In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
Top NFL DFS Quarterback Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are three quarterbacks near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Joe Burrow
- Geno Smith
- Baker Mayfield
We’ll discuss why these three are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other quarterbacks.
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Top Model NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Joe Burrow ($6,800 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel): Cincinnati Bengals (-7) vs. Houston Texans (48 total)
After a borderline disastrous first four weeks, the Bengals have rattled off four wins in a row, and Joe Burrow has topped 25 DraftKings points in three of his last four games. The most impressive of which came against San Francisco, where he threw three touchdowns against one of the top defenses in the league on the road.
This Texans defense has given up a lot of yards to opposing quarterbacks, but they’ve kept them out of the end zone. They’re likely due for negative regression in the touchdown department, and Burrow is ripe to take advantage of it.
This appears to be one of the weaker quarterback slates, and Burrow is one of the few guys with massive upside. He’s the top option in our Cash Game Model.
Geno Smith ($5,800 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel): Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) vs. Washington Commanders (45.5 total)
It’s been mostly mediocrity for Geno Smith as of late, averaging 12.28 DraftKings points per game over his last five games. The latest of which was the roughest, where he completed 46% of his passes en route to 4.68 DraftKings points against the stout Baltimore defense.
Smoother seas lie ahead with the Commanders coming to town, who have allowed the third-most DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks on the year and have recently lost Montez Sweat and Chase Young.
Pressure has been Smith’s kryptonite, but Washington ranks 22nd in pressure rate. He hasn’t flashed much of a ceiling, with just one game above 17 DraftKings points.
However, this is about as good a spot as any, and Smith is the top option in Chris Raybon’s Pro Model and our Tournament Model.
Baker Mayfield ($5,100 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel): Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1) vs. Tennessee Titans (38.5 total)
Baker Mayfield only attempted 30 passes last week but was efficient with his reps, averaging 8.8 yards per attempt and finding paydirt twice, totaling 19 DraftKings points.
Mayfield has consistently posted solid scores for a cheap tag, with more than 17 DraftKings points in four of his last five games and over 20 in two.
He now gets a matchup with a pass-funnel Tennessee defense that’s allowing the sixth-highest completion rate and yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks. No quarterback has thrown multiple touchdowns against them since Week 3, which puts somewhat of a cap on Mayfield’s ceiling.
However, Mayfield’s price is cheap, and the air is the path of least resistance against the Titans. He’s the top option in Sean Koerner’s Pro Model.
Other Notable NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Lamar Jackson ($8,000 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel): Baltimore Ravens (-6) vs. Cleveland Browns (38.5 total)
Lamar Jackson is one of the most interesting quarterback options on the slate. He undoubtedly possesses the highest ceiling, but he gets a very tough matchup against the Browns, who have allowed the second-fewest DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks. However, Jackson posted 29.14 DraftKings points against this Cleveland defense in Week 4, throwing for two touchdowns and running for two more.
Second divisional matchups are usually lower scoring, and this Browns’ defense now has a game of film against Jackson. I’m personally still interested in Jackson due to the tremendous ceiling, but he’s not my favorite option on the weekend.
Dak Prescott ($6,700 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel): Dallas Cowboys (-16.5) vs. New York Giants (38.5 total)
Dak Prescott was my favorite quarterback on last week’s slate, and he didn’t disappoint. He threw for 374 yards and three touchdowns and was on the cusp of more with a 4th and goal turnover, failed two-point conversion, and almost scoring on the last play of the game. This week should be smooth sailing against the Giants, as Dallas is favored by over two touchdowns. The sky-high ceiling is likely off the table, but Dallas should score a lot of points, and hopefully, it comes through the air.
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My Favorite NFL DFS Quarterback Leverage Pick(s)
Trevor Lawrence ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel): Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) vs. San Francisco 49ers (46 total)
We haven’t seen too much ceiling from Trevor Lawrence this year, as he’s reached 20 DraftKings points in just one contest. However, there hasn’t really been a single back-and-forth game for Jacksonville, as they’ve pretty much cruised to victories as of late.
Lawrence has also run poorly in the touchdown department, with multiple touchdowns in just two games, and Travis Etienne Jr. finding paydirt on the ground six times in the past four weeks.
San Francisco is fresh off a bye and should be able to move the ball against this Jacksonville defense. The Jaguars are also coming off of a bye and have had more than enough time to scout this San Francisco unit. I’m expecting a lot of points here, and I think Lawrence has a 30+ point ceiling in a back-and-forth affair. Hopefully, the touchdowns start to break his way this weekend.