The PGA TOUR heads to the Stadium Course (par 71, 7,261 yards, poa trivialis/bentgrass/ryegrass overseed greens) of TPC Scottsdale this week for the WM Phoenix Open. Nick Taylor (-21) defeated Charley Hoffman in a playoff at last year’s edition of this event. This week, there will be 132 golfers competing, and there will be a normal top 65 and ties cut following the first 36 holes.
The PGA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.
My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.
Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
- Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
- Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green
Don’t forget to check out two key metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.
The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.
And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.
The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.
PGA DFS Cash Game Thoughts
Note: FantasyLabs has partnered with Betsperts Golf and the Rabbit Hole! Sign up for the biggest database of golf stats available on the internet and get 25% off a yearly sub with our link!
Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.
Tool Highlights
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DraftKings $10,000+ Range
Scottie Scheffler ($12,000)
Starting your cash game lineup with Scheffler is the right move for the Phoenix Open. Making his season debut last week at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, Scheffler showed no signs of rust despite missing about two months with a hand injury, finishing T9th while leading the field in SG: Approach. Scheffler has finished inside the top five in five of his past eight starts—including two wins—and now heads to TPC Scottsdale, which undoubtedly is one of his favorite courses on the PGA TOUR. After going back-to-back and winning the Phoenix Open in 2022 and 2023, Scheffler nearly accomplished the three-peat last season, finishing T3rd. Scheffler is gaining an eye-popping 2.9 strokes per round at TPC Scottsdale for his career, which is the best in this field by a huge margin, via the Rabbit Hole.
Now available: our PGA DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
DraftKings $9,000 Range
Sungjae Im ($9,800)
Im has finished inside the top seven in two of his five appearances at TPC Scottsdale and he has carded a top-13 finish in six of his last eight starts. Im ranks second in par-4 efficiency over his last 50 rounds, and he ranks fourth in Strokes Gained per round when we compare this field’s last 50 rounds at desert courses via the Rabbit Hole. Four of the past five Phoenix Open winners have led their fields in par-4 efficiency.
Sahith Theegala ($9,500)
This is a great time to buy low on Theegala. While his recent results haven’t been great, Theegala’s putter came alive last week at Pebble Beach, ranking fourth in the field in SG: Putting, and if he can maintain this form with his flat stick at TPC Scottsdale, Theegala should card a high finish at this track he loves. Theegala has tallied two top-five finishes in three starts at TPC Scottsdale, and he ranks second only to Scheffler in Strokes Gained per round at the par 71.
DraftKings $8,000 Range
Nick Taylor ($8,400)
Taylor has been tremendous at the Phoenix Open, finishing runner-up to Scheffler in 2023 and then winning this tournament a year ago. Taylor just recently captured the fifth PGA TOUR title of his career at the Sony Open three weeks ago, and his ball striking has been superb, with Taylor gaining at least 4.1 strokes on approach at three straight events. If Taylor can resurrect his putter this week to pair with his great ball striking, which is a strong possibility given his track record on these greens, he is a threat for a very high finish. At TPC Scottsdale for the last two years, Taylor has gained a whopping 8.2 strokes putting per start.
Si Woo Kim ($8,000)
Kim posted a career-best T12 at last year’s Phoenix Open, marking his third top-30 finish in a row at TPC Scottsdale. Kim now returns to the desert venue on the heels of a T12 finish at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am last week, in which he opened and closed with a 5-under 67. Outside of around the green, Kim gained strokes in every major category during this finish. Looking to build off this, the 28-year-old has top-25 upside at TPC Scottsdale and is a great bargain at only $8,000.
DraftKings $7,000 Range
Matthew Fitzpatrick ($7,700)
Fitzpatrick has only missed one cut in his last 12 starts, with five top-30 finishes during this span, and he ranks eighth in SG: Putting when we compare this field’s last 50 rounds. Fitzpatrick has finished T10th, T29th, and T15th at the last three Phoenix Opens, and he is a must-roster for only $7,700, which is a massive decrease from his $9,400 salary for last year’s edition of this event. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Fitzpatrick carries +5500 odds to win the Phoenix Open this weekend, which are the same odds as Robert MacIntyre, who is much more expensive for DFS at $9,000.
Billy Horschel ($7,600)
Horschel has made 11 of 12 cuts with six top-30 finishes at TPC Scottsdale, and he is in great form, finishing T21st and T9th in his last two starts. Horschel gained strokes on approach and with his putter during both these finishes, and he has shot 66 or lower in three of these eight rounds, including a second-round 7-under 65 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am last week, which was one stroke shy of tying the lowest score for the tournament. Horschel checks all the boxes this week and is one of the best values on the slate.
Lucas Glover ($7,400)
Glover has made 12-of-15 cuts at TPC Scottsdale, and he is coming off a T3 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am last week. Glover began this start with a 6-under 66, and he finished the tournament second in SG: Approach. Glover has now finished inside the top 30 in three of his past four starts, and during all these high finishes, he gained strokes with both his irons and putter. With Glover in strong form as both a ball striker and putter, he brings excellent upside for a player this cheap.
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DraftKings $6,000 and Below Range
Bud Cauley ($6,800)
Cauley has made five of his last six cuts, and all five of those finishes have been results of T35 or better. When we analyze this field’s last 24 rounds, Cauley ranks 20th in SG: Tee-to-Green and seventh in 400-450-yard par-4 efficiency. That latter stat is crucial for TPC Scottsdale, where five of the 11 par 4s land in this range, and three of the past five winners have finished the event top three in 400-450-yard par-4 efficiency. Cauley has made six of seven cuts at TPC Scottsdale, including three top-30 finishes, and he is the best sub-$7,000 target this week.
Sam Ryder ($6,500)
Including a pair of top-25 finishes, Ryder has made 5-of-6 cuts at TPC Scottsdale, and he enters this week as the maker of six of his last eight cuts. Four of these finishes have been top-30 results, including a T25 at the Farmers Open in his most recent start. Ryder has gained strokes on approach at six tournaments in a row, and he should make the cut in this compelling form.