UFC Abu Dhabi DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Ankalaev vs. Guskov, More Saturday Fights

The UFC makes its annual trip to Abu Dhabi this week, with a 13-fight card packed with the usual selection of heavily favored local fighters. In the main event, we have former champion Magomed Ankalaev taking on Bogdan Guskov, who steps in on short notice for Khalil Rountree Jr.

We have a special 9:00 a.m. ET start time for this one, so be sure to get your lineups early. Also, keep an eye out for some overlay opportunities, which could be plentiful thanks to the unusual start time.

We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.

The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:

• Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
• Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
• Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in tournaments, for example.

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.

Main Event

Magomed Ankalaev ($9,500) vs. Bogdan Guskov ($6,700)

There’s a strong argument that Ankalaev is the best light heavyweight in the world. After losing his UFC debut, he won 12 straight bouts (with a draw and a no-contest thrown in) to claim the light heavyweight belt from Alex Pereira, who then defeated him to win it back before departing for heavyweight. This will be his first fight following that loss, and it was supposed to come against another top contender in Rountree, but now it is relatively meaningless for Ankalaev’s title push.

That is, unless he loses to Guskov, who comes into this fight following a majority draw against 42-year-old Jan Blachowicz in his last fight. That fight was a good summation of the Guskov experience: a fast, aggressive start before nearly getting finished late when he ran out of gas.

That dynamic makes this five-round fight especially concerning. Ankalaev has five-round experience and has been preparing for the “championship rounds.” Guskov was originally set to rematch Blachowicz in a three-round affair next week. Guskov has an outside shot of a quick win here, but Ankalaev is very strong defensively, so it’s fairly unlikely. From there, Ankalaev should take over.

That makes this a tough DFS fight, as Ankalaev is only a couple hundred dollars short of two fighters favored to win in the first round. It’s hard to see a similar ceiling from “Big Ank” here, even though he’s a fairly safe option as more than a -500 favorite. I’m planning on fading this fight entirely in cash games, with some mild exposure to both fighters in GPPs.

The Easy Chalk

Islam Dulatov ($9,800)

The first of those fighters favored to win in Round 1 is Islam Dulatov, a 12-1 Dagestan-born German-trained welterweight. Both his Contender Series bout and his UFC debut ended in first-round knockouts, and he’s -200 to get another first-round win this weekend.

He’s being given a setup fight against Wellington Turman ($6,400), who has lost three straight fights and hasn’t competed since December of 2023. Before this fight was booked, I was fairly sure Turman was no longer with the promotion and possibly retired, but he’s been brought back in an effort to add to the highlight reel of a fighter with local interest.

Outside of his massive first-round upside, Dulatov is also -1000 on the moneyline, making him extremely safe. It’s pretty hard to afford both of the top fighters without taking some thin value plays, so I’m not sure which one will carry the bulk of the ownership — of course, it could also be an even split. Regardless, Dulatov is an excellent play if you can find the salary.

Magomed Tuchalov ($9,700)

The other obvious top play is UFC newcomer Magomed Tuchalov, who is 6-0 as a pro with six finishes, none going beyond the second round. His most recent win came against UFC veteran Caio Machado, whom he finished in less than two minutes in March. He’s facing Brendson Riberio ($6,500), who defeated Machado by split decision in one of the victories on his 2-5 UFC record.

Riberio has since been finished in the first round in three consecutive bouts. Tuchalov is -150 to make it four in a row, and -800 to win in general. While his first-round stoppage odds are slightly worse than Dulatov’s, the difference works out to less than 7% implied odds, which isn’t especially significant.

It’s tricky, but possible, to fit both top fighters in a single lineup, which will be my plan for cash games. For GPPs, I’ll be prioritizing pairing one of Tuchalov/Dulatov and one of the slightly cheaper fighters with similar upside we’ll be discussing in the next section, since Tuchalov and Dulatov are likely to be much higher owned.

The Upside Plays

Sam Patterson ($9,400)

The first of the two “second-tier” fighters I’m interested in for tournaments is Sam Patterson. In a rare bout with no fighters of regional interest, the British Patterson takes on Argentinian veteran Santiago Ponzinibbio ($6,800), who will be competing in his 40th professional bout and 21st UFC fight this weekend.

Ponzinibbio turns 40 in September, and until this fight had been given a string of age-appropriate contests, with his last three fights coming against fighters who are all 39 or older. He went 1-2 in those matchups, recently getting knocked out by Daniel Rodriguez, and is now being fed to an up-and-coming prospect in Patterson.

The 30-year-old Patterson is 4-2 in the UFC, losing his most recent fight in a staring contest against his former training partner Michael Page to snap a four-fight winning streak, all of which came in the first round. He’s a huge welterweight with plenty of power but also an excellent grappler when he needs it, giving him a solid mix of finishing upside no matter where this fight takes place.

The dream scenario for DFS is a few early takedowns followed by a knockout victory, but any early finish likely sees him keep pace with Dulatov and Tuchalov. He’s +140 to win in the first round, but he’s a few hundred dollars cheaper and likely to have roughly half the ownership of the top plays, making him an elite GPP option.

Abdul Hussein ($9,300)

My least confident top play is Abdul Hussein, a UFC newcomer who seems to be getting a squash match for his debut. He’s facing Cody Gibson ($6,900), a 38-year-old bantamweight with a 3-7 UFC record across two stints, who has been finished in each of his last two fights.

Hussein is 10 years younger and hasn’t lost a fight since 2021, when he was defeated by Muhammad Mokaev before the latter made his way to the UFC. Since then, he’s picked up eight straight finishes, including a knockout victory over UFC veteran Tyson Nam last December. Overall, he has a fairly even mix of knockouts and submissions, which is a good sign for his overall upside.

Hussein is more than a -500 overall favorite with +175 first round odds. He could even have some upside in an extended fight due to lighter weight class fights tending to have more overall activity than the bigger fighters that will be more popular. Like Patterson, he’ll be in my GPP player pool as a slightly contrarian option.

The Value Play

Said Izagakhmaev ($7,300)

Izagakhmaev is 0-1 in the UFC, following a split decision loss to Nicolas Dalby in which Izagakhmaev had early success but tired down the stretch. Personally, I’m not downgrading him much for that performance. Dalby is one of the most underrated UFC fighters of the past decade, who is known for his excellent cardio and ability to build down the stretch.

The fact that Izagakhmaev landed four takedowns and 5+ minutes of control time was also a good sign, leading to him scoring in the mid-40s on DraftKings. That was hugely disappointing when he was $9,300, but would be more than acceptable at his $7,300 price tag against UFC newcomer Abubakar Vagaev ($8,900).

Vagaev is 24-4 as a pro but has largely fought in less-prestigious regional promotions, though he holds wins over UFC veterans Michel Pereira and Albert Tuemnov in that span. Still, I’m somewhat wary of a 33-year-old direct signee taking on a previously highly-regarded prospect from Dagestan.

More importantly, this fight has the best odds of any on the card to go a full 15 minutes, giving Izagakhmaev a strong floor relative to his price tag. We need fighters like this in order to afford the heavy favorites, and he’s arguably the best option.

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The Contrarian Choice

Tyrell Fortune ($7,200)

A thinner, cheap option that I’ll be restricting to GPPs only is former D2 All-American wrestler Tyrell Fortune. He’s a heavy underdog against Russian Rizvan Kuniev ($9,000) with the line moving to Kuniev throughout the week, but there are some stylistic reasons to be bullish on Fortune.

That starts with his wrestling. He landed three takedowns against veteran heavyweight Marcin Tybura in his UFC debut, which he won via unanimous decision in March. Kuniev’s only UFC loss came against Curtis Blaydes, a junior college national champion wrestler who took Kuniev down twice in their bout.

Blaydes is younger, faster, and more athletic than Fortune, but his win was at least a proof of concept if nothing else. Kuniev’s only UFC win came against the undersized (and unmotivated) Jailton Almeida — who is no longer with the promotion — by way of lackluster decision. In theory, that gives Fortune a solid floor, with some takedown-driven upside should he be able to use his wrestling.

The likeliest outcome is Kuniev denying takedowns and winning this one on the feet, but I believe Fortune’s chances are better than his salary and likely ownership imply, so I’ll be ahead of the field on him in GPPs.

The Swing Fights

Axel Sola ($8,600) vs. Ismael Bonfim ($7,600)

Probably my favorite fight on the Abu Dhabi card is the welterweight bout between Axel Sola and Ismael Bonfim. Sola comes in following a decision loss in one of the best fights of the year against Mason Jones, while Bonfim is a “get or get got” aggressive fighter who goes all out for a round or so before folding if he can’t find a finish.

As I told Sean Zerillo in our latest UFC Betting Preview Podcast, I don’t think it’s a cardio issue for Bonfim as much as not having the confidence to continue to attack opponents who don’t go away early. Sola showed plenty of heart in his loss to Jones, surviving to the final bell despite being beaten badly in the second and third rounds, making this an interesting matchup.

The likeliest outcomes here are either the rangy Sola using his more technical striking to pick Bonfim apart from the outside before moving in for a late stoppage, or the more explosive Bonfim blitzing Sola and getting back on track with a quick finish. Both men also have some grappling upside, creating a clear path to a big DFS score for the eventual winner.

I’m leaning towards Sola as the likely victor, but given the salary and early/late dynamics, Bonfim is just as good, if not better, as a DFS option. I’ll have plenty of both, though, as my overall thesis is that the mid-range fighters will be under-owned. Most of the field will be loading up on cheap fighters and the top three or four options in “stars and scrubs” builds, so having either of these two should be fairly contrarian.

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Pictured: Magomed Ankalaev
Photo Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images