NFL DFS is a game of conviction, and below you’ll find a list of flag plants that our panel of DFS analysts are high on for Week 4.
Let’s get right into it.
Week 3 NFL DFS Flag Plants
Sean Koerner: Director of Predictive Analytics for Action Network
Evan Engram ($3,400 DraftKings; $5,000 FanDuel) (GPP)
Over the past couple of weeks on the Fantasy Flex podcast I was high on Christian Kirk in Week 2 (6/78/2) and Zay Jones in Week 3 (10/85/1), I’m going to try to keep my luck going with Jaguars pass catchers and pivot to Evan Engram for Week 4.
Engram is coming off of a Week 3 dud where he posted a 1/9/0 line, but he was inches away from a 2/20/1 line given he had an acrobatic 11-yard TD grab overruled via replay. His underlying usage has been outstanding this year, running a route on 81% of Trevor Lawrence’s dropbacks, and I think it’s only a matter of time until he posts a top five week at tight end.
It could happen as soon as this week as the Jaguars face an Eagles team that has elite corners, who should be able to slow down the Jaguars’ wide receivers a bit.
Also, Zay Jones popped up on the injury report with an ankle injury, and if he were to be limited or miss the game, it could result in Engram getting an extra target or two.
I think Engram is an excellent GPP play this week.
Nick Giffen: Predictive Analyst at Action Network
Jonathan Taylor ($8,800 DraftKings; $8,700 FanDuel) (GPP)
Taylor projects to be outside the top five most played running backs on the slate despite having a top two or three ceiling at the position.
That’s largely in part to his subpar fantasy scoring performance in the past two weeks, which is more of a product of the Colts’ inability to convert drives into scoring.
The Colts have scored only 20 points this year, but my expected score metric shows they should have about 52.3 points scored this year. At some point, they will regress back to expectation.
There isn’t a much better spot to bounce back than against a Titans team that has been bottom six in fantasy points allowed to the running back position thus far. They’ve allowed the fifth-most yards to the running back position and are tied for the seventh-most targets allowed per game to running backs.
My expected points metric shows the Colts should be a bigger favorite than the 3.5 points they currently are. If that ends up coming true, expect Taylor to shine.
Matt LaMarca: FantasyLabs Contributor/Editor
Rashad Bateman ($5,600 DraftKings; $6,600 FanDuel) (GPP)
The game between the Bills and Ravens is going to be an extremely popular target this week, but Bateman is flying under the radar. He’s coming off a subpar performance in Week 3, finishing with just four targets, but he scored a touchdown in each of the first two weeks. He ranks second on the team in target share, and air yards share for the year, trailing only Mark Andrews in both departments.
Additionally, the Bills’ secondary is extremely banged up at the moment. Micah Hyde and Tre’Davious White remain on the IR, and they have three additional cornerbacks listed on the injury report. While they probably won’t be as short-handed as they were last week – they were missing their entire starting secondary – it’s still a great spot for the Ravens’ pass-catchers to do some damage.
Notorious: RotoGrinders Analyst
Courtland Sutton ($6,400 DraftKings; $6,800 FanDuel) (GPP)
The Broncos have played in primetime two times already, so their mistakes have been magnified. Nate Hackett has struggled with the play-calling, and both Hackett and Russell Wilson have struggled with clock management.
The way I see it, the offense isn’t going to get any worse. Wilson should have more confidence after leading his team to a big game-winning drive against the Niners in Week 3. He clearly has a favorite target, and that is Sutton, who has commanded a 28% target share and a 38% air yards share.
The Raiders haven’t been able to get pressure on the quarterback (second-worst adjusted sack rate in the NFL), and they have a vulnerable secondary.
I’m willing to bank on the WR1 in a potentially explosive offense that’s playing in an exploitable matchup.
Dan Gaspar: RotoGrinders Analyst
Elijah Moore ($4,800 DraftKings; $5,500 FanDuel) (GPP)
Garrett Wilson has stolen the spotlight in New York, but with a quarterback change expected to take place, we could see Moore work his way back into fantasy relevance. Moore has routinely been running the most routes for the Jets but has disappointed in the box score with a scoreless 12/139 line through three games.
Joe Flacco clearly favored teammate Garrett Wilson, but Moore already has an established connection with Zach Wilson and could start to garner some more looks.
Moore has the ability to break long plays with his speed and realistically all he needs is one house call to pay off his low price tag.
Beermakersfan: RotoGrinders Analyst
Austin Ekeler ($7,700 DraftKings; $8,400 FanDuel) (GPP)
Ekeler has been a disappointment in the eyes of some and while the red zone work he saw last season hasn’t been there, the valuable targets in the passing game are still strong with 18 over the past two weeks alone that he has turned into 17 receptions.
The Chargers come into this game at 1-2, and Justin Herbert looks much less than 100% so it would make a ton of sense in this juicy matchup with Houston to lean on Ekeler even more. Houston has been destroyed by every running game they have played, allowing both the most rushing yards and the most fantasy points to opposing running backs.
I think we finally get the ceiling game we have been waiting for at a discounted ownership in tournaments this week.