The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a three-game slate starting at 6 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Kemba Walker has cooled off after a torrid start to the season, posting an average Plus/Minus of -4.91 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. That said, his salary has decreased by $1,900 over that time, which could make him a nice buy-low option against the Knicks, who rank just 27th in defensive efficiency. The Hornets’ implied team total of 115.0 ranks second on the slate.
Value
If you want to go cheaper at PG, targeting the Hornets’ backup PG could make some sense. Tony Parker has been excellent in limited minutes this season, averaging 0.98 FanDuel points per minute. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three of his past four games and has scored at least 36.3 FanDuel points in two of them. He’s priced at $3,600 on FanDuel with a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Fast Break
Ricky Rubio has one of the best matchups of the day against the Spurs, who rank 28th in defensive efficiency this season, and Rubio owns an Opponent Plus/Minus +3.29. He also looks like an excellent value on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 98%.
Emmanuel Mudiay is coming off a disappointing game on Saturday but had posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his three prior games on FanDuel. He played at least 34 minutes in all three of those contests, so it’s not surprising he was successful given his average of 0.91 FanDuel points per minute. He’s worth some consideration on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 81%.
Shooting Guard
Stud
DeMar DeRozan has been excellent against the Lakers this season — he’s averaged 59.5 FanDuel points over four games — but he’s been pretty mediocre against the rest of the league. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of -1.31 and a Consistency Rating of just 27.3% in games against teams that don’t wear purple and gold (per our Trends tool).
He’s taking on the Jazz today, and DeRozan managed just 29.9 FanDuel points in his first meeting with them this season. They haven’t been the same force defensively as they were last season, but the Spurs’ implied team total of 106.75 is still the lowest mark on the slate by a sizable margin.
DeRozan also owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.30, which makes him tough to roster.
Value
The Hornets’ rotation on the wing could be a big factor. Nicolas Batum and Jeremy Lamb are the two starters, but both saw reduced minutes in their last game. That said, both options have some appeal on Sunday.
Batum has seen a price decrease of $800 on DraftKings over the past month but did score 42.25 DraftKings points two games ago. His current $5,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%. Lamb has averaged 1.03 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and has posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.75 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. Both players are expected to return to their normal workloads on Sunday, with each projected for at least 31 minutes in our NBA Models.
If you want to go contrarian, you could target Malik Monk instead. He saw a slight bump in playing time in the Hornets’ last game and has averaged 0.91 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s priced at $3,300 and is projected for just 2-4% ownership.
Fast Break
Tim Hardaway Jr. has one of the best individual matchups at the position as evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.41 on DraftKings. He’s coming off just 22.5 minutes in his past game but has been one of the only constants in the Knicks’ rotation all season. He’s priced at $6,700 on DraftKings, giving him a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Donovan Mitchell has failed to improve on his success as a rookie, posting an average Plus/Minus of -3.46 through his first 22 games this season. That said, he does have a nice matchup against the Spurs, and his current $7,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Small Forward
Studs
The SF position is the most talent-rich on this slate. It features the two most expensive players across the industry: Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kawhi Leonard. DeRozan also has SF eligibility on DraftKings.
Giannis has been a monster for most of the season, and his average of 1.66 DraftKings points per minute is the top mark on the slate by a landslide. That said, he does have a tough matchup against the Raptors. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +0.41, and the Bucks’ implied team total of 113.5 is significantly lower than their season average (120.0). Still, Giannis owns the top median, ceiling and floor projections in our NBA Models — and frankly, it’s not even that close — and his current $11,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
If he puts up his best game, you could be drawing dead if he’s not in your lineup.
Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kawhi Leonard
Leonard has been the better value of the two recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.15 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. He’s also in a better spot against the Bucks, who have played at the fourth-fastest pace this season. He’s seemed to save his best for big games this season, and Sunday’s contest against the Bucks would certainly qualify.
Value
It’s tough to pay too far down at SF on Sunday, particularly on FanDuel. That said, Jae Crowder could be worth considering due his sheer volume of minutes. He’s currently projected for 29.5 and has averaged 0.83 FanDuel points per minute this season.
Fast Break
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist rarely plays big minutes but has averaged 1.00 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s priced at $3,800 on DraftKings, which makes him an interesting punt play on this slate.
Power Forward
Stud
LaMarcus Aldridge is the highest-priced PF on FanDuel, but he’s been far from a stud recently. Gregg Popovich has cut way back on Aldridge’s playing time, resulting in 30.5 minutes or less in six of his past eight games. He’s still averaged 1.12 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, but it’s hard to pay up for him given such a low minute floor. He’s much more appealing on DraftKings, where his $7,300 salary results in a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Value
Kevin Knox is a boom-or-bust type of option. His playing time has fluctuated over the past week or so, playing as many as 36.5 minutes or as few as 20. That said, the Knicks are clearly playing for the future at this point, so it seems likely that his playing time will increase as the season progresses. He’s particularly appealing on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 98%.
Fast Break
Pascal Siakam does a little bit of everything for the Raptors, resulting in an average of 1.01 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s coming off 36 minutes in their last game, which makes him an interesting target across the industry.
Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Davis Bertans
Davis Bertans could be an interesting target with Dante Cunningham ruled out. Bertans is an elite shooter for his size, which is a big reason why he’s averaged 0.84 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He should see some extra minutes, which makes him appealing at $3,600 on DraftKings.
Center
Stud
Rudy Gobert is the highest priced center by a comfortable margin on this slate, but he’s much more appealing on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 99%. He’s averaged 1.27 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and has a solid matchup against the Spurs. His salary has increased by a sizable margin over the past 10 games, but he’s still managed to return value in four of his past five contests.
Value
Jonas Valanciunas crushed in two straight games, and the fact that he’s coming off more than 26 minutes in his last contest is encouraging for his fantasy prospects. He’s always been extremely effective on a per-minute basis and is averaging 1.33 FanDuel points per minute in 2018. He’s priced at a discount on FanDuel, where his $5,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%.
Fast Break
Enes Kanter is very similar to Valanciunas in terms of his per-minute productivity and likely workload. That said, Kanter is projected for much lower ownership, which makes sense considering his higher salary. Kanter has big upside every time he takes the court, which makes him appealing for guaranteed prize pools.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured above: Giannis Antetokounmpo
Photo credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
