Wednesday features a seven-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
Jamal Murray has been balling to start the year. We know what Murray is capable of when healthy, but health has been a major concern for him in recent years. Fortunately, Murray is 100% healthy for the time being and has responded with some big performances through the Nuggets’ first four games. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of them, and he’s scored more than 50 DraftKings points in two of his past three. Ultimately, Murray has averaged an outstanding 1.35 DraftKings points per minute.
Murray gets an excellent matchup Wednesday vs. the Pelicans. They’re merely 25th in defensive efficiency to start the year, and the Nuggets lead the slate with a massive 126.0 implied team total.
Murray’s salary has come up significantly since the start of the year, but he’s the best combination of value and upside at the position. He ranks fourth among point guards in projected Plus/Minus and projected ceiling.
Value
Injuries have absolutely crushed the Pacers. It started in the Finals last year, when the team lost Tyrese Haliburton to an Achilles injury. It has snowballed since then, particularly in the backcourt. Andrew Nembhard, Bennedict Mathurin, and T.J. McConnell are all out for Wednesday’s contest, leaving the team without their top four playmakers.
That opens the door for RayJ Dennis. He’s coming off a huge showing in his last contest, finishing with 31.5 DraftKings points in just 27.5 minutes. He’s averaged 0.89 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and he’s projected for another 28 minutes vs. the Mavericks. That’s a tough combination to avoid at just $3,800. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.19 (per the Trends tool).
Dennis leads all players on this slate in projected Plus/Minus, and his optimal lineup rate is nearly 60% in Sim Labs. That makes him a really tough fade.
Fast Break
Russell Westbrook may not be the same player he was in his prime, but he still gets the job done for fantasy purposes. He’s averaged 1.13 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s getting plenty of playing time for a bad Sacramento team. He’s logged at least 27.2 minutes in back-to-back games, and he’s responded with at least 36.25 DraftKings points in both contests. Westbrook is expected to see a similar workload on Wednesday, making him another elite source of value at the position.
Cooper Flagg has not gotten off to the start that most hoped for as a rookie. However, he’s still uber talented, and he’s had to deal with some brutal matchups. He struggled against the Thunder and Spurs, but those might be the two best defensive teams in the league. Flagg has posted a positive Plus/Minus in his two games against non-elite defenses, and the Pacers’ defense is far from elite. His optimal lineup rate checks in at approximately 23% in Sim Labs, which is the second-best mark at the position.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
The Nets are going to be a disaster this season. They’re still looking for their first win of the year, and they’ve allowed more than 130 points per 100 possessions. They’re dead last in Net Rating, and it’s hard to imagine them improving much as the season progresses.
That said, they’re still going to provide some fantasy value from time to time. Specifically, Cam Thomas should get all the opportunities his heart desires to try to score the basketball. He’s posted usage rates of 34.9% and 46.2% in two of his past three games, and he’s scored at least 33 points in both contests. That gives Thomas a significantly higher ceiling than his $6,600 salary suggests.
There’s also plenty of downside with Thomas. The Nets will likely play in a lot of blowouts this season, so his minutes are going to be volatile. On nights when he isn’t scoring well, he also doesn’t have much else to fall back on.
The positives still far outweigh the negatives for DFS purposes. When Thomas hits his ceiling, he has the potential to be a slate-breaker. His matchup on Wednesday vs. the Hawks is also a good one. The Nets are just 8.5-point underdogs, and Atlanta is 24th in defensive efficiency to start the year.
Thomas leads all shooting guards in optimal lineup rate, and his mark is nearly 10% higher than his projected ownership. That makes him an ideal tournament target.
Value
D’Angelo Russell started the year slowly for the Mavericks, playing just 15.1 and 8.5 minutes in his first two games. However, he’s seen a sizable uptick since then. He racked up 29.2 minutes and 45.25 DraftKings points in his third game of the season, and he had 30.4 minutes and 28.0 DraftKings points in his fourth.
As long as Russell continues to play around 30 minutes, he’s underpriced at $5,300. He’s averaged 1.13 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and he’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.38 with a comparable salary and minute projection. The Mavericks need his playmaking with Kyrie Irving out with an injury, so there’s no reason to expect a decrease in responsibilities on Wednesday.
Fast Break
The Jazz have been one of the biggest surprises to start the year. They were expected to be terrible once again this season, but they’ve actually been pretty competitive. Keyonte George deserves a good chunk of the credit. He’s made massive strides as a playmaker, and he’s handed out at least nine assists in three straight games. George is also still a big-time scoring threat, and he’s coming off 49.75 DraftKings points in his last outing. He’s averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute for the year, making him a bit underpriced at $6,700.
Lonzo Ball continues to play minutes in the low-20s for the Cavs, and he can do plenty of damage with that type of workload. He’s averaged just 0.90 DraftKings points per minute for the year, but he’s historically been someone who can exceed 1.00 DraftKings points per minute. We saw that in his last game, when he tallied 27.5 DraftKings points in 23.1 minutes. He’s another potential value option, with Cleveland boasting the fourth-highest implied team total on the slate.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Small forward stands out as one of the weaker positions to pay up for on this slate. Each of the four priciest options has an optimal rate below 5%, so your best bet is to save some salary.
However, Jaylen Brown does at least provide some upside. He’s been inconsistent so far this season, but his usage rate is up to 32.3%. That’s a big increase from his 28.9% mark last season.
Brown has already eclipsed a 41% usage rate in one contest this season, and he responded with 55.0 DraftKings points. That gives him a solid ceiling at $8,400. He owns the top ceiling projection at the position on Wednesday, with Franz Wagner and Lauri Markkanen trailing by roughly four points.
Value
Ben Sheppard is another player who should see a boost in responsibilities for the short-handed Pacers. He hasn’t been as good as Dennis on a per-minute basis, but he’s made up for it through sheer volume. He’s played at least 32.1 minutes in two of his past three games, and he’s projected for another 32 minutes on Wednesday. That’s a lot of playing time for someone who costs just $4,200, and Sheppard has posted a positive Plus/Minus in three straight games.
Fast Break
Brice Sensabaugh is capable of doing serious damage with minimal playing time. He’s coming off his worst showing of the year in his last outing, but he had 24.0 and 31.0 DraftKings points in his prior two games. He’s averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute for the year, so he’s capable of providing big value at $4,500 when he hits his ceiling.
P.J. Washington was ridiculously underpriced on DraftKings to start the year. His salary has since been corrected, but he’s still posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games. He’s scored at least 33.75 DraftKings points in three straight, and he’s averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute overall. He’s still a bit too cheap at $6,000.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
If the Pacers are going to stay competitive with all their injuries – which is a big ask – they’re going to need monster production from Pascal Siakam. That’s not a role that he’s used to filling, but he proved up to the task in the team’s last game. He posted a 34.6% usage rate, and he responded with 33 points, 10 rebounds, eight assists, and three steals. He finished with 65.5 DraftKings points, his second game with more than 60 on the young season.
Siakam has increased his production to 1.49 DraftKings points per minute this season, and his price tag has yet to reflect his boost in upside. He’s still priced at just $8,400 on DraftKings, resulting in a 92% Bargain Rating. He’s one of the clear top studs to target on this slate, with his optimal lineup rate checking in just under 60%.
Value
Sticking with the Pacers, Jerace Walker stands out as another potential source of value. He leads all forwards in projected Plus/Minus, and he’s racked up at least 21.75 DraftKings points in three straight games.
Walker has done that despite playing less than 30 minutes per contest, and he could see a bump on Wednesday. The team is going to be without Obi Toppin in addition to all their backcourt injuries, opening up some extra opportunities.
Fast Break
Like Flagg, Anthony Davis has had an up-and-down start to his season. He’s struggled against the two elite defensive teams the Mavericks have faced, but he’s had 52.0 and 56.25 DraftKings points in his other two contests. It goes without saying that the Pacers resemble the Wizards and Raptors much closer than the Spurs and Thunder. Davis has the second-highest ceiling projection on the slate, and he’s reasonably priced at $10,100.
The Bulls are another team off to a surprising start this season, posting a 3-0 record with a +7.0 Net Rating. That seems unlikely to continue, but they have some promising young players. Matas Buzelis is near the top of that list. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in both of his full games this season, averaging 0.89 DraftKings points per minute.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
The level of basketball that Nikola Jokic has reached is rarified air. It’s gotten to the point where it feels like he’s had an average start to the year by his standards, yet he’s scored 60.75, 62.0, and 72.75 DraftKings points. He’s done that despite posting a usage rate below 20% in two contests, which is basically unfathomable.
Jokic is capable of dominating a game in more ways than anyone on the planet. He’s racked up three straight triple-doubles to start the year, and he had 19 boards in his last contest. His average of 1.79 DraftKings points per minute isn’t quite as dominant as it was at times last year, but it’s still otherworldly.
He should be able to absolutely dominate the Pelicans on the interior, making him a clear building block on this slate. He has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus at center, and no one can touch him in terms of projected ceiling.
Value
Tony Bradley concludes our tour of the Pacers’ value options. He’s priced at just $3,500, and he should get plenty of run with Toppin out of the lineup on Wednesday. He’s currently projected for 25 minutes at just $3,500, and he’s a respectable per-minute producer. Bradley has historically had five games with a comparable salary and minute projection, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.16.
Fast Break
Walker Kessler has looked dominant for the Jazz to start the year. He’s averaged 1.34 DraftKings points per minute, and he’s eclipsed 50 DraftKings points in two of three games. He’s gobbling up blocks and rebounds on the interior, and he’s even knocked down a couple of 3-pointers. If Kessler can continue to produce at that level, he’s going to be significantly more expensive moving forward.
The same can be said for Nikola Vucevic. He’s racked up 53.5 and 56.25 DraftKings points in two of his first three games, and he draws an elite matchup vs. the Kings on Wednesday. Domantas Sabonis is not known for his defense, so Vucevic should be able to feast on the interior. He’s projected for less than 8% ownership on this slate, making him a solid tournament pivot.
Pictured: Pascal Siakam
Photo Credit: Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images
