This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
Jacob deGrom: Pitcher, Mets
DFS players are facing a tough decision on today’s slate between deGrom and Indians SP Corey Kluber. Kluber has the clear edge in Vegas data — he’s a massive -240 favorite — but the peripheral data could push the needle in deGrom’s favor. He has a K Prediction of 8.9, and his batted-ball distance of 174 feet over the past two starts represents a differential of -25 feet when compared to his 12-month average. Historically, pitchers with comparable K Predictions and distance differentials have been awesome values on DraftKings (per the Trends tool):
He has an elite matchup vs. the San Diego Padres, whose projected lineup has posted a .310 wOBA and 28.2% strikeout rate vs. right-handed pitchers, and pitching in San Diego also rewards deGrom with a Park Factor of 77. He will likely have lower ownership than Kluber, which only increases his appeal for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Jesse Winker: Outfielder, Reds
The Reds could be an intriguing stacking target on today’s slate. They’re taking on Twins right-hander Phil Hughes, who has posted a dreadful 2.71 HR/9 and 1.93 WHIP over the past 12 months. The Reds lineup is also very affordable, as only three players own salaries above $3,500 on DraftKings:
One of their most appealing cheap hitters is Winker, the projected leadoff batter. He’s crushed right-handers over the past 12 months, posting a .402 wOBA and .200 ISO, and he has impressive differentials in distance (+10 feet), exit velocity (+4 miles per hour), and hard-hit rate (+17 percentage points) over his past 10 games. Leadoff hitters with comparable salaries and differentials have historically posted an average Plus/Minus of +0.99 on DraftKings.
Lucas Duda: First Base, Royals
The Royals’ implied team total of 4.9 runs ranks third on today’s slate, but it has increased by 0.5 since the Vegas lines opened. The Royals are underpriced relative to their implied total, resulting in a Team Value Rating of 87 on DraftKings:
They’re taking on White Sox right-hander Reynaldo Lopez, and Duda has crushed righties to the tune of a .368 wOBA and .301 ISO over the past 12 months. He has an average Plus/Minus of -2.47 over his past 10 games, but his recent Statcast data suggests that he’s been pretty unlucky over that time frame. FantasyLabs has a proprietary metric called Recent Batted Ball Luck, which measures the difference between a player’s percentile rank in batted ball distance and fantasy scoring over the past 15 days, and Duda’s +63 is one of the top marks on the slate. He’s extremely appealing on FanDuel, where his $2,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%.
Good luck today, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Lucas Duda
Photo credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
