The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features an eight-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Mike Conley was limited to 25.5 minutes in a blowout loss to the Spurs on Saturday, which could make him an interesting buy-low candidate. He’s in one of the best spots of the day against the Pelicans, who rank sixth in pace and are tied for 26th in defensive efficiency this season. The Grizzlies’ implied team total of 104.75 is tied for the lowest mark on the slate but still represents an increase of roughly 3.5 points when compared to their season average (101.2). They’ve also struggled against PGs, giving Conley an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.52 on DraftKings.
Value
Shabazz Napier has been a nice source of value recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past five games on DraftKings, and could see a larger role on Monday for the shorthanded Nets. They’re going to be without Joe Harris, DeMarre Carroll and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, which leaves them pretty thin on the wing.
Napier has averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute this season and looks like a massive value at $3,400.
Fast Break
De’Aaron Fox has posted a negative Plus/Minus in each of his past three games, causing his salary to drop to $6,900 on DraftKings, which results in a Bargain Rating of 99%. Fox has also averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.40 with a comparable salary this season (per our Trends tool). His 11 Pro Trends are also tied for the most at the position.
Damian Lillard leads the position with 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel and has one of the best matchups of the day against the Knicks. They rank 29th in defensive efficiency this season, and opposing PG Emmanuel Mudiay ranks just 73rd out of 95 qualifying PGs in terms of Defensive Real Plus/Minus (DRPM).
Shooting Guard
Stud
It turns out that James Harden is mortal after all. He still managed to drop 38 points in his most recent contest, extending his streak of games with at least 35 points to 10, but seven turnovers and a lack of peripherals resulted in a negative Plus/Minus on DraftKings for the first time in nearly a month.
Credit: Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: James Harden (13)
That said, his fantasy outlook remains extremely rosy. He posted a ridiculous 57.8% usage rate (!) in his most recent contest but ultimately shot just 13-of-35 from the field. It’s hard to envision a scenario in which he scores fewer fantasy points than he did in his last game, even in a tough matchup against the Nuggets. His price has come down slightly on DraftKings, giving him a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Value
Bogdan Bogdanovic has been wonderful for the Kings virtually all season, resulting in an average of 1.01 DraftKings points per minute. He’s played well over his past 10 games, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.16, and has posted a Plus/Minus of at least +10.91 in three of his past four games. His current $5,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%, making him one of the best pure values of the day on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Rudy Gay has been ruled out for the Spurs, which increases the appeal for DeMar DeRozan. He’s seen a team-high usage bump of +3.3% with Gay off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.25 FanDuel points per minute. He’s an appealing pivot off of Harden on FanDuel, where his $8,300 salary makes him $4,600 cheaper.
Eric Bledsoe has been a major disappointment over his past 10 games, posting an average Plus/Minus of -3.56, but it’s impossible not to consider him at $5,900. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.93 and a Consistency Rating of 77.8% with a comparable salary this season, and his current price tag results in a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Small Forward
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo is priced in his own tier at SF, but you could make a strong case that he’s too expensive. For starters, he hasn’t been a particularly good value at his current salary this season, averaging a Plus/Minus of -1.36 on DraftKings with a comparable price tag.
He also has a difficult matchup against the Jazz, who currently rank fifth in defensive efficiency. The Bucks’ resulting implied team total of 113.75 represents a significant decrease when compared to their regular season average (117.7). He could make some sense as a contrarian target in guaranteed prize pools — he’s projected for only 9-12% ownership on DraftKings — but there are strong options for cash games.
Value
On the other side of the same matchup, Jae Crowder could be worth some consideration on FanDuel at $4,400. He’s averaged 0.87 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and has averaged 28.9 FanDuel points over his past three games.
Fast Break
Jakob Poeltl entered the starting lineup for the Spurs the last time that Gay was inactive, but Davis Bertans was the biggest beneficiary. He logged more than 30 minutes off the bench, resulting in 27.25 DraftKings points. He’s one of the best shooters in the league among big men, making 47.5% of his shots from 3-point range this season. He’s currently projected for 27.5 minutes in our NBA Models, which gives him appeal as a punt option.
Kyle Anderson continues to be underpriced on DraftKings, where his $5,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. He’s been an excellent source of value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +7.45 over his past 10 games, and is in an excellent spot against the Pelicans. Dillon Brooks being out of the lineup should also solidify a big workload for Anderson despite the recent addition of Justin Holiday.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis was limited to only 28.5 minutes in his most recent contest, but that didn’t stop him from doing some serious damage against the Cavaliers. He tallied 20 points, 10 rebounds, three assists, four steals and two blocks, resulting in 50.0 DraftKings points. That ultimately wasn’t enough for him to pay off his massive salary, but his per-minute productivity is still encouraging for his prospects moving forward.
That said, he’s in a brutal spot against the Grizzlies, who have been arguably the worst team to target in fantasy this season. They’ve played at the slowest pace in the league by a significant margin while also ranking sixth in defensive efficiency. The Pelicans’ resulting implied team total of 109.75 represents a massive decrease when compared to their season average (116.7). Davis has also struggled against the the Grizzlies over the past four seasons, posting an average Plus/Minus of -3.54 on DraftKings.
Value
The Celtics own a pair of appealing PF targets on FanDuel. Both Jayson Tatum and Marcus Morris own a Bargain Rating of at least 95%, the top two marks at the position.
Tatum owns a slightly safer floor, while Morris might be the more appealing value at $5,000. Morris also stands to be the biggest beneficiary if Kyrie Irving is unable to suit up: He’s seen a team-high usage bump of +4.4% with Irving off the court this season.
Fast Break
Aaron Gordon has seen a pretty significant price decrease across the industry over the past month, which could make him an appealing buy-low target against the Kings. It’s an extreme pace-up spot, resulting in a pace differential of +6.3, and the Magic’s implied team total of 108.0 represents a significant increase to their season average (103.4).
Credit: John Glaser-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: LaMarcus Aldridge
Blake Griffin and LaMarcus Aldridge are squaring off against each other in Detroit, and both players could be worth some consideration on DraftKings. Griffin leads the position with 14 Pro Trends, while Aldridge owns an excellent Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.77 and has increased his production to 1.25 DraftKings points per minute. Both players are also underpriced, owning a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Center
Studs
Nikola Vucevic is another member of the Magic who should benefit from the pace up spot against the Kings. They’ve also struggled mightily against opposing centers this season, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.49 on FanDuel. He ranks second at the position with 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel, and his Bargain Rating of 60% is one of the top marks among high-priced centers.
On DraftKings, Jusuf Nurkic looks like a steal at $8,000 against the Knicks. He’s been fantastic recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +8.00 over his past 10 games, and his current salary results in a Bargain Rating of 99%. He’s averaged an elite 1.40 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and the Knicks have struggled against opposing men for the majority of the season.
Value
Mitchell Robinson has been ruled out for the Knicks, so Enes Kanter could see a slight bump in playing time. He’s dominated over his past two games, scoring 83.25 DraftKings points in just 47 minutes. He’s been priced down to $5,300 on DraftKings, and he can do some serious damage at that price tag.
Fast Break
DeAndre Jordan is in an excellent spot against the Lakers, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.59 on DraftKings. He’s been priced down to $6,100 and has posted an average Plus/Minus of +1.51 with a comparable salary this season.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured: Celtics forwards Marcus Morris (13) and Jayson Tatum (0)
Photo Credit: Jennifer Stewart-USA TODAY Sports
