Monday features Game 3 of the NBA Finals between the New York Knicks and the San Antonio Spurs at 8:30 p.m. ET. The Knicks are listed as 2.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 216.5 points.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
Down two games to zero, the Spurs are going to play desperate, which is why this spread is so tight. They came into the NBA Finals being favored to take home the NBA Championship; however, their backs are against the wall now. No team has lost its first two home games and come back to win it all. One team was swept, which they are in danger of while playing at Madison Square Garden the next two games.
Victor Wembanyama is in a pricing tier of his own, being $2,200 more than the two Knicks studs. He has recorded over 50 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, averaging 27.5 points, 10.5 rebounds, 3.5 blocks, 2.0 assists, and 1.5 steals per game. Wembanyama shot much better in Game 2 than Game 1, but he has struggled in this matchup with the Knicks having the best defensive rating in the NBA playoffs.
Wembanyama posted a 30%+ usage rate in back-to-back games and is projected for another high-usage Game 3. Our NBA Model has Wembanyama projected for a near 100-point ceiling, which is 14 points more than the next closest player. The minutes he is playing recently boost his upside even more. He is an expensive option that may be best played at the utility position, but Wembanyama is impossible to ignore.
The Knicks are looking to take a stranglehold on the NBA Finals. Already leading 2-0 in the series, the Knicks could all but seal their first NBA Championship since 1973 with a win tonight. Madison Square Garden is going to be raucous; the Knicks are 6-1 this postseason, and they have won 14 straight games. If they end the NBA Finals at home with a 4-0 sweep, this Knicks team could go down as one of the best teams ever.
Karl-Anthony Towns has recorded a double-double in both NBA Finals games and has captured this feat in six of his last seven games. Towns presents a different challenge for Wembanyama on both ends of the floor. He can make Wembanyama defend the perimeter with his elite shooting. Towns has made three 3-pointers in three of his last five games and is shooting an absurd 48.1% from downtown this postseason.
Among the stud pay-up options, Towns is the best bang for your buck. Playing him at the captain position provides so many lineup avenues and doesn’t break the bank like Wembanyama does. It would not be shocking if he led this slate in captain and utility ownership. The Knicks have the best rebounding rate in the playoffs at 54.3%, in large part due to Towns’ dominance on the glass. He is an elite play in all formats.
Jalen Brunson has yet to have that dominant shooting performance throughout the entire game that we are accustomed to. It is not for a lack of effort. Brunson has 56 field goal attempts in the two NBA Finals games but is only shooting 33.9% from the field and 23.5% from behind the arc. Brunson has still scored 50 combined points with many clutch moments, but he has room for more, making him intriguing.
One of these games, Brunson is going to put it all together, and that could be tonight. His high-quality usage rate is going to give him every opportunity to do so. For tournaments, I prefer going to Towns or Brunson at the captain position and pairing them with Wembanyama at a utility spot. There is enough value to fit in both. Brunson leads the slate in projected usage rate and projected minutes. He is my favorite captain.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
NBA DFS Mid-Range Picks
Stephon Castle has proved to be an incredibly consistent fantasy producer during the Spurs’ playoff run. He led the Spurs with a 32.8% usage rate in Game 2, attempting 14 field goals in only 28 minutes. Castle has dealt with foul trouble, having to guard Jalen Brunson and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over the past two series, but he has also become the second option to Wembanyama in the Spurs’ scoring pecking order.
OG Anunoby has scored 17 points in back-to-back games while shooting 45.5% from the field and from behind the arc. He is one of the best two-way players in the league, with 3 steals and 3 blocks in the first 2 games. Anunoby is also extremely consistent, scoring at least 17 points in 10 of his last 12 playoff games. He does not have the same ceiling as others in this game, but he is as consistent as they come.
De’Aaron Fox scored 20 points in Game 2, shooting 8-for-12 from the field after posting a dud in Game 1. He still does not look 100%, but the extra day off between Game 2 and tonight should be beneficial for him. With a usage rate above 20%, Fox has the fourth-highest projected Plus/Minus at the utility position. He provides experience at the guard position for the Spurs and will be playing big minutes again tonight.
Josh Hart has shot 1-for-9 from the field and 0-for-5 from behind the arc in both NBA Finals games but can still provide value with his peripherals. In his last two combined games, Hart has 21 rebounds, 10 assists, 5 steals, and 2 blocks. His salary has dropped $1,000, making him an amazing value option tonight. Hart leads this slate with the highest projected Plus/Minus at the utility position by a landslide.
Mikal Bridges erupted in Game 2 with a huge stat-stuffing performance. He shot 8-for-13 from the field and 4-for-6 from downtown while scoring 20 points and contributing 6 rebounds and 6 assists in a game-high 41 minutes. In his last 4 games, Bridges has 2 games with 40 DraftKings points and 2 games with 25 or fewer points. His salary feels too cheap given the upside that he can provide after a huge Game 2.
Julian Champagnie played more minutes in Game 2 than Game 1 but had half the production. His Game 1 performance consisted of a 16-point, 10-rebound double-double, accumulating 36 DraftKings points. Champagnie has been a boom-or-bust player recently, which makes him a great play in tournaments. He plays the fewest minutes per game of any Spurs starter but can be a solid scorer and rebounder.
Devin Vassell is another consistent Spurs fantasy producer who has 9 rebounds in back-to-back games while also averaging 11.5 points, 4 assists, and 30.5 DraftKings points per game. He has only shot 40% from the field and 30% from downtown in the NBA Finals, but he can still provide value with his elite rebounding ability. Vassell has the fifth-highest projected Plus/Minus at the utility position tonight.
Dylan Harper is not your average rookie. It is only a matter of time until he is taking over the starting point guard duties, but that is likely a next-year project. This postseason, Harper is shooting 52.7% from the field while only playing 26 minutes per game. His playing time has increased recently, but he is still coming off the bench. His price tag feels way too low for the upside and potential that he can provide.
NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Landry Shamet ($4,400): Shamet is in his own pricing tier and surprisingly has the worst projected Plus/Minus at the utility position. He has scored at least 13 points in 4 straight games while shooting a blistering 59.4% from the field and 63.6% from behind the arc during that time. Shamet doesn’t do much besides score from a fantasy standpoint, but he has been a lethal shooter lately.
- Miles McBride ($3,600): McBride has respectable peripherals but is still dependent on his perimeter jump shot. Over 70% of his field goal attempts come from distance this postseason, where he is shooting 41.7%. He has made at least 1 3-pointer in 10 of his last 11 games, with a ceiling of 7 3-pointers against the 76ers. Similar to Shamet, McBride is not grading well in our NBA Model.
- Mitchell Robinson ($3,200): Robinson has been valuable on both ends of the floor for the Knicks. The Spurs deployed “hack-a-Robinson” in Game 2, and Robinson connected on 3-for-6 from the line. He came up with a big stop last game and is averaging 11.9 DraftKings points per game this series.
- Keldon Johnson ($3,000): Johnson has been a boom-or-bust value option for the Spurs. He has only scored 3 points in back-to-back games while getting 12 minutes per game. The NBA’s Sixth Man of the Year has been a disappointment recently, but since the Thunder series, he is averaging 12.3 points and 18.5 DraftKings points on the road compared to 5.2 points and 9.8 DraftKings points at home.
- Jose Alvarado ($2,000): Alvarado has played double-digit minutes each of the last 3 games and has been productive, averaging 11.4 DraftKings points per game. He has done a great job running the offense when Brunson is on the bench. Alvarado has the third-highest projected usage rate in this game at 23.6%. He likely will not play much, but he is very productive when he is on the floor.
- Luke Kornet ($1,600): Kornet has only made 1 field goal in his last 5 games but has still been a cheap fantasy asset with his peripherals. He has the highest projected points/salary in this game and is projected to play around 10 minutes. Kornet also has double-digit DraftKings points upside.
- Harrison Barnes ($1,200): Barnes’ playing time has fluctuated ironically every other game since the start of the Thunder series. If you want to dive into the trend, he will be in line to play double-digit minutes tonight. He is still a difficult click, shooting just 20% from the field in the last 9 games.
- Jordan Clarkson ($1,000): Clarkson did not touch the floor in Game 2 after playing 6 minutes in the first game. He has upside due to his high-usage rate but is still a high-risk option. Our NBA Model has Clarkson projected for 6 minutes, but he is only a reasonable option in large-field tournaments.
- Carter Bryant ($1,000): Bryant could be utilized if the Spurs are looking to mix up their game plan and add extra juice off the bench. He has only played 7 total minutes this series after averaging 8.1 minutes per game against the Thunder. Similar to Clarkson, he is another min-priced, high-risk option.
Pictured: Karl-Anthony Towns, Victor Wembanyama
Photo Credit: Imagn
