The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for Week 14.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Josh Allen vs New York Jets – $8,300 on DraftKings, $8,700 on FanDuel
Josh Allen projects for the highest ceiling on the week in what looks to be a less-than-ideal matchup against the New York Jets, who rank fifth in DVOA (per Football Outsiders).
The Bills are a massive 10-point favorite in a matchup with a 43-point total, one of the lowest on the slate. However, Allen has dual-threat ability and the weapons to support a hyper-effective offense. The Bills remain one of the more pass-happy teams in the league, using a 60%/40% pass-to-run play-calling ratio (per RotoViz), relying on the big arm of Allen. The superstar quarterback should continue to have a dominant season, averaging 283.8 passing yards per game and a 64.1% completion rate. In a 24-10 win over the New York Patriots in Week 13, Allen passed for 223 yards and two touchdowns, also rushing for 20 yards on eight attempts.
Even with the expensive price tag–the most of any quarterback on both sites– Allen can reach an 85th-percentile outcome through the air and in his rushing ability and should likely be paired with Stefon Diggs or New York Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson as a bring back.
THE BLITZ, Jalen Hurts projects for the highest ceiling in a home matchup with the New York Giants. On paper, the Giants look to be a more ideal matchup for the Eagles quarterback, who is in the midst of a breakout campaign. The Giants ranks 28th in DVOA and should not prevent Hurts from reaching an 85th-percentile outcome. Like Allen, look for Hurts to be a dual-threat option in the Eagles offense, averaging 245 passing yards per game and 4.61 yards per carry.
A seven-point favorite on the road, look for the Eagles to keep the foot on the gas, averaging 26.1 seconds per snap. Further, Hurts looks to be a pivot to Allen, currently coming in at lower ownership and a $200 discount on DraftKings. In a 35-10 rout of the Tennessee Titans, Hurts passed for 380 yards and three touchdowns, also rushing for 12 yards and one touchdown. Should the video-game-like numbers continue, Hurts warrants a second look as a cornerstone in rosters.
Top Value: Kirk Cousins at Detroit Lions – $6,100 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel
Kirk Cousins projects as a top value option on DraftKings, leading a Vikings offense in a road matchup against the Detroit Lions, who is one of the weaker defenses in the league.
In 12 games this season, Cousins is averaging 244.4 passing yards per game and a 64.6% completion rate and has thrown for more than 200 yards in nine games. In a 27-22 win over the New York Jets in Week 13, one of the more difficult defenses in the league, Cousins threw for 173 yards and one touchdown and looks to have an easier matchup on paper, especially playing in the dome of Ford Field, with a 51.5-point total, which is one of the highest on the slate.
According to PFF, the Lions rank 27th in overall defense. Cousins is a solid option that should unlock higher-priced skill position players, given his discounted salary on DraftKings, especially one member of the Vikings receiving corps in wide receiver Justin Jefferson, who is priced at a sky-high $9,000 on DraftKings.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Derrick Henry vs. Jacksonville Jaguars – $7,900 on DraftKings, $9,000 on FanDuel
Derrick Henry projects for the highest ceiling among running backs this week, facing a Jaguars defense ranked 13th in rushing DVOA — a more difficult matchup than expected with a low total.
Henry remains a key playmaker for the Titans offense, averaging 21.5 carries per game and 4.18 yards per carry, also seeing 2.4 targets per game and 12.4 yards per reception. Tennessee is a four-point home favorite and should depend on the elite running back to seal the game in an AFC South matchup, especially seeing a 74% market share of carries.
In a Week 13 35-10 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, Henry rushed for 30 yards on 11 attempts and was targeted three times, catching two passes for eight yards. Despite a less-than-desired matchup, Henry can certainly reach an 85th-percentile outcome in what could be a bounce-back spot and should be popular this week for rosters.
Top Value: Dalvin Cook at Minnesota Vikings – $7,300 on DraftKings, $8,700 on FanDuel
Despite a high price tag, Dalvin Cook again projects as a top value in a matchup with NFC North rivals Detroit Lions, who rank 25th in rushing DVOA.
Cook is far and away the lead back in the Vikings offense, responsible for 69% of the rushing share, averaging 16.5 rushing attempts per game and 4.68 yards per carry. With 3.5 targets per game, Cook also factors into the Vikings’ passing game, despite a receiving corps featuring Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen. In a 27-22 win over the New York Jets in Week 13, Cook rushed for 86 yards and one touchdown on 20 attempts, also catching two passes. With guaranteed volume in what looks to be a close game, Cook immediately becomes a fantasy-viable option. He’s an intriguing one-off play in tournaments and a great pivot off of Henry, coming in at around half the projected ownership.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Justin Jefferson at Detroit Lions – $9,000 on DraftKings, $9,000 on FanDuel
Justin Jefferson projects for the highest ceiling among wide receivers in Week 14 against the Detroit Lions, who rank 17th in pass DVOA.
A decent matchup on paper for the hyper-elite wideout, Jefferson has a 29% target share and is the preferred option for quarterback Kirk Cousins, averaging 10.6 targets per game and 14.5 yards per reception. Further, look for Jefferson to be a prime candidate for the 100-yard receiving bonus, reaching the mark in seven of the Vikings’ 12 games this season. In the 33-26 win over the New England Patriots in Week 13, Jefferson was targeted 11 times, catching nine passes for 139 yards and one touchdown.
Aside from the volume, Jefferson is the dangerous target in the red zone, seeing 21 red zone targets so far this season, per AddMoreFunds, only behind Stefon Diggs and Travis Kelce, who lead the league. In a matchup with shootout potential, look to target Jefferson either in a stack with Cousins or as a bring-back with Detroit Lions skill players, especially Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Top Value: Garrett Wilson at Buffalo Bills – $5,900 on DraftKings, $7,200 on FanDuel
Garrett Wilson projects as a top-value option this week at wide receiver after another smash performance against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 12.
Wilson is the leader in market share in the Jets’ receiving corps, responsible for a 23% target share, and the rookie wideout looks to be a preferred option for quarterback Mike White, who targeted the rookie wideout 15 times, catching eight passes for 162 yards in a 27-22 loss.
To add, if the passing volume should continue for Wilson, his digestible salary on DraftKings makes him a fantasy-viable option, complete with touchdown upside, despite facing a Buffalo Bills defense ranked seventh in pass DVOA.
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Travis Kelce vs. Denver Broncos – $7,600 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel
Expect tight end Travis Kelce continues to be one of the more matchup-proof skill players in the league. Kelce projects for the highest ceiling among tight ends, facing a Broncos defense ranked fourth in pass DVOA — another difficult matchup for an elite receiver.
Kelce should continue to be the first-look option for quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who is responsible for a team-leading 24% target share. Kelce is averaging 12.5 yards per reception and 9.3 targets per game this season. Of course, Kelce is also a prime candidate for the 100-yard receiving bonus on DraftKings. He is in the ballpark (90+ receiving yards) in six of the Chiefs’ first 12 games and should also be considered for his touchdown upside, recording at least one touchdown in seven games.
The Cheifs stack is a very expensive one, but consistency and touchdown upside looks to be the main benefit in a high-total matchup and is worthy of a second look, coming at projected lower ownership for the position.
Top Value: Austin Hooper vs. Jacksonville Jaguars – $2,900 on DraftKings, $4,900 on FanDuel
Austin Hooper projects as a top value at tight end given his discounted salary on DraftKings. Hooper has a modest 13% target share, averaging 3.2 targets per game. In a 35-10 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, Hooper was targeted five times, catching three passes for 22 yards. And although the touchdown upside might not be there, the passing volume adds to his upside, further enhancing his fantasy relevance.
With a discounted salary on DraftKings, look for Hooper to be a consistent option at tight end and could even be paired with the Jaguars’ skill players like Zay Jones and Travis Etienne Jr. as a bring back-option.
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