NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (Monday, Nov. 28): Pat Freiermuth is Underpriced

NFL Week 12 wraps up with a Monday Night Football matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts are listed as 2.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 39.5 points.

In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

Jonathan Taylor is really the only player in this contest worth calling a stud, and even he has had a subpar season by his standards. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in two of his eight games, and he’s averaging nearly a full yard per carry fewer than he did last season. The biggest difference has been in the scoring department, dropping from 20 touchdowns in 2021-22 to just three touchdowns so far this season.

However, Taylor is trending in the right direction. He had one of his best games of the year two weeks ago, finishing with 27.3 DraftKings points, and he followed that up with 17.4 DraftKings points last week. He’s had 22 carries in both contests, and he’s racked up 231 total rushing yards.

Taylor’s fantasy profile has also seen an uptick following the trade of Nyheim Hines. Taylor was used sparingly as a receiver to start the year, but he’s posted a route participation of at least 65% in back-to-back games. He still doesn’t figure to catch a ton of passes most weeks, but adding a few catches would be massive for his fantasy value.

Taylor draws a tough matchup this week vs. the Steelers, but he should benefit from the Colts being listed as home favorites. He dominated in that split in the previous two years, posting an average Plus/Minus of +8.69 across 12 occasions (per the Trends Tool). He has not been able to duplicate those results this season, but the Colts have only been favored in two contests.

Michael Pittman Jr. is the Colts’ top option in the passing game, but that has not led to much fantasy production. Like Taylor, Pittman has posted a positive Plus/Minus in just two previous games this season.

Pittman has seen a boost the past two weeks with Matt Ryan back under center, but he’s still finished with just 13.5 and 12.3 DraftKings points. Those numbers don’t exactly jump off the page, and they certainly don’t justify a $10,200 price tag.

Pittman’s underlying metrics are also subpar for a top receiver. He owns a 25.3% target share, and he’s racked up 28.2% of his team’s air yards. He ranks 20th and 39th in those categories, respectfully, among the league’s pass-catchers.

The Steelers have not been a particularly tough matchup for receivers this season, but they’ve played most of the year without T.J. Watt. With Watt back in the fold, I would expect their defense to be much stronger moving forward. That wasn’t the case last week vs. the Bengals, but stopping the Bengals is a whole different animal than stopping the Colts.