Some matchups look like they’re going to be bangers at the start of the season but ultimately lose some luster. This week’s Monday Night Football contest unfortunately falls into that category. The Cowboys will head to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles in an NFC East showdown. The Cowboys are listed as 4.5-point road favorites, while the total sits at 44.0 points.
Both teams enter this contest at just 2-4, and both teams clearly have their warts. For Dallas, their struggles remain primarily on defense. They’ve invested heavily in that unit through trades, free agency, and the draft over the past 12 months, but it hasn’t helped so far.
For the Eagles, their offense remains a big issue. That was true when they were at full strength, and they’re at far less than full strength currently. Jalen Hurts is expected to miss the remainder of the year, and they’ll also be without key receivers DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks vs. the Cowboys.
Still, whoever wins this game will move to 3-4, and they’ll be very live in a weak NFC East. The Giants are leading the division at 4-2-1, but they are far from a juggernaut. Both teams have at least one game with the Giants left on the schedule, and either team could conceivably run them down.
Let’s dive into all the DFS options for Monday Night Football.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by award-winning expert ranker Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace.
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
With the Eagles offense in shambles, it’s no surprise that the DFS firepower in this matchup comes from the Cowboys. All three stud options play for Dallas, and on paper, they have one of the best offenses in football. They haven’t exactly lived up to that billing so far this season – they’re 15th in yards per game and ninth in points – but they have some room for growth moving forward. The team ranks seventh in EPA per play, so they still have the potential for big performances.
CeeDee Lamb has re-established himself as the Cowboys’ clear-cut No. 1 receiver this season. It was more of a 1A/1B situation with George Pickens last year, and Pickens was actually the superior player for fantasy purposes.
This year, Lamb has eclipsed Pickens in every department. He leads the team with a 29% target share, and he’s been targeted on 31% of his routes run. He also leads the team with 39% of their air yards and 50% of their end zone targets. Add it all up, and Lamb entered this week third at the position in terms of fantasy points per game, trailing only Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Puka Nacua.
Lamb got off to a strong start this season, posting at least 23.2 DraftKings points in three of his first four games. That included two performances with at least 38.3 DraftKings points, and he finished as a top-three scorer at the position in both weeks. He’s slipped back to reality recently, but Lamb still saw a whopping 18 targets last week vs. the Packers. There’s ultimately no reason for concern.
He’s in a great spot to get back on track vs. the Eagles. Their once formidable defense is merely 23rd in EPA per pass this season, and they’ve allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing receivers.
Lamb ultimately leads the stud tier in median projection, and he’s also No. 1 in projected Plus/Minus. On a slate with plenty of viable value targets, he should be a very popular choice. No one has a higher optimal Captain rate in Sim Labs, and he’s No. 2 in optimal Flex rate as well.
Javonte Williams leads the Cowboys’ backfield, and he’s turned in another quality season. He’s averaged 16.6 fantasy points per game, and he has pretty thoroughly dominated the team’s RB opportunities. He’s handled 77% of the carries, including 100% from inside the five-yard line. Williams has also played on the majority of the long-down-and-distance snaps, particularly over the past two weeks. It gives him the potential for a true three-down skill set, even though he hasn’t been used much as a pass-catcher.
The issue for Williams recently has been the game script. The Cowboys have played the past two games from behind, which has resulted in minimal carries for Williams. He has just 23 total over the past two weeks after racking up 19 in each of his two previous contests. Williams has still managed to score a touchdown in four straight games, but that has been his only redeeming quality.
The game script has the potential to be favorable this week, with the Cowboys listed as road favorites. It’s also a solid matchup, with Philly ranking just 20th in EPA per rush. Williams doesn’t grade out as well as the other stud targets in our NFL Models, but he still has some merit on this slate.
Dak Prescott has historically been extremely productive when on the field, but he hasn’t been as good as usual this season. His numbers are down compared to last season, which has had an impact on his fantasy production. He entered this week as just QB17 in terms of fantasy points per game after finishing as QB5 last year.
Still, we know what Prescott is capable of. He has historically been at his best in divisional matchup, especially as a favorite. He’s averaged just under 21 DraftKings points per game in that split (per the Trends tool).
Prescott is also in arguably the most favorable spot on this slate. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.2, with the Eagles allowing nearly 20 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs. While Lamb edges him out slightly in terms of median and projected Plus/Minus, Prescott has the slight edge from a ceiling standpoint.
Of course, pairing the two together should be extremely popular. They have a correlation of +0.42, and using one at Captain and the other at Flex will likely be the default strategy.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
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