Specifically, I will be focusing on players’ ownership projections and Leverage Scores within our FantasyLabs Models to identify these contrarian targets. Leverage Scores are a combination of a player’s projected ceiling and ownership. In other words, a high ceiling combined with a low ownership projection means a high leverage score.
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Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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NFL DFS High-Leverage Stack
Dak Prescott ($6,500) + CeeDee Lamb ($8,200)
The Cowboys visit the Eagles this Sunday, and this NFC East clash presents the highest total on the slate (47 points), via the FantasyLabs Vegas page. The way to beat Philadelphia is through the air, and Prescott’s impressive play should continue in this huge matchup.
The Eagles are allowing the third most passing touchdowns this season (16), and Prescott heads into this tilt in great form after throwing for four touchdowns and 304 yards this past Sunday vs. the Commanders, resulting in a season-best 32.06 DraftKings points for the quarterback. For the season, Prescott ranks ninth in yards per attempt (7.4) and 12th in DraftKings points per dropback (0.48). The 30-year-old was brilliant vs. the Eagles last season, scoring over 30 DraftKings points in both meetings with the division rival, and brings a similar upside this weekend.
Lamb is also coming off a season-best performance – he erupted for 44 DraftKings points last week — and is the undisputed top option to stack with Prescott. Lamb leads Dallas with a 24.8% target share this season, including eight targets over 20 yards and seven red zone targets.
The 24-year-old ranks fourth among receivers in DraftKings points per snap (0.39) and notably went off for 37 DraftKings points the last time he faced Philadelphia. Furthermore, Lamb has surpassed 20 DraftKings points in five of the last seven Cowboys’ games that have carried a total of at least 45 points via the Trends Tool.
Yes, the wideout is expected to be a popular option on DraftKings this Sunday, but Prescott is slated for single-digit ownership via the BLITZ projections. As a result, this stack shouldn’t be deployed by many DFS players and is a stack that absolutely has the upside to help you win GPPs.
NFL DFS Running Back Leverage Pick
Saquon Barkley ($7,800)
With most DFS players gravitating towards Alvin Kamara this weekend, Barkley should come with far less ownership at essentially the same price and is an awesome pivot play. This season, the 26-year-old leads all running backs in carries per game (22) and snap rate (82.4%). As a receiver, Barkley impressively ranks second on the Giants in target share (18.7%), which ranks third among running backs.
Barkley’s usage in scoring territory has been especially encouraging, with him seeing 19 red zone carries in only five games. Yet, Barkley has only rushed for one touchdown this season. Positive regression is clearly coming in this department, and this Sunday’s matchup with the Raiders is the perfect spot for him to find the paydirt with his legs, possibly more than once. This season, Las Vegas is tied for the third most rushing touchdowns allowed to running backs (8), and they are yielding the sixth most yards per rush (4.5).
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick
Michael Pittman Jr. ($6,600)
Pittman Jr. isn’t getting the attention he deserves in the BLITZ’s ownership projections and is an outstanding target at this reasonable salary. While losing Anthony Richardson (shoulder) for the season was extremely disappointing for the Colts, Pittman Jr. has been excellent with Garden Minshew under center, contributing 18.5 DraftKings PPG in the four games the veteran quarterback has started this season. In those contests, Pittman Jr. has garnered a target on 24% of his routes and has seen a whopping 10 red zone targets, which is a massive number for a four-game sample.
For this Sunday, Pittman Jr. meets a Panthers defense that is the fourth worst-graded unit on PFF. Indianapolis sports the fourth-highest implied team total on the slate in this spot (23.5 points), and this game’s total is tied for the second-largest on the board (44 points). This is the highest implied team total the Colts have seen this season, and Pittman has a ceiling near 25 DraftKings points in this spot in the BLITZ projections, which ranks eighth among all wideouts.
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NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick
Daniel Bellinger ($2,500)
This slate severely lacks appealing tight end options, and taking a flier on Bellinger at this bare minimum salary makes a ton of sense with the opportunity cost so low at the position. Darren Waller (hamstring) has already been ruled out, leaving Bellinger as the Giants’ main tight end.
With Waller only available for 23% of the snaps last week vs. the Jets, Bellinger ran a route on 80% of his team’s dropbacks. While the fourth-round pick from last year’s draft only saw one target, New York was a mess at quarterback in this contest, with Tyrod Taylor (ribs) exiting and rookie Tommy DeVito struggling mightily when he came in afterward.
Laughably, the Giants finished with -9 passing yards in the loss. Thankfully, New York will be getting Daniel Jones (neck) back this weekend, which is huge news for their offense and especially Bellinger. In his five starts this season, Jones targeted a tight end on 25% of his throws.
While his upside is limited, Bellinger should catch a few passes this Sunday and has the potential to finish as one of the best point-per-dollar values at his position.
Note: player and ownership projections may change leading up to lock. Be sure to check out the Player Models for any changes.