NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Saturday, Nov. 26): Jalen Green is Breaking Out

Saturday features a three-game slate starting at 8 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock. Use our FanDuel promo to get three months of free NBA League Pass. 

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

Jalen Green has put together a string of impressive performances of late. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in six of his past eight games, and he racked up 42.25 DraftKings points Friday vs. the Hawks. Green also posted a usage rate of 31.2% in that contest, which was his third-highest mark of the season.

Green could see another spike in usage Saturday vs. the Thunder. We’re still waiting on their official injury report, but Alperen Sengun missed Friday’s contest with a groin injury. Eric Gordon could also rest on the second leg of a back-to-back, which would open up some additional minutes and shots in the backcourt. The Thunder rank just 20th in defensive efficiency this season, so it’s a solid matchup as well.

Value

Tre Jones has struggled to provide value for the Spurs recently, but he had a bounce-back performance Friday vs. the Lakers. He racked up 32.0 DraftKings points across 33.3 minutes, and he’ll face the same Lakers’ squad again on Saturday. They’ve played at the second-fastest pace in the league this season, and the total on this game sits at 232.5 points.

Jones is projected for a similar workload in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute this season. As long as he gets around 30 minutes, he’s a good bet to pay off his current price tag.

Fast Break

Chris Paul has missed the past eight games for the Suns, and his status for Saturday is currently unknown. If he’s ruled out again, Cameron Payne would become one of the strongest options at the position on FanDuel. He’s coming off a double-double with 16 points and 10 assists in his last game, and he’s increased his production to 1.09 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. His $6,700 price tag also comes with a Bargain Rating of 91%.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues to absolutely dominate for the Thunder. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.91 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, and while he’s started to get a bit more expensive, he’s still reasonable at $10,600. He’s also in a dream spot vs. the Rockets, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +7.88.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

Like Payne, Devin Booker is another player who would benefit from the continued absence of CP3. His usage rate has actually decreased in games without Paul this season, which is not surprising since Payne is a higher-usage player. However, he’s made up for it with an improved assist rate. He’s increased his assist rate by +3.6%, resulting in an average of 1.33 DraftKings points per minute.

This slate is chock-full of good fantasy games – all three have a total of at least 231.5 points – but the Suns have arguably the highest offensive potential. They lead the slate with an implied team total of 119.75 points, and the Jazz rank dead last in defensive efficiency over their past five games.

Value

Collin Sexton has a wide range of outcomes on this slate. His minutes have been inconsistent all season, even with Mike Conley out of the lineup recently. He played 35.1 minutes two games ago vs. the Pistons, but that figure decreased to 24.2 minutes in his last outing.

That said, Sexton is priced at a point where he can still provide value even if he doesn’t hit his minute’s ceiling. He’s priced at just $4,900 on DraftKings, and he’s averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute. That means he should be able to return value in around 25 minutes, and he has an excellent ceiling if he plays more than 30.

Fast Break

SGA has deservedly gotten most of the attention for the Thunder this season, but Lu Dort has also been a solid option of late. He’s coming off just 21.0 FanDuel points in his last outing, but he posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his prior five games. Overall, Dort has averaged 0.86 FanDuel points per minute this season, and he’s projected for just under 32 minutes in our NBA Models. He’s a strong choice on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 85%.

Devin Vassell has been one of the Spurs’ primary scoring threats this season, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games. He’s another elite value on FanDuel.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Sticking with the Spurs, it has not been a good stretch for Keldon Johnson of late. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in six straight games, including just 5.75 DraftKings points across 16.1 minutes two games ago. His minutes returned to normal in his last contest, but he shot a paltry 6-23 from the field. Johnson has now shot just 17-67 from the field over his past four games, and he’s just 3-27 from 3-point range.

That’s caused his price tag to crater across the industry, making him a prime buy-low target vs. the Lakers. Johnson is a career 46.8% shooter from the field and 38.2% shooter from 3-point range, so he’s due for some massive positive regression in both areas. Johnson has averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.18 with a comparable DraftKings salary this season (per the Trends tool), so don’t expect him to be priced this reasonably much longer.

Value

Kenyon Martin Jr. put together a massive performance on Friday, racking up 21 points and 15 rebounds in an upset win over the Hawks. He played 33.7 minutes in that contest, and Martin has averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He has appeal at just $4,300 on DraftKings, especially if Sengun and Gordon are ultimately ruled out.

Fast Break

Mikal Bridges has been an important part of the Suns’ rotation for years, but he’s started to take on a larger role offensively in 2022-23. He’s racked up at least 17 shot attempts in back-to-back games after averaging just 10.5 shot attempts last season. He’s also increased his production to 0.97 DraftKings points per minute in games without Chris Paul, and Bridges remains one of the league leaders in minutes per game.

Lauri Markkanen erupted for 51.7 FanDuel points in his last outing vs. the Suns, finishing with a career-best 38 points scored. I wouldn’t expect a repeat – he shot a blistering 15-18 from the field in that contest – but he should carry minimal ownership for a stud on a three-game slate.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

LeBron James returned to the lineup in the Lakers’ last game, and he didn’t appear to be limited. He played 33.3 minutes and posted a usage rate of 35.5%, but he only finished with 42.5 DraftKings points. He was slightly below average from the field in that contest, but the bigger issue was his nine turnovers.

James should be able to right the ship on Saturday. He’ll get a rematch vs. the Spurs, and they rank just 29th in defensive efficiency this season. James doesn’t stand out as a particularly strong value, but he does have the third-highest ceiling projection in our NBA Models.

Value

Jabari Smith Jr. hasn’t had the same start to his career as some of the other rookies in this class, but he’s started to turn things around. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in six of his past seven games on DraftKings, and he put together one of his best performances on Friday. He finished with 40.25 DraftKings points thanks to 21 points and nine rebounds, and he knocked down a career-high five 3-pointers.

Smith also played more than 38 minutes in that contest, and he should continue to see a ton of playing time for the rebuilding Rockets. He’s a huge part of their future as the No. 3 pick in the 2022 NBA Draft, and he should only continue to get better.

Fast Break

Jarred Vanderbilt is tough to trust on a nightly basis. His minutes can fluctuate, though he typically plays somewhere between 24 and 28. That’s not a ton for his price tag, but Vanderbilt makes up for it with solid per-minute efficiency. He’s averaged 0.99 FanDuel points per minute this season, and he posted a double-double and 29.0 FanDuel points in his last outing.

Speaking of inconsistent minutes, Aleksej Pokusevski has played as many as 37.1 minutes and as few as 14 across his past five games. However, he has played at least 29.1 minutes in back-to-back contests, and he’s one of the best in the business on a per-minute basis. He’s averaged 1.11 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, giving him one of the top ceilings for anyone in this price range.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Deandre Ayton has played some of his best basketball of the season recently. He’s coming off 50.0 DraftKings points in less than 30 minutes on Friday, and he’s posted a double-double in five of his past six games.

That’s caused his price tag to increase by approximately $1,000 over the past week, but he still stands out as one of the top options on the slate. The Jazz represent a solid matchup for centers, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.81.

Value

Kelly Olynyk is another outstanding value at the position. He’s played at least 31.6 minutes in four straight games, and he’s unsurprisingly posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of them. Olynyk has historically been an outstanding per-minute producer, and he’s averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s currently projected for another 30 minutes on Saturday, and Olynyk has averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.39 with a comparable salary and minute projection since the start of last year.

Fast Break

Jakob Poeltl is an interesting pivot off Ayton for tournaments. He doesn’t possess the same floor, but he provides a comparable ceiling at far less projected ownership.

If Sengun is able to return for the Rockets, he’s another interesting option at the position. He’s been a steady contributor all year, averaging 1.17 FanDuel points per minute, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.08.