In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
Top NFL DFS Quarterback Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are two quarterbacks near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Josh Allen
- Jalen Hurts
We’ll discuss why these three are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other quarterbacks.
Top Model NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Josh Allen ($8,200 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel): Buffalo Bills (-5.5) at Miami Dolphins (53 total)
Josh Allen has been scorching hot to kick off the 2022 season, with eight total touchdowns through two weeks, averaging 33.1 DraftKings points per game. Allen didn’t have to use his legs against Tennessee as much as he did against Los Angeles, only running one time for 10 yards, as opposed to 10 times for 56 yards the prior week.
Allen has topped 30 DraftKings points in both games this year despite them being rather lopsided affairs. We’re all in for a treat when we find a team that can keep up with Buffalo’s might. Could this week be the week?
The Bills rank first in pass rate over expectation so far this year, while Miami isn’t far behind in third. The Dolphins have also given up the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this year, as Lamar Jackson wreaked havoc through the air and on the ground against them last week en route to 48.62 DraftKings points.
Allen is more than capable of using his legs and arm to terrorize defenses, and in a big division matchup between 2-0 foes, the Bills won’t take their foot off the gas in this one. He’s faced off with Buffalo four times since Josh Boyer has taken over as defensive coordinator. Allen has put up performances of QB1, QB19, QB13, and QB3 against Boyer’s defenses in Miami.
Allen leads Sean Koerner’s Pro Model and our Cash Game Model for this weekend.
Jalen Hurts ($7,600 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel): Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) at Washington Commanders (47 total)
The Eagles are riding high after their Week 2 stomping of the Minnesota Vikings, in which Jalen Hurts racked up 390 total yards en route to 37.02 DraftKings points. Hurts has been an absolute weapon on the ground to start the year, running 28 times for 147 yards and three scores through two weeks. He now faces a Washington unit that he’s torched in the past and has been getting torched to start the season.
In Hurts’ two starts against Washington last year, he completed 71% of his passes for 510 yards and ran 15 times for 82 yards and two touchdowns. Hurts has an upgraded supporting cast this year and is looking like an entirely different player through two weeks. Trevor Lawrence put up 275 yards and a score against Washington in Week 1, and then gunslinger Jared Goff came in and dropped four touchdowns on Washington last week.
Hurts can beat opposing defenses in multiple facets, but this week it appears as if he can do whatever he wants. Washington’s offense has been formidable this year, which could potentially give us a back-and-forth affair.
Hurts leads Chris Raybon’s Pro Model, as well as our Tournament Model on DraftKings.
Other Notable NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Lamar Jackson ($8,000 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel): Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) at New England Patriots (44 total)
This isn’t the New England Patriots defense of old that we’re used to, as they gave up 27+ DraftKings points five times in 2021. In Lamar Jackson’s two matchups with Bill Belichick’s defense, he posted QB6 and QB5 scores each week. Jackson is coming off of an absolute monster performance, as he nearly dropped 50 DraftKings points last week in Baltimore’s loss to Miami. The Ravens like to attack down the field, which is going to be a big change for New England coming off matchups against low aDOT throwers in Mitch Trubisky and Tua Tagovailoa.
Jackson always boasts one of the highest ceilings each week, and he appears to be a full-go on Sunday despite appearing on the injury report with an elbow injury.
He appears to be getting overlooked by the industry, making Jackson an amazing tournament play.
Patrick Mahomes ($7,900 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel): Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) at Indianapolis Colts (50.5 total)
The Colts have been getting ravaged this year, giving up 475 yards and four touchdowns through two games to Trevor Lawrence and Davis Mills en route to an 0-2 start. In practically a must-win game, they face off against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. For Mahomes, he gets to tee off against a familiar face on the Colts’ side. Gus Bradley is coordinating this Colts defense and running his signature single-high safety scheme.
Mahomes demolished the Raiders twice last year, scoring a combined 89 points in the two matchups. Without Tyreek Hill there is less potential for Kansas City to stretch the field, but I’m sure they’ll be fine. As usual, we’re going to bet on talent.
With guys like Allen and Hurts soaking up ownership, we may get Mahomes at fairly low ownership.
Joe Burrow ($6,600 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel): Cincinnati Bengals (-6) at New York Jets (45 total)
Joe Burrow and the Bengals are falling into the “Super Bowl Loser Slumo” stereotype to a tee. They’ve dropped two games to start the year as touchdown favorites and now sit as six-point favorites against the New York Jets (The Jets!). Just as the public is “selling” Burrow and the Bengals at their lowest, I’m ready to buy in. The Jets were a consistent defense that people attacked in daily fantasy last year, and now Burrow appears to be getting overlooked in a must-win game for Cincinnati.
Burrow showed his massive ceiling on multiple occasions last year, carving up defenses far superior to this Jets group. Burrow takes a lot of sacks, and his offensive line has struggled through two weeks. However, the Steelers (with Watt) and the Cowboys possess two of the most lethal pass-rushing units in the league. The Jets have some nice personnel on the defensive line, but their pass rush is nowhere close to those other two teams.
This is a prime “get-right” spot for Burrow and the Bengals, and he’ll be low-owned in tournaments.