This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Carlos Martinez: Pitcher, Cardinals
There are no sure-fire pitching options on tonight’s seven-game slate. Martinez draws the Reds, who are implied for a respectable 4.2 runs at Great American Ball Park, but CarMart has been outstanding with a +7.25 FanDuel Plus/Minus over his last 10 starts. With a -136 moneyline, the Cardinals are the slate’s biggest favorites, and Martinez leads the slate with a strong 8.8 K Prediction. Pitchers with similar Vegas data and K Predictions have done well with a 60 percent Consistency Rating (per our Trends tool):
A league-high 90 home runs have been allowed in Great American Ball Park this season, but Martinez has limited home runs in the last year with a .788 HR/9. With few appealing options available, Martinez may garner high ownership, which Pro subscribers can review shortly after lock in our DFS Ownership Dashboard. Of course, it is possible that the 51 percent chance of light rain currently forecast for the Cardinals-Reds game could depress Martinez’s ownership.
Matt Carpenter: First Baseman, Cardinals
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The Cardinals are currently implied for 4.9 runs against the Reds, who are starting the underwhelming Asher Wojciechowski, who has a slate-worst mark of 3.699 HR/9. Per our Lineups page, Carpenter is projected to hit second for the Cardinals:
Carpenter hasn’t popped on the stat sheet with a -3.82 FanDuel Plus/Minus in his last 10 games, but he’s hitting the ball well with a recent batted ball distance of 232 feet, exit velocity of 93 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 42 percent — good for a Recent Batted Ball Luck score of +33. Hitters with similar Statcast data and Rec BBL have averaged a +3.23 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 50.5 percent Consistency Rating. Positive regression could be headed Carpenter’s way.
Jose Altuve: Second Baseman, Astros
Per our Vegas Dashboard, the Astros are currently implied for 4.9 runs, tied for the second-highest team total. Given the small size of the slate and the fact that the Astros-Royals game isn’t forecast for any rain, the Astros may be popular:
Altuve owns a +5.12 FanDuel Plus/Minus over his last 10 games and squares off against the exploitable righty Ian Kennedy. Over his last four starts, Kennedy has allowed four or more earned runs in each outing and six total home runs. Kennedy’s Statcast data is abominable, with a recent batted ball distance of 238 feet, exit velocity of 96 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 50 percent. While Altuve isn’t cheap, he is in a nice spot with a .399 wOBA and .187 ISO against right-handed pitching over the last year.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs: