This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Max Scherzer: Pitcher, Nationals
Scherzer is one of the best pitchers in the league and therefore in consideration for daily fantasy purposes every time he takes the mound. However, some pessimism is warranted in this slate. He’s got a Recent Batted Ball Luck Score of -89, which is terrifying, even for a pitcher of Scherzer’s stature. Per the Trends tool, pitchers with comparable K Predictions have a historical Plus/Minus of +3.79 on FanDuel, but if we factor in similar Rec BBL Scores that number decreases by close to 60 percent:
The Braves have also shown some signs of improvement to start the season. Their projected lineup has struck out in only 23 percent of at-bats against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months, which is one of the lowest marks on the slate. Scherzer leads the slate with a Bargain Rating of 91 percent on FanDuel, so he’s in a tough spot: He might be too cheap (and thus chalky) for guaranteed prize pools on FanDuel, but he also might be too uncertain for cash games. On DraftKings, his slate-low Bargain Rating is almost prohibitive.
Mark Trumbo: Outfield, Orioles
The Orioles face the aged Bronson Arroyo, which is probably good for the Baltimore hitters: Arroyo has allowed a massive 3.6 home runs per nine innings over the last 12 months. The Orioles have the slate’s highest implied team total by a significant margin (per the Vegas Dashboard):
Among the projected Orioles starters, no one has a higher Plus/Minus than Trumbo in games with a high implied team total. When the Orioles are implied for 4.5-5.5 runs and facing a right-handed pitcher, Trumbo has an average Plus/Minus of +1.77 on DraftKings and an Upside Rating of 26 percent, which makes him an intriguing GPP option.
Francisco Lindor: Shortstop, Indians
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. As of writing, the four highest-rated five-man DraftKings stacks in the Bales Model all belong to the Orioles, but at No. 5 is an Indians stack of the projected 1-2-3-5-6 hitters:
One batter who stands out is Lindor. He’s increased his average batted ball distance by 50 feet this season — an improvement that historically has correlated with a historical Plus/Minus of +1.77 on DraftKings. If we factor in implied team totals similar to Cleveland’s, the Plus/Minus increases to +2.38. On April 17 (Monday) Lindor was extremely popular (per our DFS Ownership Dashboard), and he looks to be in another great spot today.
Good luck, and be sure to read Bryan Mears’ MLB Breakdown later today!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs: