The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a six-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Kemba Walker has been slightly disappointing recently from a fantasy perspective, posting a negative Plus/Minus in five of his past seven games on DraftKings. That said, his salary has decreased by -$1,200 over the past month, and his current $8,100 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%. Kemba has crushed with a comparable salary this season, averaging a Plus/Minus of +3.21 over 36 contests (per the Trends tool).
He also has a solid matchup vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves, who are merely tied for 23rd in defensive efficiency this season. The result is an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.21.
Value
The Jazz are in one of the best spots of the day vs. the Atlanta Hawks. Atlanta has played at the second-fastest pace this season, and Utah’s implied team total of 117.0 represents a massive increase when compared to their season average (110.6).
That makes Ricky Rubio a strong target at just $5,200 on DraftKings. He’s averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past four games. He leads the position with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.84 on DraftKings, and his current price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Fast Break
The Suns have been decimated by injuries recently, and they’ll be without Tyler Johnson, Kelly Oubre, and T.J. Warren on today’s slate. That should result in a bump in playing time for De’Anthony Melton, who has averaged a respectable 0.88 FanDuel points per minute this season. He’s priced at just $3,600 on FanDuel, so he doesn’t need much playing time to pay off his current salary.
Credit: Jennifer Stewart-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Phoenix Suns guard De’Anthony Melton (14).
Jeff Teague and Derrick Rose are expected to miss the rest of the season, which means that Tyus Jones is locked in as the Timberwolves’ starting point guard. He has historically thrived in that role, averaging 28.38 FanDuel points when projected for at least 28 minutes. He’s underpriced at $5,300 on FanDuel.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Luka Doncic has been impressive as a rookie, averaging a ridiculous 21.1 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 5.8 assists per game at just 19 years old. He’s been even better since the All-Star break, averaging 23.2 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 6.6 assists per game, resulting in an average of 45.73 DraftKings points.
He’s in a nice spot today vs. the Sacramento Kings. They’ve played at the second fastest pace this season, giving Doncic an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.21 on DraftKings. His 13 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position on DraftKings, and his $8,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Value
The Pistons are another team with a strong matchup today. They’re taking on the Phoenix Suns, who rank 29th in defensive efficiency this season.
That makes Luke Kennard an interesting value option. His salary has decreased by a significant amount across the industry over the past week or so, but he’s still projected for a healthy 29.0 minutes in our NBA Models. He’s averaged 0.77 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and that combination of playing time and production makes him appealing at $4,300.
Fast Break
Andrew Wiggins should see a boost in value with both Teague and Rose out of the lineup. He’s seen a usage bump of +4.0% with both players off the court since the Jimmy Butler trade, resulting in an average of 0.93 DraftKings points per minute. He’s coming off 40.5 DraftKings points in his last game, so he has upside at just $5,800.
The Hornets have been shorthanded recently, and Nicolas Batum has been one of the biggest beneficiaries. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.78 over his past 10 games, yet his salary remains reasonable at $5,000 on DraftKings. He’s in a decent spot vs. the Timberwolves, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.26.
Small Forward
Stud
Kevin Durant stands out in his own tier at the SF position on today’s slate, but he’s been a terrible fantasy asset recently. He’s posted a Consistency Rating of just 55% over the past month, and his fantasy production has fallen to just 1.06 FanDuel points per minute. That’s almost unheard of for someone as talented as Durant.
That said, this is still Durant; he’s going to turn things around eventually. When he does, he’s going to be a really nice value at $9,300 on FanDuel. His salary has decreased by -$1,100 over the past month, and Durant has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.44 with a comparable salary as a member of the Warriors. He should see reduced ownership given his recent play, which makes him an interesting target for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Value
Will Barton is one of the best pure values at the position on FanDuel, where his $5,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%. He’s been a strong option recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.02 over his past 10 games, and the Nuggets are in one of the best spots of the day vs. the Washington Wizards. They play at one of the fastest paces in the league, and the Nuggets’ resulting implied team total of 119.25 is tied for first on the slate.
Fast Break
On the other side of the same matchup, Trevor Ariza is not expected to suit up tonight due to a groin injury. That makes Troy Brown an interesting option at the absolute minimum on FanDuel.
He’s been a strong producer recently, averaging 0.95 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he has the potential to play heavy minutes if Ariza is ultimately ruled out. He’s one of the best bargains of the day.
Tyreke Evans is another player who should benefit from an injury on today’s slate. The Pacers will be without Darren Collison, which should give Evans a slight boost in playing time. He’s averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute this season, and his $3,500 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Power Forward
Stud
Blake Griffin is expected to rejoin the Pistons’ lineup after getting the night off on Monday vs. the Raptors. He’s in a great spot vs. the Phoenix Suns, who have been the worst rebounding team in the league this season. It gives Griffin an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.50 on DraftKings, which is one of the better marks at the position.
Credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Detroit Pistons forward Blake Griffin (23).
He’s priced as cheap as he’s been all season at $7,800 on DraftKings, and his current price tag results in a Bargain Rating of 83%. This is an excellent time to buy low on the talented big man.
Value
Josh Jackson figures to be one of the biggest beneficiaries from the injury to Kelly Oubre, which will unfortunately cost him the rest of the season. Jackson has played at least 32 minutes in each of his past two games and has averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute this season, and that combination makes him an elite target at $4,800 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Domantas Sabonis continues to produce at an elite level, albeit in limited minutes. He’s averaged 1.30 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, which is one of the top marks at the position on today’s slate. He has big upside in a pace-up matchup vs. the Warriors.
Marvin Williams has seen a reduction in minutes recently, but that could change today with Michael Kidd-Gilchrist out of the lineup. He’s currently projected for 29.5 minutes in our NBA Models, which makes him a strong option at $4,500 on DraftKings.
Center
Stud
Andre Drummond has posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.37 over his past 10 games and remains massively underpriced at $8,700 on DraftKings. It results in a Bargain Rating of 99% in an elite matchup vs. the Suns. His Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.28 ranks first on the slate, as does his 13 Pro Trends. He’s a strong target in all formats.
Value
Dewayne Dedmon has increased his fantasy production to 1.26 FanDuel points per minute over the past month has the potential to play big minutes today vs. the Jazz. They play a traditional center in Rudy Gobert, and Dedmon should be his primary defender for most of the game. He’s a nice value at $5,600 on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 70%.
Fast Break
Karl-Anthony Towns is coming off 59.25 DraftKings points in his last game and has averaged 1.82 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He should benefit from the absence of Teague and Rose, and he’s averaged 52.79 DraftKings points with both players out of the lineup this season.
DeMarcus Cousins has posted a positive Plus/Minus in eight of his past 10 games on DraftKings, and his $6,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. He’s in a decent spot vs. the Pacers, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.94.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured: Golden State Warriors F Kevin Durant (35)
Photo Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
