Wild Card Round NFL DFS Showdown: Lineup Optimizer Rules and My Favorite Angle in Chargers-Jaguars

Our Lineup Optimizer is an incredibly powerful tool inside our Player Models, particularly when creating a large number of lineups. However, it’s just that — a tool. We still have to make decisions. Otherwise, everyone would have the same 150 lineups in each contest.

This is intended more as a teaching piece than a step-by-step guide. These rules are suggestions that can show you how to translate your read on this game into lineups.

Additionally, this piece focuses on DraftKings Showdown contests, but similar strategies are useful on FanDuel.

For my general Showdown strategy, you can read my Showdown primer.

My Favorite NFL DFS Angle in Chargers vs. Jaguars Showdown

Brandon Staley looks like a dead man walking as the Chargers enter this game after dropping a meaningless game against the Broncos despite going all out and losing Mike Williams in the process. Despite the pessimism surrounding the organization, there’s no arguing that the passing game is in a great spot heading into Saturday. @Clevta on Twitter excluded games against bottom 5 pass offenses to look at how it affected the Expected Points Added (EPA), and no team was affected more than the Jags dropping from 17 to 31. This is a pass defense that was clearly buoyed by picking on low-level opponents and looks like a spot to attack.

The Chargers are led by Keenan Allen, who has averaged nearly 11 targets per game since returning to a full-time role in Week 12, but what about the other weapons? It’s obviously a small sample, but we have two games this season that the Chargers played with Keenan Allen in and Mike Williams out in Weeks 12 and 13. In those two games de facto WR2 Josh Palmer averaged an impressive nine targets per game with DeAndre Carter coming in at six targets per game. At the time of writing, ownership projections across the industry have yet to update for the Williams news becoming official, but Palmer and Carter both look like excellent options in all formats.

Lineup Optimizer Rules to Consider

General

• Max 3 players vs. opposing Defense
• Minimum 90% Salary

Player Correlations

• Pair Captain Justin Herbert with at least two Chargers pass-catchers
• Pair Captain Trevor Lawrence with at least two Jaguars pass-catchers
• Pair Captain pass-catchers with at most one other pass-catcher from the same team

Player Groups

• Max two kickers and defenses.
• Max 1 Gerald Everett and Donald Parham
• Max 1 Joshua Kelley and Austin Ekeler

Captain Pool (from highest to lowest priority)

Primary Targets

• Travis Etienne
• Keenan Allen

Secondary Targets 

• Austin Ekeler
• Joshua Palmer
• Christian Kirk

Large-Field GPP Fliers

• Justin Herbert
• Zay Jones
• Trevor Lawrence
• Evan Engram
• Deandre Carter