UFC 330 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Islam Makhachev and Mackenzie Dern’s Title Defenses, More Saturday Fights

The UFC is taking a quick trip back to the Apex before UFC 321 next week, with a lackluster card that’s bailed out by an excellent main event. Perennial top-ten contender Mateusz Gamrot takes on the surging Quillan Salkilld in an important lightweight bout.

The 12-fight card is back to the standard 5:00 p.m. ET start time.

We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.

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The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:

• Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
• Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
• Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in tournaments, for example.

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.

Main Event

Islam Makhachev ($9,200) vs. Ian Machado Garry ($7,000)

Former lightweight champion and arguably the pound-for-pound best fighter in the world, Islam Makhachev makes his first defense of the welterweight title this weekend against Ian Garry. It’s a fascinating fight from a stylistic standpoint, as Garry presents a unique challenge for the dominant Makhachev.

I’ve been part of a seemingly growing minority favoring the underdog here. Makhachev – unlike his mentor, Khabib Nurmagomedov – typically executes his takedowns from close range. Garry has a four-inch edge in both height and reach, along with solid footwork, giving him at least the potential to keep the fight at long range and negate some of Makhachev’s best work. Despite being known as a striker, Garry got his combat sports start in judo, which relies exclusively on close-range takedowns, so he’s also well-versed in defending those attacks.

From a DFS standpoint, that could be bad news, though. The likeliest Garry win involves a rather slow-paced affair, with Garry taking potshots at range while defending takedowns. He’s not an especially voluminous striker under the best of circumstances, and his output will almost certainly decline due to the grappling threat.

Conversely, if Makhachev is able to take Garry down but not keep him there, he could conceivably score well even in a loss, with a huge ceiling if he gets the win. For that reason, I’m using Makhachev only in cash games on this two-title-fight slate, and I’m comfortable fading the fight entirely in tournaments.

Co-Main Event

Mackenzie Dern ($9,000) vs. Gillian Robertson ($7,200)

The two title fights at UFC 330 account for two of just three fights favored to go the distance, which takes a little bit of shine off the proceedings for tournament players. However, with the takedowns somewhat likely to come from the underdog in the co-main event, there’s some potential value in Gillian Robertson as she tries to spoil Mackenzie Dern’s first title defense.

Dern is one of the three or four best female jiu-jitsu practitioners of all time but is a painfully limited wrestler, both offensively and defensively. Taking her down is typically a bad plan due to her BJJ skills, but during her current three-fight winning streak, she’s been taken down a total of 13 times, with every opponent landing at least two. Robertson, a fellow black belt, probably has the skills to avoid a submission and averages nearly three takedowns per 15 minutes in her UFC career.

That gives Robertson plenty of upside, with a solid floor based on the odds of this fight going the full 15 minutes. Dern is the more capable and active striker, so she could certainly have some moments on the feet. She also landed over 100 significant strikes in her title win against a somewhat similar opponent in Virna Jandiroba. Plus, with more power and better submission skills, she’s the likelier finisher.

For that reason, I have no issues with stacking this one in cash games, though it’s not strictly necessary with the other solid options in both women’s price ranges. I’ll certainly have Robertson, while Dern is a borderline option depending on salary. For tournaments, I’ll have exposure to both women, but because this is one of three fights favored to go the distance, a full fade in some lineups is probably fine, too.

The Easy Chalk

Myktybek Orolbai ($9,600)

Myktybek Orolbai has a near-ideal situation for DFS this weekend as a heavy favorite over the lone Philly native on the card, Jeremiah Wells ($7,000). Orolbai is the heaviest favorite on the card and is +175 to win in the first round – on a card with enough clear value that his price tag isn’t prohibitive.

More importantly, Wells might be the perfect opponent for Orolbai to pile up takedowns. Wells is an accomplished BJJ black belt who has found plenty of success with his own grappling in the past but is 39 years old and has fought just once since February 2024. There’s a solid chance he has enough grappling skill to get back to his feet when taken down but not enough to avoid the takedowns in the first place.

A similar dynamic with Chris Curtis in Orolbai’s last outing led to Orolbai piling up an absurd 19 takedowns in a win that netted 168.2 DraftKings points. That is obviously a “must-have” score in any contest type. While I’d certainly take the under on 18.5 takedowns, I wouldn’t be especially shocked if Orolbai reached double digits this week.

If he doesn’t, it’s probably because he gets an early finish or controls Wells for a few minutes in every round of the fight, either of which would also be just fine for DFS.

The Upside Plays

Mansur Abdul-Malik ($9,500)

With +200 odds to pick up a first-round win over Dustin Stoltzfus ($6,700), the heavily favored Mansur Abdul-Malik has similar upside to Myktybek Orolbai, minus the ridiculous takedown capabilities. That isn’t to say he can’t land any takedowns – he averages about 1.5 per 15 minutes – but his upside is more heavily dependent on a quick stoppage.

That’s the likeliest outcome against Stoltzfus, who is 1-3 over his last four and has been finished four times overall in the UFC. Abdul-Malik has a huge athleticism edge over the veteran and was given this matchup as a bounce-back opportunity after being stopped by Yousri Belgaroui in his last fight.

I have concerns about Abdul-Malik’s overall skill level and his recent ugly knockout loss, though, which are enough to downgrade him from “easy chalk” and keep him out of my lineups in cash games.

Esteban Ribovics ($9,400)

Esteban Ribovics might actually outpace Orolbai as the favorite projected to be the most owned on the slate, as he also has a very winnable matchup against a fading veteran. In his case, it’s Edson Barboza ($6,800), who enters the weekend on a three-fight skid at 40 years old after most recently being dropped twice and finished in the first round by fellow UFC 330 fighter Jalin Turner.

Ribovics is 4-3 in the promotion but has lost exclusively to grapplers, a worrying trend in the UFC’s lightweight division but not one that’s likely to matter here. Barboza has averaged less than half a takedown per 15 minutes in his 32-fight UFC career, which is a pretty extensive sample showing that he rarely wrestles offensively.

That likely means a striking affair between the two, with Ribovics holding a massive durability edge. Barboza relied on his speed and reflexes for a long time but has suffered seven knockdowns in his last seven fights and taken tons of damage.

The downside to Ribovics is that he won’t wrestle offensively, so we’re relying exclusively on a quick finish for upside. With +165 odds to do so in the first round – the best on the card – that’s not a huge criticism, but I prefer Orolbai in cash games where possible.

The Value Play

Charles Johnson ($6,900)

Charles Johnson came into fight week as one of the heaviest underdogs on the card against Jose Ochoa. Then, Ochoa was forced out of the fight and replaced by Eduardo Henrique da Silva dos Santos ($TBD). Better known as “Chapolin,” Henrique is a TUF and DWCS veteran who lost in the first round on the former but won on the latter. He hasn’t competed in nearly a year.

I was impressed enough by Chapolin on the Contender Series, but his long layoff and short-notice booking make it tough to get a read on him. More importantly, Johnson is priced like the +285 underdog he was instead of the -120 or so favorite he is now.

Because this is also the only non-title fight favored to go the distance, Johnson has an absurd floor for his price tag, along with a reasonable amount of upside. He’s a must in cash games and is probably worth eating the chalk in plenty of tournament lineups as well.

However, assuming Chapolin is priced below Johnson – which we would expect for the underdog – he’ll be an elite contrarian play. That would mean he’s priced as a +350 or so underdog despite having +120ish odds. With the field flocking to Johnson, Chapolin would be a massive leverage opportunity. You should have one or the other in all of your lineups.

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The Contrarian Choice

Rafael Tobias ($7,100)

I was a bit surprised to see Tobias as such a heavy underdog against Lucas Fernando ($9,100), given that Tobias got to the UFC with a win on the Contender Series while Fernando made his way back after losing his tryout fight. Sure, Tobias had a very favorable matchup on DWCS and lost to Diyar Nurgozhay in his debut – but he landed a pair of takedowns and was somewhat competitive against a fighter who won by knockout just last week.

It’s a fairly binary fight, with Fernando holding advantages in height and reach while also being a much smoother striker. However, Fernando’s losses outside of the Contender Series have largely come when he’s been dominated on the mat, as in his LFA title loss to current UFC fighter Azamat Bekoev. While that was some time ago, Fernando’s takedown defense was dreadful, and grappling is Tobias’ best attribute.

With this fight -220 to end inside the distance, the market is strongly leaning toward a stoppage. Fernando has never been finished, while Tobias has one knockout loss, though it came shortly after his 20th birthday. Assuming Tobias, now 23, is continuing to improve, I think he could surprise some people in a matchup that somewhat favors his strengths.

His floor is almost nothing since a failure to secure a quick takedown probably spells disaster, but he’s an interesting tournament flier.

The Swing Fight

Jalin Turner ($8,600) vs. Kaue Fernandes ($7,600)

The fight I’m most excited about outside of the title fights on this card is the lightweight tilt between Jalin Turner and Kaue Fernandes. Lightweight is reliably awesome in general, but this is a near-perfect clash of styles that’s hard to predict and likely to produce a massive score for the winner.

Fernandes is an elite leg kicker, landing double-digit strikes to the legs in all three of his UFC fights and finishing two of those fights either directly or indirectly with the technique. One was officially ruled a TKO due to leg kicks; in the other, he dropped his opponent with them and then secured the finish on the ground. In his lone decision win, he picked up a pair of leg-kick knockdowns, and a less masochistic referee could’ve easily stopped the fight.

That’s a problem for Turner, who has checked just two leg kicks while absorbing 13 in his last four fights, all of which ended quickly. In his last fight to reach a decision, he ate 23 of the 26 leg kicks attempted by Dan Hooker. Turner is an extremely tall, thin-legged lightweight at 6-foot-3, so I’m not sure he can take many leg kicks from Fernandes.

However, the best counter to leg kicks is a straight punch over the top – and those are much easier to land with a six-inch height advantage. If Turner can land on Fernandes before or during one of the first few calf kicks, he certainly has the power to put the Brazilian out.

I’m not at all confident about which man finishes the proceedings here, but I’m very confident that the fight ends in a knockout. At their balanced price tags, that probably means a spot in the optimal lineup for the winner, so I’ll have near-100% exposure to this fight in tournaments.

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Pictured: Islam Makhachev
Photo Credit: Imagn Images