diamondbacks. We probably don’t need a massive score from him (or any pitcher) today. He’s a reasonably safe option who is $1,000 cheaper than Ragans, so as long as he can keep the scoring somewhat close, it will be enough for GPPs.
He and Ragans are also tied for the Pts/Sal lead, making Ray the obvious cash-game starting point with his cheaper salary.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
David Peterson (L) $7,500 New York Mets (-125) at San Francisco Giants
The Mets/Giants game has a total of about two runs lower than the other contests on the slate, making it a fairly obvious option for pitchers. Peterson threw 5.1 scoreless innings in his 2026 debut and now gets to face a Giants team that ranks 29th in wRC+ against lefties since the start of 2025. He’s another somewhat low-upside option, but at his $7,500 price point, we can live with that.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Kansas City Royals:
The Royals’ 5.4-run implied total tonight is almost a full run higher than any other team. We also have plenty of salary to allocate to hitters, since at most we could spend $17,400 on pitchers – and most lineups will be somewhat below that.
That makes them an obvious stack against Twins righty Taj Bradley ($7,700) at home in Kansas City. The weather is good for hitters, and Bradley had an ERA north of 5.00 last season. In his defense, he was a bit unlucky – his ERA indicators were about a run lower – but that makes him a below-average arm at best.
Most of this stack, but in particular the 2–4 hitters, also do their best work against righties, so everything is pointing to the Royals today.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Byron Buxton OF ($5,400) Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals (Cole Ragans)
Rostering Buxton tonight makes sense for a couple of reasons. He’s expensive, but if you’re playing him, it probably means you’re fading Ragans and thus have plenty of available salary. With Ragans projecting for nearly 80% ownership, it’s valuable to roster batters against him if you aren’t playing him, so you benefit on both ends from the offense produced by the Twins.
The other reason is that Buxton historically destroys left-handed pitching, as we can see in his PlateIQ numbers since the start of 2025:
Don’t sleep on lefty Matt Walner ($3,000), either. Most of the field will likely fade him in this lefty-on-lefty pairing, but the numbers suggest that would be a mistake.
Ronald Acuna OF ($5,800) Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks (Ryne Nelson)
Acuna is in the class of hitters who are somewhat difficult to write about. There’s never really a bad time to roster Acuna, the 2023 NL MVP who, when healthy, is one of the most productive hitters in baseball. That 2023 season was the last time he played more than 100 games in a season, and he finished with 41 home runs and 73 steals.
While he’s been running less (even on a per-game basis) since his various lower-body injuries, the power and hitting are still there. The reason he makes sense tonight is simple: it’s not especially difficult to afford him. Plus, he’s the engine of the Braves lineup that is implied for the second-highest total on the slate.
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Pictured: Robbie Ray
Photo Credit: Imagn
