Aaron Rodgers leads the Green Bay Packers into Thursday Night Football against the AFC South-leading Tennessee Titans. Rodgers is coming off one of his best performances of the season, completing 70.0% of his passes for 224 yards and three touchdowns. Of course, he owes some of his success to Christian Watson, who has overcome early-season yips to cement himself as the primary receiver in the Packers’ passing game.
As usual, we’ve used the ScoreAndOdds Parlay Simulator to develop a three-leg parlay expected to yield positive results.
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Titans vs. Packers Same Game Parlay Picks
For those who aren’t familiar, ScoresAndOdds recently released a new tool to set up same-game parlays on various sportsbooks called Parlay IQ.
This simple-to-use tool quickly shows which bets are positive expected value (+EV) in any game based on their thousands of game simulations.
If you are building a same-game parlay — as you add bets to your slip — the Parlay IQ tool will update with other bet suggestions that are most likely to hit based on your selected bets.
Now, let’s get into what I am targeting tonight.
Aaron Rodgers Over 243.5 Passing Yards
Rodgers’ frustration has been noticeable this season, but last week’s effort could be a sign of things to come. The two-time defending MVP has watched his metrics disintegrate with a new and experienced receivers corps, which isn’t as bad as they appear.
The Packers have two receivers tied in the top eight for dropped passes, contributing to the fourth-most drops as a team in the NFL. That has negatively impacted Rodgers’ completion rate, falling to a three-year low of 65.0%, marginally below his career average. With over half a season under their belts, we’re anticipating the Packers’ pass-catchers to haul in those targets more frequently, helping Rodgers progress back toward the mean.
As that happens, we should see Rodgers’ passing yards increase. His passing yards have taken the worst hit this season, falling to a career-worst 231.5 yards per game as a starter and well below his career benchmark of 258.6. For Rodgers to make meaningful progress, we should see a few high-octane games from the four-time All-Pro, starting tonight against the Titans. Moreover, Tennessee has one of the worst pass defenses, allowing 272.6 yards through the air per game, the second-most in the NFL.
Lambeau Field has always been a safe haven for Rodgers, which is evident again this year. His completion rate, yards per pass attempt, touchdown to interception ratio, and quarterback rating improve substantially at home. All of which indicates that Rodgers should go over 243.5 passing yards on Thursday Night Football.
Allen Lazard Over 45.5 Receiving Yards
Watson earned the limelight with his three-touchdown performance last week, putting forth a career-best outing; however, he remains a secondary contributor to Allen Lazard, who is Rodgers’ top receiving option.
Lazard leads the team in targets and receiving yards, accumulating 59.0 yards per game and 8.6 yards per target. Rodgers looked Lazard’s way just four times last week, his fewest targets since Week 1, setting this week up as a bounce-back spot for his top receiver.
Leading up to last week’s performance, Lazard had accumulated at least seven targets in five straight games, totaling 369 yards on 24 catches. Further, the 26-year-old had at least 55 receiving yards in four of those contests, well above his prop total vs. the Titans.
That five-game sample accounts for most of Lazard’s metrics this year and is a good indicator of what to expect from him moving forward. He’s accumulated a 15.9% target share while appearing in eight games, jumping to 21.3% from Weeks 4 to 9.
Lazard has been Rodgers’ most reliable receiver this year, and he continues to see the lion’s share of looks in the passing game. We could see a season-best performance from him against an inferior Titans’ secondary, and it’s worth backing the over 45.5 on his receiving yard prop.
Aaron Rodgers Any Time Touchdown Scorer +950
We rolled the dice earlier in the year with a quarterback as an anytime touchdown scorer, and it didn’t pay off. We’re going back to the well in Week 11, betting Rodgers crosses the plane and using it as a considerable multiplier in our three-leg parlay.
For Rodgers to cash, he needs to be on the receiving end of a pass or carry the ball into the endzone. Throughout his career, the 38-year-old has been effective as a runner, averaging 4.9 yards per carry for 34 touchdowns.
We saw this a couple of weeks ago with the Chiefs. The Titans fall back into coverage in the red zone, hoping to prevent a touchdown for a prolific quarterback, creating ample time and space for Patrick Mahomes to run the ball in. Granted, Rodgers doesn’t have the mobility of Mahomes, but he remains opportunistic in the running game. Rodgers is averaging 4.0 yards per carry this season, breaking off runs in eight of ten appearances.
According to the ScoreAndOdds projections, there’s a playable edge in backing Rodgers to find the endzone. There’s a 15% chance the Packers’ quarterback scores and +950 odds on the betting board, leaving bettors with a +5.5% advantage.
The screenshot above is the bet slip on ScoresAndOdds. The screenshot below is the bet slip on FanDuel, after clicking the “Place Bets” shortcut:
Export Bet Slip to FanDuel
As usual, we’re taking a substantive advantage in the sports market. The ScoreAndOdds algorithm implies that this bet should carry a +1900 price tag, whereas FanDuel Sportsbook is offering a much more appealing +2667.
Happy sweating, and good luck!
