The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a three-game slate starting at 8 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Kyle Lowry has seen a noticeable drop is usage after the addition of Kawhi Leonard in the offseason, and that drop has become even more pronounced recently. Lowry has posted a usage rate of just 17.3% over his past 10 games, which is a far cry from his average of 23.7% as a member of the Raptors. The fact that one of those games also came with Leonard out of the lineup is concerning, and Lowry has posted an average Plus/Minus of -4.17 on DraftKings over his past 10 games overall.
It all culminated in a disastrous 17.25 DraftKings points in his most recent game, marking the first time in his career that failed to score a point when playing at least 30 minutes.
That said, it might be time to consider buying low on Lowry. His salary has decreased by $1,200 over the past month on DraftKings, and the Raptors’ implied team total of 114.75 ranks second on the slate. He also seems primed for some shooting regression after making just 36.0% of his shots from the field and 28.8% of his shots from 3-point range over the past 10 games.
Value
Derrick White saw 30 minutes of playing time in his last contest, which could make him a nice target against the Suns, who rank just 29th in defensive efficiency this season. The Spurs’ implied team total of 115.5 also represents an increase of more than five points when compared to their season average (110.3).
White is very affordable at $3,800 on DraftKings and has averaged 0.74 fantasy points per minute this season.
Fast Break
Damian Lillard gets his second matchup of the season against the Rockets after struggling to just 37.25 DraftKings points in their first of the season. That said, he played just 27.5 minutes in a blowout win and did make 8-of-10 shot attempts from the field. He averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.58 over three matchups against the Rockets last season and owns the highest ceiling projection at the position on FanDuel.
Lou Williams left Monday’s game early with a hamstring injury and could potentially sit on the second leg of a back-to-back. His absence should result in a few extra minutes for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who scored 31.5 DraftKings points in 33.5 minutes on Monday. He normally plays 28 or fewer minutes, so the extra playing time makes him appealing at his current salary.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden is the lone super-stud available on this slate, which should make him one of the highest-owned players. He doesn’t offer the same ceiling with Chris Paul back in the lineup, but Harden has scored at least 50.75 DraftKings points in seven of his past eight games. He missed the Rockets’ first game of the season against the Blazers, but he did average 57.17 DraftKings points per game in three meetings against the Blazers last season (per our Trends tool).
Value
Eric Gordon could also be worth consideration for the Rockets. He’s been priced down to $4,500 on DraftKings, which represents a decrease of $800 over the past month. He’s still projected for 32 minutes in our NBA Models, and Gordon has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.79 with a comparable minute projection and salary as a member of the Rockets.
Fast Break
If Lou Williams is active for the Clippers, he could be an interesting target on FanDuel. He’s priced at $5,200, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 81%, and he could see depressed ownership as a result of the questionable tag. He also leads the position with 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel.
DeMar DeRozan has posted a Plus/Minus of at least +10.90 in each of his past three games on FanDuel and has one of the best matchups on the slate against the Suns. That said, his salary has increased by a significant margin in anticipation of this matchup, and there’s no guarantee that the Suns can keep this game competitive: They’re 12.5-point underdogs as of writing (see live odds here).
Small Forward
Stud
Kawhi Leonard looks like one of the top targets of the day on DraftKings, where his $9,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Toronto Raptors forward Kawhi Leonard (2).
Unlike Lowry, Leonard has been a nice value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +3.77 over his past nine games. He leads the position with 11 Pro Trends on DraftKings, and his average of 1.34 DraftKings points per minute over the past month is tied for the fourth-highest mark on the slate.
Value
Mikal Bridges has seen a nice bump in playing time recently, which is not all that surprising since the Suns are clearly playing for the future at this point. He hasn’t been a great producer on a per-minute basis, averaging just 0.69 FanDuel points per minute this season, but he has posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five games.
Fast Break
Williams’ leads the Clippers with a usage rate of 31.3%, so his absence would give the rest of his teammates a nice boost in value. That includes Danilo Gallinari, who has averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute with Williams off the floor this season. He has a difficult matchup against the Raptors but is simply underpriced if Williams is ultimately ruled out.
Rudy Gay has scored at least 45.4 FanDuel points in two of his past three games and could see a few additional minutes in Tuesday’s contest with Davis Bertans expected to miss the game for personal reasons. He’s averaged 1.03 FanDuel points per minute this season, and his $6,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 68%.
Power Forward
Stud
The Spurs have decided to reduce LaMarcus Aldridge’s workload recently, which has unsurprisingly hurt his fantasy production. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of -1.98 on FanDuel over his past 10 games. He’s projected for just 30.5 minutes on this slate, but that could be enough for him to return value given his matchup against the Suns. They’ve been beat up by opposing big men this season, giving Aldridge an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.98.
Value
Josh Jackson is coming off his best game of the season, scoring 39.8 FanDuel points in 31 minutes. He could possibly lose some playing time as T.J. Warren makes his way back from injury, but Jackson has averaged 1.04 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He can theoretically lose a few minutes and still be able to return value at his current salary.
Fast Break
The Clippers feature a pair of PF options who deserve consideration: Tobias Harris and Montrezl Harrell.
Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tobias Harris
Harris is the better bet in terms of minutes — he’s projected for a position-high 35.5 — but Harrell might offer the superior ceiling. He’s played the majority of his minutes next to Williams this season, so he has the potential to see a major boost in usage if Williams is out of the lineup.
P.J. Tucker is coming off a whopping 39 minutes in his last contest but still managed just 15.0 DraftKings points. Still, it’s impossible to ignore someone with that much playing time potential at just $4,000 on DraftKings.
Center
Stud
Clint Capela has been an excellent source of value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +8.75 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. He’s seen a salary increase of +$800 over that time frame, but his current $7,700 salary still comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. He’s averaged 1.27 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and is projected for a position-high 35.5 minutes in our NBA Models.
Value
Boban Marjanovic recently replaced Marcin Gortat in the Clippers’ starting lineup and has averaged 1.49 DraftKings points per minute this season. He likely wont play more than 16-18 minutes, but he shouldn’t need to play more than that to potentially return value at his minimal salary.
Fast Break
Jusuf Nurkic is another center who looks like an excellent value on DraftKings, where his $7,500 salary comes with a Bargain rating of 99%. He’s averaged 1.35 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and could potentially see a few extra minutes to combat the size of Capela on the interior. Nurkic has fared very well against the Rockets over the past two seasons, owning an average Plus/Minus of +7.08.
Jakob Poeltl is an interesting boom-or-bust option: He’s scored at least 31.9 FanDuel points in two of his past four games and 15.6 FanDuel points or less in the other two. He could see a few additional minutes with Bertans likely out of the lineup and also stands to benefit if this game turns into a blowout.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured above: Jusuf Nurkic
Photo credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
