The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features an 11-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Things have not been going well for the Celtics recently, who were embarrassed on national TV by the Raptors yesterday and have lost five of their past seven games. Their poor play has forced Brad Stevens to lean heavily on Kyrie Irving, who had logged at least 40.5 minutes in two straight games prior to yesterday’s blowout. Backup point guards Terry Rozier and Brad Wanamaker are both questionable for today’s contest vs. the Blazers, so Irving could be looking at another massive workload.
Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Boston Celtics guard Kyrie Irving (11), Toronto Raptors guard Fred VanVleet (23) and forward Kawhi Leonard (2).
Irving is unquestionably able to do a lot of damage given that much playing time. He’s averaged 1.36 DraftKings points per minute this season, which trails only Steph Curry at the point guard position. He’s also priced at a discount at $9,100 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 86%.
Value
Elfrid Payton returned from a length injury absence recently and has not wasted any time making a fantasy impact. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past three games and has averaged 1.10 DraftKings points per minute. He’s in an excellent spot today vs. the Lakers, who have played at the fourth fastest pace this season, and his $5,200 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain rating of 93%.
Fast Break
DeMarcus Cousins will get the night off for the Warriors, which makes Steph Curry an interesting target. He’s seen a team-high usage bump of +6.2% with Cousins off the floor since he returned to the lineup on January 18th, resulting in an average of 1.34 FanDuel points per minute. He’s a slightly better value on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 77%.
The Timberwolves point guard situation will be an important one to monitor before lineup lock. They have an elite matchup vs. the Atlanta Hawks, who have been one of the worst teams in the league against opposing point guards this season. Starting point guard Jeff Teague has averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute over the past month but is currently questionable with a knee injury. If he can’t go, look for Tyus Jones to start and command the majority of the minutes. He scored 36.75 DraftKings points in place of Teague in their most recent contest.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden’s streak of consecutive 30-point games finally came to an end on Monday. He ultimately rattled of 32 straight with at least 30 points, which was the second longest streak in the history of the NBA. Only legendary stat machine Wilt Chamberlain had a longer streak, eclipsing 30 points in a ridiculous 65 straight contests.
Harden has also seen his fantasy value wane recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of -2.81 over his past 10 games. It’s easy to paint a pessimistic picture for Harden with the team back at full strength, but his underlying metrics still suggest he’s carrying an incomparable workload on a night-to-night basis.
He’s posted an average usage rate of 41.8% over his past six games but has averaged just 5.3 rebounds and 4.2 assists per game over that time frame. If he can improve upon his peripherals moving forward, he still appears to offer the same upside that he has for most of the season. His salary has decreased by a whopping -$2,400 over the past month on DraftKings, making this an excellent opportunity to buy low on him.
Value
What does Bogdan Bogdanovic have to do to get some respect? He remains criminally underpriced on DraftKings at $4,900 despite the fact that he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past seven games. He’s averaged 1.00 DraftKings points per minute this season and is currently projected for 28.3 minutes in our NBA Models.
Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Sacramento Kings guard Bogdan Bogdanovic (8), guard Buddy Hield (24) .
Fast Break
The Nets are in one of the best spots of the day vs. the Washington Wizards, and their resulting implied team total of 121.5 ranks second on the slate. Joe Harris is a cheap way to get some exposure to them on DraftKings, where his $4,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.83 over his past 10 games and has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past seven contests.
You could also opt to pay up for D’Angelo Russell. He’s increased his fantasy production to 1.31 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and has played approximately 35.5 minutes in each of his past two contests. He has huge upside given the matchup.
Delon Wright deserves some consideration on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 97%. He hasn’t been playing a ton of minutes recently but has made up for it by averaging 0.88 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He has a strong matchup vs. the Bulls, who rank just 24th in defensive efficiency this season.
Small Forward
Stud
The Lakers’ chances of making the playoffs grow slimmer after each loss, and they’re now significant underdogs to continue playing in the postseason. That’s a huge change for LeBron James, who has made the NBA Finals in eight straight years. Head coach Luke Walton has decided that playing LeBron heavy minutes is his best chance of making the playoffs, and that has resulted in some excellent value for DFS players. LeBron has logged at least 38.5 in each of his past four games and has averaged 65.6 DraftKings points over that time frame.
Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: LeBron James
He’s in an excellent spot today vs. the New Orleans Pelicans, who have been a dumpster fire defensively this season. The Lakers’ resulting implied team total of 122.5 points ranks first on the slate, and LeBron has scored at least 64.75 DraftKings points in his past three games with a comparable implied team total (per the Trends tool). He’s also scored at least 64.75 DraftKings points in his first two games vs. the Pelicans this season, giving him the safest floor on today’s slate.
Value
The Grizzlies are extremely thin at power forward right now, with Jaren Jackson Jr. and Ivan Rabb both unlikely to play today vs. the Bulls. That leaves Bruno Cabocolo to handle the majority of the minutes at the position, and he’s averaged a respectable 0.77 FanDuel points per minute this season. He doesn’t offer much upside, but he’s hard to ignore at just $3,600 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
The small forward position is loaded on today’s slate. LeBron is the top target for cash games, but Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant make for appealing pivots in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). Giannis is actually slightly cheaper than LeBron on DraftKings despite the fact that he’s averaged a ridiculous 1.87 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s in a great spot vs. the Sacramento Kings, who have played at the third fastest pace this season.
Durant is the best pure value among the high-priced small forwards on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 61%. He hasn’t seen as big of a boost in usage as Curry with Cousins off the floor but led the team with 47.8 FanDuel points with Cousins out of the lineup in the final game before the All-Star break.
Nicolas Batum has quietly been playing his best basketball of the season recently. He’s logged at least 37 minutes in each of his past three games and has averaged 34.25 DraftKings points in those contests. He remains underpriced at $4,700 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Power Forward
Stud
Lauri Markkanen has been absolutely incredible recently. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +12.09 over his past 10 games on DraftKings and has scored at least 46.0 DraftKings points in each of his past five. He’s also posted a perfect 100% Consistency Rating over the past month and has increased his production to 1.36 DraftKings points per minute over that time frame.
Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Chicago Bulls forward Lauri Markkanen (24).
That said, he’s in a brutal spot today vs. the Memphis Grizzlies. They’re not exactly a defense powerhouse anymore, but they’re still playing at the slowest pace in the league. Chicago’s resulting implied team total of 107.0 points is tied for the lowest mark on the slate. Markkanen still seems underpriced on DraftKings at $8,600, but he’s best suited as a GPP pivot.
Value
Derrick Favors is the rare player who is capable of providing fantasy value in limited minutes. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +3.41 over his past 10 games despite rarely seeing more than 25 minutes of playing time. He’s done it by averaging 1.18 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s in a wonderful spot today vs. the Los Angeles Clippers. They’ve been crushed by opposing big men all season, giving Favors an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.66. He’s a massive value at $4,600 given his Bargain Rating of 98%.
Fast Break
Is it time to buy low on Anthony Davis? He’s been priced down to just $7,200 on DraftKings and has maintained an elite average of 1.55 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s currently projected for 24.5 minutes in our NBA Models, which should be enough for him to return value at his current salary.
Don’t look now, but Dirk Nowitzki has played at least 25 minutes in each of his past two games. He’s obviously not the same player that he was in his prime, but he’s still averaged 0.82 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s worth considering at just $3,700.
Center
Stud
Jonas Valanciunas is loving life in Memphis right now. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his first four games with the team and has averaged a stout 1.57 DraftKings points per minute. He’s posted a usage rate of at least 31.6% in all four contests and should see a healthy amount of playing time for the shorthanded Grizzlies. Valanciunas is also in an elite spot vs. the Bulls, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.39 on DraftKings. Don’t let his elevated salary scare you away.
Value
Thomas Bryant is coming off a monster game in his last outing, scoring 54.4 FanDuel points in 31 minutes. There’s no guarantee he’ll play that much today, but he’s still a strong target at just $4,200 on FanDuel. He’s averaged 1.25 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and his current price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%.
Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Washington Wizards center Thomas Bryant (13).
Fast Break
Kevon Looney will likely draw the start for the resting Cousins, and he’s priced at or near the minimum across the industry on today’s slate. He’s averaged 0.99 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, making him an excellent punt play vs. the Heat.
Brook Lopez has been an awesome value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +6.39 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. He’s also seen a price decrease of -$500 over that time frame, and his current $4,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. He has an excellent matchup today vs. the Kings, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.35, making him one of the strongest targets at the position on DraftKings.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured: Rockets G James Harden
Photo Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
