NFL Week 4 features a Sunday Night Football contest between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 8:20 p.m. ET. The Buccaneers are currently listed as one-point home favorites, while the total sits at just 45.5 points.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
The big storyline in this contest involves an “old school vs. new school” matchup at quarterback. Patrick Mahomes vs. Tom Brady is just about as good as it gets. Brady is the GOAT, racking up seven Super Bowl rings and three MVP awards, while Mahomes is viewed as a potential challenger to his throne. He already has one ring and one MVP in his first four years as a full-time starter.
Mahomes got off to a strong start this season, racking up 360 passing yards and five touchdowns against the Cardinals. It was a great sign for the Chiefs, who were facing more questions than usual after losing Tyreek Hill in the offseason.
Unfortunately, things haven’t been nearly as rosy since then. Mahomes has posted a negative Plus/Minus in back-to-back games, and things don’t figure to get any easier vs. the Buccaneers. They remain one of the best defensive teams in football, ranking first in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA through the first three weeks. Overall, they’ve yet to allow more than 12 points in a game.
That said, the Chiefs will easily be their toughest test of the early season, and Mahomes is capable of finding success against anyone. Mahomes has also historically been nails as an underdog, posting an average Plus/Minus of +10.77 in seven previous occasions (per the Trends tool). The last time he was an underdog was against the Ravens in September of 2020, and he racked up 43.0 DraftKings points.
Mahomes stands out as an excellent option on DraftKings, where he leads all players with a 99% Bargain Rating.
On the other side, Brady has not looked like the same player to start the year. He’s racked up 14.74 DraftKings points or fewer in each of his first three games, and there are legit questions about Brady for the first time in a long time. It’s possible that Father Time has finally caught up to him or that a tumultuous offseason has taken its toll.