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Week 4 NFL DFS WR Picks Breakdown: Bank on Diontae Johnson’s Volume

In this piece, I highlight wide receivers who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.

As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Top NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks in the FantasyLabs Models

On DraftKings, there are three wide receivers near the top of the Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.

  • Stefon Diggs
  • Diontae Johnson
  • Josh Reynolds

We’ll discuss why these are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other wide receivers.

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Top Model NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks

Stefon Diggs ($8,400 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel): Buffalo Bills (-3) at Baltimore Ravens (51 total)

Stefon Diggs once again finds himself near the top of our models, as he’s had a stellar start to his 2022 campaign. His 14.4-point DraftKings performance in Week 3 was pretty disappointing. However, Diggs’ usage is still incredible. He’s seen 35 targets through three games, racking up 27 catches for 344 yards and four touchdowns.

He gets to face off against Baltimore this week, who has given up the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing WR1s on the year. The matchup is enticing, but this does mark uncharted territory for Diggs. It’s the highest his DraftKings salary has been in three seasons as a Bill.

He’s scored 30+ DraftKings points six times since joining Buffalo, but his role may be even bigger now than it has ever been. Josh Allen has been given the ability to check out of run plays and just flip the ball out to Diggs if he is in a one-on-one matchup.

This Baltimore secondary has given up some monster performances to opposing wide receivers. Since 2021, Diontae Johnson, Ja’Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, Tyreek Hill, and Tee Higgins have all put up 33+ DraftKings points against Baltimore. If Diggs gets the alpha treatment in this offense, which he has as of late, it’s likely he has a monster performance.

He leads our Tournament Model this week on DraftKings.


Diontae Johnson ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel): Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) vs. New York Jets (41.5 total)

Diontae Johnson has been an absolute target hog to start the season, with 33 targets on the year, including 10 or more in each game. This volume isn’t unusual, as Johnson has seen double-digit targets in 16 of his past 20 games including playoffs. He’s yet to eclipse 100 yards yet or reach the endzone this year, but if his usage continues, it’s only a matter of time.

Johnson’s volume gives him a high floor, but his ceiling is dragged down by subpar quarterback play in Mitchell Trubisky and this inefficient offense. This may be the week where all that is rectified, as they face a Jets team that is giving up 9.7 yards per target, the second most in the league.

If Trubisky and the Steelers are able to “get right” against the Jets, then Johnson could be in for a monster game. If they still struggle on offense, we know Johnson will see plenty of volume and likely reach the mid-teens in DraftKings points.

Marrying his volume with the appetizing matchup, it’s not surprising that Johnson leads our Cash Game Model this weekend.


Josh Reynolds ($4,600 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel): Detroit Lions (-3.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks (47.5 total)

Josh Reynolds won’t see a bump in playing time with Amon-Ra St. Brown out, as Reynolds has appeared on 72% or more of the snaps in all three games so far. It is likely that Reynolds sees an uptick in usage. Reynolds saw 10 targets in last week’s game with St. Brown out of the game. D’Andre Swift also got hurt last week, which helped Reynolds’ usage. Swift is missing this week as well, so Reynolds should still be in line for a bunch of work.

Jared Goff has trusted Reynolds since their days with the Rams, and that connection is going to be leaned upon this weekend. The matchup is beatable, as Seattle has allowed the fourth-most yards per target at 9.4 and a league-high 16.2 yards per catch. With Swift and St. Brown out, 40.2% of Detroit’s team targets are up for grabs this week. Reynolds will likely be a beneficiary of the volume up for grabs.

Reynolds’ price is very affordable on both sites, and he comes with a high enough ceiling to make him viable even if his ownership starts to creep up.

He leads both Sean Koerner’s and Chris Raybon’s Pro Models this week.

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Other Notable NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks

Mike Williams ($7,000 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel): Los Angeles Chargers (-6) at Houston Texans (45 total)

The up-and-down extravaganza that is Mike Williams continues this week. Williams put up a combined 11.5 DraftKings points in Week 1 and 3 combined while exploding for 28.3 DraftKings points in Week 2 against Kansas City. It’s tough to put too much weight into Williams’ flop last week, as Justin Herbert was still nursing a rib injury. Herbert is still dealing with the injury this week, but he’s likely improved after another week.

With Keenan Allen set to miss this week’s matchup as well, Williams is likely to see a boatload of work. Since 2020, he has seen 20.7% of the team targets, being targeted on 24.9% of his routes run with Allen off the field. These numbers are up from 15.8% and 18.5% respectively with Allen healthy.

Williams has a monster ceiling, and if Herbert is near full strength, Williams has a solid shot at reaching it.


DK Metcalf ($6,800 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel): Seattle Seahawks (+3.5) at Detroit Lions (47.5 total)

DK Metcalf had struggled to get much going prior to last week. He posted 17.4 DraftKings points, with 64 yards and a touchdown on five catches. He saw 12 targets on the day, meaning the potential for a monster day is there for Metcalf. His average depth of target was 14.1 yards, seeing 40.2% of the team air yards last week. It’s only a matter of time before he erupts.

Metcalf does run the majority of his routes on the perimeter, which has been a tough place to attack Detroit this season. Jeffrey Okudah has taken a big step, and Metcalf will likely see shadow coverage. Tyler Lockett has a better matchup than Metcalf, and he will be one of the higher-owned receivers on the slate.

You all know what I’m going to say. Bet. On. Talent.

Metcalf is an extremely talented player with a massive ceiling, and he provides some nice leverage off of Lockett in tournaments.

DJ Moore ($5,300 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel): Carolina Panthers (-2) vs. Arizona Cardinals (43.5 total)

It’s been an uninspiring start to the season for DJ Moore, with six targets in all three games. He’s totaled seven catches for 88 yards and one touchdown on the year. That’s a pretty solid stat line for one game, but in a three-game stretch? Yuck. Hopefully, the tides will turn in Carolina, and Moore will see an uptick in volume and efficiency. We know he’s a talented player, and hopefully, it’s only a matter of time. He’s running a route on 100% of team dropbacks, so it’s only a matter of time.

Arizona has been solid against opposing receivers, allowing a 64.1% catch rate to opposing receivers. Davante Adams and Cooper Kupp combined for 56 yards and a touchdown on six catches. The matchup may seem difficult, but Moore is a super talented player at a cheap price.


Romeo Doubs ($4,500 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel): Green Bay Packers (-9.5) vs. New England Patriots (40 total)

Green Bay’s preseason darling has started to shine, parlaying eight targets into 73 yards and a touchdown last week against Tampa Bay, en route to 21.3 DraftKings points. He ran a route on 94.4% of team dropbacks, up from 58.1% and 44.8% in Weeks 1 and 2. Doubs benefitted from Christian Watson and Sammy Watkins missing last week’s contest. Watson will return this week, but Watkins will once again miss.

Watson may cut into Doubs’ role a little bit, but we still should see a hefty amount of routes run by Doubs. He’s a cheap price, and he has a much better matchup this week against New England than he did last week against Tampa Bay. Doubs makes a lot of sense in all formats this week.

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In this piece, I highlight wide receivers who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.

As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Top NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks in the FantasyLabs Models

On DraftKings, there are three wide receivers near the top of the Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.

  • Stefon Diggs
  • Diontae Johnson
  • Josh Reynolds

We’ll discuss why these are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other wide receivers.

Start Your PRO Trial Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models & projections

Data-driven analysis & tutorials

Top Model NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks

Stefon Diggs ($8,400 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel): Buffalo Bills (-3) at Baltimore Ravens (51 total)

Stefon Diggs once again finds himself near the top of our models, as he’s had a stellar start to his 2022 campaign. His 14.4-point DraftKings performance in Week 3 was pretty disappointing. However, Diggs’ usage is still incredible. He’s seen 35 targets through three games, racking up 27 catches for 344 yards and four touchdowns.

He gets to face off against Baltimore this week, who has given up the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing WR1s on the year. The matchup is enticing, but this does mark uncharted territory for Diggs. It’s the highest his DraftKings salary has been in three seasons as a Bill.

He’s scored 30+ DraftKings points six times since joining Buffalo, but his role may be even bigger now than it has ever been. Josh Allen has been given the ability to check out of run plays and just flip the ball out to Diggs if he is in a one-on-one matchup.

This Baltimore secondary has given up some monster performances to opposing wide receivers. Since 2021, Diontae Johnson, Ja’Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, Tyreek Hill, and Tee Higgins have all put up 33+ DraftKings points against Baltimore. If Diggs gets the alpha treatment in this offense, which he has as of late, it’s likely he has a monster performance.

He leads our Tournament Model this week on DraftKings.


Diontae Johnson ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel): Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) vs. New York Jets (41.5 total)

Diontae Johnson has been an absolute target hog to start the season, with 33 targets on the year, including 10 or more in each game. This volume isn’t unusual, as Johnson has seen double-digit targets in 16 of his past 20 games including playoffs. He’s yet to eclipse 100 yards yet or reach the endzone this year, but if his usage continues, it’s only a matter of time.

Johnson’s volume gives him a high floor, but his ceiling is dragged down by subpar quarterback play in Mitchell Trubisky and this inefficient offense. This may be the week where all that is rectified, as they face a Jets team that is giving up 9.7 yards per target, the second most in the league.

If Trubisky and the Steelers are able to “get right” against the Jets, then Johnson could be in for a monster game. If they still struggle on offense, we know Johnson will see plenty of volume and likely reach the mid-teens in DraftKings points.

Marrying his volume with the appetizing matchup, it’s not surprising that Johnson leads our Cash Game Model this weekend.


Josh Reynolds ($4,600 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel): Detroit Lions (-3.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks (47.5 total)

Josh Reynolds won’t see a bump in playing time with Amon-Ra St. Brown out, as Reynolds has appeared on 72% or more of the snaps in all three games so far. It is likely that Reynolds sees an uptick in usage. Reynolds saw 10 targets in last week’s game with St. Brown out of the game. D’Andre Swift also got hurt last week, which helped Reynolds’ usage. Swift is missing this week as well, so Reynolds should still be in line for a bunch of work.

Jared Goff has trusted Reynolds since their days with the Rams, and that connection is going to be leaned upon this weekend. The matchup is beatable, as Seattle has allowed the fourth-most yards per target at 9.4 and a league-high 16.2 yards per catch. With Swift and St. Brown out, 40.2% of Detroit’s team targets are up for grabs this week. Reynolds will likely be a beneficiary of the volume up for grabs.

Reynolds’ price is very affordable on both sites, and he comes with a high enough ceiling to make him viable even if his ownership starts to creep up.

He leads both Sean Koerner’s and Chris Raybon’s Pro Models this week.

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Other Notable NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks

Mike Williams ($7,000 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel): Los Angeles Chargers (-6) at Houston Texans (45 total)

The up-and-down extravaganza that is Mike Williams continues this week. Williams put up a combined 11.5 DraftKings points in Week 1 and 3 combined while exploding for 28.3 DraftKings points in Week 2 against Kansas City. It’s tough to put too much weight into Williams’ flop last week, as Justin Herbert was still nursing a rib injury. Herbert is still dealing with the injury this week, but he’s likely improved after another week.

With Keenan Allen set to miss this week’s matchup as well, Williams is likely to see a boatload of work. Since 2020, he has seen 20.7% of the team targets, being targeted on 24.9% of his routes run with Allen off the field. These numbers are up from 15.8% and 18.5% respectively with Allen healthy.

Williams has a monster ceiling, and if Herbert is near full strength, Williams has a solid shot at reaching it.


DK Metcalf ($6,800 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel): Seattle Seahawks (+3.5) at Detroit Lions (47.5 total)

DK Metcalf had struggled to get much going prior to last week. He posted 17.4 DraftKings points, with 64 yards and a touchdown on five catches. He saw 12 targets on the day, meaning the potential for a monster day is there for Metcalf. His average depth of target was 14.1 yards, seeing 40.2% of the team air yards last week. It’s only a matter of time before he erupts.

Metcalf does run the majority of his routes on the perimeter, which has been a tough place to attack Detroit this season. Jeffrey Okudah has taken a big step, and Metcalf will likely see shadow coverage. Tyler Lockett has a better matchup than Metcalf, and he will be one of the higher-owned receivers on the slate.

You all know what I’m going to say. Bet. On. Talent.

Metcalf is an extremely talented player with a massive ceiling, and he provides some nice leverage off of Lockett in tournaments.

DJ Moore ($5,300 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel): Carolina Panthers (-2) vs. Arizona Cardinals (43.5 total)

It’s been an uninspiring start to the season for DJ Moore, with six targets in all three games. He’s totaled seven catches for 88 yards and one touchdown on the year. That’s a pretty solid stat line for one game, but in a three-game stretch? Yuck. Hopefully, the tides will turn in Carolina, and Moore will see an uptick in volume and efficiency. We know he’s a talented player, and hopefully, it’s only a matter of time. He’s running a route on 100% of team dropbacks, so it’s only a matter of time.

Arizona has been solid against opposing receivers, allowing a 64.1% catch rate to opposing receivers. Davante Adams and Cooper Kupp combined for 56 yards and a touchdown on six catches. The matchup may seem difficult, but Moore is a super talented player at a cheap price.


Romeo Doubs ($4,500 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel): Green Bay Packers (-9.5) vs. New England Patriots (40 total)

Green Bay’s preseason darling has started to shine, parlaying eight targets into 73 yards and a touchdown last week against Tampa Bay, en route to 21.3 DraftKings points. He ran a route on 94.4% of team dropbacks, up from 58.1% and 44.8% in Weeks 1 and 2. Doubs benefitted from Christian Watson and Sammy Watkins missing last week’s contest. Watson will return this week, but Watkins will once again miss.

Watson may cut into Doubs’ role a little bit, but we still should see a hefty amount of routes run by Doubs. He’s a cheap price, and he has a much better matchup this week against New England than he did last week against Tampa Bay. Doubs makes a lot of sense in all formats this week.

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