This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Luis Severino: Pitcher, Yankees
Severino has been outstanding to start the season, posting at least 28.75 DraftKings points in three consecutive starts. He looks to be in another good spot against the Blue Jays, who have the fourth-highest strikeout rate and sixth-lowest wOBA among all teams today. Given the matchup, Severino has a K Prediction of 7.8 and is a -148 moneyline favorite (per the Vegas Dashboard). Pitchers with comparable K Predictions and moneyline odds have historically done pretty well on FanDuel (per our Trends tool):
What makes Severino really attractive is his Statcast data, as over the last 15 days he’s outperformed his 12-month batted ball distance with a differential of -21 feet. If we factor that into the above trend, the Plus/Minus balloons to a massive +9.14.
Carlos Correa: Shortstop, Astros
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s highest-rated five-man stack using the Bales Player Model belongs to the Houston Astros, who currently have the highest implied team total at 5.1 runs:
One guy who stands out is Correa, as he’s crushed the ball recently. Over the last 15 days he has a batted ball differential of 55 feet compared to his 12-month average, and batters with comparable differentials and implied team totals have a historical Plus/Minus of +2.72 on DraftKings. He also sports a Bargain Rating of 95 percent on FanDuel, the highest at his position.
Cameron Rupp: Catcher, Phillies
In addition to provided projected starting lineups for each team, the Lineup page presents important weather information for each game on the slate. For Monday, the forecast calls for a strong wind blowing out at Wrigley for the Phillies-Cubs game:
That strong of a wind has historically had a nice effect on power hitters: Batters with split-adjusted ISOs between .300 and .350 have a Plus/Minus of +2.55 on DraftKings in games with wind blowing out at 15 miles per hour or more. One hitter who fits that trend is Rupp, who has an ISO of .324 against left-handed pitchers over the last 12 months. His projected No. 7 lineup spot could make him a contrarian option for guaranteed prize pools. Pro subscribers can review ownership trends across GPPs of various stakes after lineup lock using our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Good luck, and be sure to read Bryan Mears’ MLB Breakdown later today!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs: