This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Gary Sanchez: Catcher, Yankees
I want to make sure we’re all on the same page: Sanchez ($5,500) is 1-for-14 through three games. That hit was a single. He has three strikeouts, no walks, no runs scored, no runs batted in, and (almost) no chance of having high ownership. If you look in the Player Models, you’ll see that only the opposing Manny Machado ($5,600) has a higher DraftKings salary.
But here’s what’s really disturbing about Sanchez: His DraftKings salary has risen $1,000 since the season started, giving him a Bargain Rating of literally zero percent. Per our Trends tools, catchers with one-month salary increases of $500 to $1,500 and Bargain Ratings of no more than 10 percent have been #bad:
Nevertheless, Sanchez is third in the slate with 0.093 home runs per at-bat over the last 12 months, and he’s still projected to hit second (via our Lineups page). He warrants some contrarian consideration in DraftKings guaranteed prize pools. He’s better than his .071 batting average, and his presence in a lineup will likely give it a good chance of being unique.
Corey Seager: Shortstop, Dodgers
It’s a Coors slate. Rockies and Dodgers stacks will likely be popular. It’s hard not to stack batters with Park Factors of 100. Our Lineup Builder allows stacks to be easily made and incorporated into DFS rosters. Notably, four of the five highest-rated five-player DraftKings stacks in the Bales Model belong to the visiting Dodgers. Here’s the top one:
Seager ($5,500) is one of the highest-rated DraftKings players in our Models and despite his price will probably have a high ownership, which Pro subscribers can review in our DFS Ownership Dashboard shortly after lineups lock.
One potential issue with Seager and the Dodgers — even though he’s crushing this season with a batted ball distance of 259 feet and they easily have a slate-high implied Vegas total of 6.3 runs — is the fact that, in comparison to the Rockies, visiting teams at Coors have historically had lower Plus/Minus values and Consistency and Upside Ratings and higher ownership.
Going with the Rockies instead of the Dodgers might be the optimal game theory play. (I tell CSURAM88 what he wants to hear.)
Max Scherzer: Pitcher, Nationals
Mad Max doesn’t have the slate’s most favorable moneyline (-161) — but currently a slate-high 84 percent of the bets are on the Nationals (per our Vegas Dashboard):
An obscene $13,000 on DraftKings, Scherzer is only $10,300 on FanDuel, where he has a 99 percent Bargain Rating. He leads the slate over the last year with 11.347 strikeouts per nine innings.
Since joining the Nationals in 2015, he’s destroyed the Phillies with an average of 50.22 FanDuel points and a 13.17 Plus/Minus on 88.9 percent Consistency across nine games. Sure, he’s been owned in 39.8 percent of large FanDuel GPPs in those games — but it’s hard to say his performance hasn’t warranted the ownership.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs: