UFC Macau DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Yadong vs. Figueiredo, More Saturday Fights

After taking Memorial Day weekend off, the UFC returns this weekend with a 13-fight card from Macau. The main event features a pair of bantamweights looking to rebound from a loss, as Song Yadong takes on Deiveson Figueiredo.

We have a special 4:00 AM ET start time for this one (1 AM PST) so be sure to get your lineups in Friday night — or wake up extra early. There’s also a good chance of some overlay for those willing to wake up early, so keep tha tin mind as you enter contests.

We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.

The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:

• Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
• Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
• Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.

Main Event

Song Yadong ($9,500) vs. Deiveson Figueiredo ($6,700)

It’s pretty clear what the UFC is trying to do in Macau, pitting a 28-year-old Chinese fighter against an opponent a decade older who has lost three of his last four fights. The betting markets seem to think that plan is working, with Song as the slate’s heaviest favorite somewhere in the -600 range.

The issue is that this might not make him a great DFS option. Considering his size and strength advantage over the former flyweight, Song is almost certainly the better wrestler of the pair. However, I’d expect him to use that defensively, as Figueiredo is the more dangerous submission threat. Song’s 4.42 significant strikes landed per minute are solid but unspectacular, meaning we’re banking on a relatively quick knockout for him to cover his price tag.

Song is about a coin flip to finish this fight at all, and he is +165 to do so in the first three rounds. That makes it hard for him to cover $9,500, particularly with all of the solid options a few hundred dollars cheaper than him.

On the other hand, I’m not sure what Figueiredo still has to offer at this point. Perhaps he can find some success if this fight extends, but his only real path to DFS upside is via takedowns, and I don’t think he can pull that off against a larger fighter with steadily improving grappling skills.

For that reason, I’m mostly out on this fight – though a cash-game stack is probably fine – with maybe a couple of Figueiredo GPP lineups on the off chance he can pull off the upset. I also wouldn’t be shocked if a losing fighter sneaks into the optimal at some point, and Figgy being the cheapest fighter on the slate makes him somewhat more likely.

The Easy Chalk

Sergei Pavlovich ($9,400)

In another bit of transparent matchmaking, the UFC seems to be punishing Tallison Teixeira ($6,800) for his awful performance over Tai Tuivasa in his last fight, in which both men completely gassed out in the middle of the second round. That punishment comes in the form of Pavlovich, who is 8-3 in the UFC with six first-round knockouts.

Pavlovich has only lost to top fighters, with the three losses coming to Alexander Volkov, Tom Aspinall, and Alistair Overeem (when the latter was still a top-ten fighter). He was more cautious in recent wins over Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Waldo Cortes-Acosta, but Teixeira represents much less of a threat than either of those two.

Pavlovich is known for his massive power but actually comes from a grappling base, and he is the better striker, grappler, and athlete in this matchup. He’s +120 to win in the first round – which honestly feels generous – and -300 to pick up a finish of any kind. He’s a pretty easy top option this week.

The Upside Plays

Jake Matthews ($9,200)

Jake Matthews‘ upside is probably as high as Pavlovich’s is, with the drawback being that I can at least see a way he could lose to Carlston Harris ($7,000). This is somewhat of a striker-vs.-grappler matchup, with Matthews being particularly susceptible to the specific type of submission threat (front headlocks) that Harris does well.

On the other hand, Harris is 38 years old, hasn’t won a fight since 2023, and was getting dominated in that fight before his opponent gassed out. He’s been knocked out in consecutive contests and hasn’t fought at all in more than a year. None of that is a good sign.

Matthews isn’t a true knockout artist, with just two KOs in 15 UFC wins, but he almost certainly has enough power to hurt an aging Harris, and he is clearly the better technical boxer. He doesn’t have the stoppage odds of some of the other fighters in his price range, but I’d argue his true odds are just as strong given the situation.

Zhang Mingyang ($8,900)

The UFC is also attempting to build a star out of Chinese fighter Zhang Mingyang, with those efforts at least temporarily derailed by Johnny Walker in Shanghai last summer. They’re (wisely) giving him a significant step down in competition this time against Alonzo Menifield ($7,300), a 38-year-old who has been knocked out three times in five fights.

Zhang is 19-7 as a pro, with all 19 of those wins coming in the first round. He swings for the fences from the opening bell, overwhelms most of his opponents, and then goes home early. Of course, that also means he’s lost every fight that has extended past Round 1, including to Walker last year.

That makes him a somewhat risky pick, as Menifield could land an early takedown or even just stall Zhang against the wall in an effort to ride out the early storm. I’m not especially confident Menifield still has that ability, but the path is certainly there.

Zhang has the same first-round stoppage odds as Pavlovich at a better price, just with lower overall odds of victory. I would obviously prefer the safety of Pavlovich, all things considered, but with the pricing on this slate fairly difficult, I’m fine with swapping “The Mountain Tiger” when needed.

The Value Play

Angela Hill ($7,500)

There’s a dearth of solid cheaper options on this slate, as we’re getting the typical one-sided matchmaking (for the most part) we see when the UFC travels abroad. That means there’s a very good chance the optimal lineup features a losing fighter with a high floor, and we obviously need the savings for cash games as well.

The somewhat obvious answer is the veteran Angela Hill, who is welcoming former ONE FC champion Jingnan Xiong ($8,700) to the UFC. Xiong is 38 years old, so far from a “prospect,” but has been one of the better strawweights in the world for quite some time.

She also comes from a striking background, and Hill is a pretty safe bet to try to beat a fighter at their weaknesses. The 29-fight UFC veteran was originally a Muay Thai fighter, but against other strikers, she’s more than comfortable looking to grapple. She also has a high output on the feet with over five significant strikes landed per minute.

Both of those factors give her a very solid floor in a fight that is -250 or so to go the full 15 minutes, and I wouldn’t be shocked if she grapples her way to an upset. She’s a cash-game must and a solid GPP punt if you can’t find any other cheap fighters you feel good about.

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The Contrarian Choice

Jose Henrique ($7,800)

We have the rare instance of two former Contender Series losers making their UFC debuts against one another, as Henrique meets Meng Ding ($8,400) on the UFC Macau prelims. The 24-year-old Henrique was finished by Yusaku Kinoshita on the 2022 season of the Contender Series when he was just 20 years old, but he is otherwise undefeated as a pro with three straight knockout wins since then.

The 31-year-old Ding lost a boring decision on the 2024 version of the show and has fought just once since. I wasn’t especially impressed by Ding coming into that bout, to the point that I bet against him despite his facing an opponent who had been inactive for two years.

Given the youth and athleticism of Henrique, I expect him to have made considerable strides, while Ding is both older and less active. It’s not a ton to go on, but we need to take some swings on cheaper fighters, so I’ll take one on the Brazilian.

The Swing Fights

Luis Felipe Dias ($8,600) vs. Yi Sak Lee ($7,600)

This is another matchup pitting a debuting Brazilian against a debuting Asian fighter, with the Brazilian favored this time around.

From a DFS standpoint, it’s exciting both due to the stoppage odds (-235) and the grappler-vs.-grappler nature of the bout. Lee is a Korean fighter with a judo background and seven finishes in eight pro wins, all coming via submission or ground and pound. Dias is 16-5 as a pro with 15 stoppages, including a submission on the Contender Series.

Given the vastly different opposition faced by both men, it’s a bit of an apples-to-oranges comparison, but there’s a solid chance that whoever gets top position first dominates the fight. There’s also a risk that it turns into a relatively low-level striking match if they both respect each other’s grappling, of course.

Even that scenario could turn into a finish, though, with both men having knockout losses on their records. Dias appears to be the stronger/more powerful athlete, which should favor him in that scenario, but it’s hard to say with any degree of confidence.

Either way, I’m leaning into the uncertainty and having pieces of both sides of this fight, though it doesn’t quite rise to the level of “one or the other in every lineup.”

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Pictured: Yadong Song
Photo Credit: Imagn